Andie Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 North Texas will see a 50% chance of rain Monday. Tuesday brings 100% chance of rain. Most welcomed. It’s been very dry. Rain Monday. High 58. Low 39 Rain/Snow Tuesday. High 44 Low 34 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Not weather related, but…GOOO CHIEFS! Mahomes is an Alien! What a tough dude. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, Clinton said: Mahomes is an Alien! What a tough dude. Special and inspirational. Henne and Reid with the 98 yard TD drive. Amazing! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 As things stand this evening, EPS shows about a 20% chance of nothing and a 10% chance of 6+" for the Tulsa area. So the majority of guidance is going for something in the 1-3" range. That seems reasonable for now, but we won't know for sure until we can pin down the track of the upper level features of interest. Probably still somebody within 300 miles of here that gets 6+". 3 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 00z NAM 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 00z NAM Is this from better sampling or is this the NAM doing NAM things? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, Clinton said: Is this from better sampling or is this the NAM doing NAM things? Probably the latter lol. But that said, it drops 6-8" (likely 3-6" adjusting for it being 33-34F) in my area so I'd take it. 2 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 So, does anyone else find it weird this storm is coming from four corners and the low literally skirts the Texas and Louisianna coastline and then takes a beeline straight north almost through the Missouri boot hill? Several models depict this. Or is this fairly common and I've just never noticed it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: So, does anyone else find it weird this storm is coming from four corners and the low literally skirts the Texas and Louisianna coastline and then takes a beeline straight north almost through the Missouri boot hill? Several models depict this. Or is this fairly common and I've just never noticed it? It is NOT common, that's why it's so interesting. Too bad we have such lame back-drop temps this winter. Could've been a monster. 1002 mb SLP is laughable. Just yesterday? we were seeing multiple models flashing as low as 983 mb in NOH. Models are, shall we say, just a bit drunk in the d5+ range 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 0z GFS: 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, winterfreak said: 0z GFS: Well the 0z NAM and GFS are looking better. Let's bring it north some more. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, winterfreak said: 0z GFS: I can see this actually happening since in the 1st cycle this produced .4 -.60 amount of precip at that time 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 0z GFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, Clinton said: Well the 0z NAM and GFS are looking better. Let's bring it north some more. GFS stronger now - sub 1000 and maintains deeping into Erie before x-fer. Steps back in a very positive direction. I will sleep well 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 NAM's going to go big I think once in range. Even tonight's GFS dumps bigly on NWAR 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 0z CMC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: GFS stronger now - sub 1000 and maintains deeping into Erie before x-fer. Steps back in a very positive direction. I will sleep well I thought you would like that run. Good way to end the night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 GEFS mean looks to be coming in stronger than previous runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 GEFS indeed looks better for OK/AR folks. Lots of great members in there. 1 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, KTPmidMO said: GEFS mean looks to be coming in stronger than previous runs. Looks like it will take a big jump NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 0z GEFS a step in the right direction. This was the 18z run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: Looks like it will take a big jump NW. Big jump NW over next few runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, KTPmidMO said: Big jump NW over next few runs? More like an expanded snow shield. There are a few members that hit central MO well but Oklahoma and SE MO still remain the target area on most ensembles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Storm transfers and dies quick. Weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: More like an expanded snow shield. There are a few members that hit central MO well but Oklahoma and SE MO still remain the target area on most ensembles. Hmm. Hopefully we get a nice jump NW tomorrow. Maybe start of a trend? Need a nice jump northwest tomorrow or Monday for our back yard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Does anyone have 18z Euro snowfall map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 46 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: Does anyone have 18z Euro snowfall map? It’ll be obsolete here in a few minutes… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 hours ago, Black Hole said: As things stand this evening, EPS shows about a 20% chance of nothing and a 10% chance of 6+" for the Tulsa area. So the majority of guidance is going for something in the 1-3" range. That seems reasonable for now, but we won't know for sure until we can pin down the track of the upper level features of interest. Probably still somebody within 300 miles of here that gets 6+". Pretty wild spread. I was reading the disco earlier. I understand going with the lower amount based on that and possible melting in spite of a time when its really going to puke great snow here by all modeled outcomes. Fun couple of days coming up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 While not the Big Dog that I initially that this would end up being, I like where I sit to score a few inches of snow and kick start the return of Winter around these parts. 0z Euro and the other models are showing better interaction with the the northern energy that should keep lighter snows falling for a longer period of time that should add up in spots. I like these set ups bc it usually produces bonus snows. 0z EPS seems to be targeting the S MO/C IL/IN up into SE MI... 0z EPS... @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole @Iceresistancestill in the game and looking like a few inches or more coming your way... 0z Euro Control...little more generous down in OK....mind you, it takes into account whats falling today as I don't have the ability to separate the systems... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 @Tom I like what I see there. There's huge agreement amongst most members of my area getting 6-10 inches at the moment. @jaster220, I think you're getting cut off this one but looks like the arctic express after may drop off some snow up there after. It looks like a repeat blitz to start February, but we gotta see how this shakes out first. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, Tom said: While not the Big Dog that I initially that this would end up being, I like where I sit to score a few inches of snow and kick start the return of Winter around these parts. 0z Euro and the other models are showing better interaction with the the northern energy that should keep lighter snows falling for a longer period of time that should add up in spots. I like these set ups bc it usually produces bonus snows. 0z EPS seems to be targeting the S MO/C IL/IN up into SE MI... 0z EPS... @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole @Iceresistancestill in the game and looking like a few inches or more coming your way... 0z Euro Control...little more generous down in OK....mind you, it takes into account whats falling today as I don't have the ability to separate the systems... 6z GFS showing that interaction with the northern wave and keeps snow falling in the KC area long enough to lay down 2-4 inches. @jaster220 @Niko along with the Okies will like the look of this mornings runs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 06z GEFS... Some pretty decent hits for a lot of us who have been missed... 0z EPS...the theme here is pretty clear that we have ourselves the 1st significant snowfall of the season that'll lay down a fairly wide swath of snow as @jaster220commented on the other day. We haven't yet seen a southern streamer to deliver the goods this winter season, so lets see how this one pan outs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 6z NAM 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 "Lols at number 5". Haha. That would be destructive. Probably going to go ahead and rule out my 30 inch snowstorm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, OKwx2k4 said: "Lols at number 5". Haha. That would be destructive. Probably going to go ahead and rule out my 30 inch snowstorm. The scenery down your way is going to be gorgeous with that wet sticky snow. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 06z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 27 minutes ago, Tom said: 06z Euro... Appreciate all the maps guys! Snowing right now at maybe 1/2" per hr. and whitening things up nicely for once. Not sure what happened to the track with this one? Thought it was going more N than E but by all accounts the snow swath angle is more E than N up this way. That may be a good thing for DTW, not making ORD Peeps happy at all. Does OH and IN steal the thunder? Both EPS and GEFS have the heaviest down there and I just get grazed. Looking at the 06z Euro OP above it doesn't match the snow totals there (1/2 is left-overs from today). With that track right up through OH (basically CINCI to CLE) I don't see how you get the heavy totals shown on most of the ENS members. Either they are still lagging and will be adjusting a bit NW, or I am missing something. Track on the Euro should be $$ for here, but it's weaker SN rate reflection is pretty lame for a strengthening SLP with GOMEX connections. Could be a side effect of not having a truly cold air mass to work with. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Appreciate all the maps guys! Snowing right now at maybe 1/2" per hr. and whitening things up nicely for once. Not sure what happened to the track with this one? Thought it was going more N than E but by all accounts the snow swath angle is more E than N up this way. That may be a good thing for DTW, not making ORD Peeps happy at all. Does OH and IN steal the thunder? Both EPS and GEFS have the heaviest down there and I just get grazed. Looking at the 06z Euro OP above it doesn't match the snow totals there (1/2 is left-overs from today). With that track right up through OH (basically CINCI to CLE) I don't see how you get the heavy totals shown on most of the ENS members. Either they are still lagging and will be adjusting a bit NW, or I am missing something. Track on the Euro should be $$ for here, but it's weaker SN rate reflection is pretty lame for a strengthening SLP with GOMEX connections. Could be a side effect of not having a truly cold air mass to work with. Unless this pulls NW. you should score decent for this storm. I don’t think the dreaded mix or dry slot is going to be a problem for your area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, Stacsh said: Unless this pulls NW. you should score decent for this storm. I don’t think the dreaded mix or dry slot is going to be a problem for your area. Thx. Yeah the NW track is a double-edged sword here. More dynamic system over all and I end up with either a dry-slotting or some flip to a mixy mess. This one being more pedestrian is sadly, just what this place needs. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 12z NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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