Stacsh Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 I have a hard time believing this system will only produce 2” of snow here as forecasted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Get ready to get inundated!!!! 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 20230124_225112.mp4 Getting white fast! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 24 minutes ago, Clinton said: 20230124_225112.mp4 13.62 MB · 0 downloads Getting white fast! Same here. Big fat flakes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Light snow is falling now and I have 2 inches on the ground with a temperature of 31. It should be beautiful day with the snow stuck to everything, I'll try to take some pictures after work today if it doesn't melt first. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 hours ago, JSMY said: I rarely post as I’m just a novice winter weather watcher. I’ve learned so much through this forum the last few years I’ve been a member. I tell my husband and son what @Tom is seeing. @jaster220 @Niko Ive read your posts for years. I’m just down to your South in Brownstown. (Monroe county line) Thank you all for sharing your insights and excitement. I’ve got big hopes down here for this one! Nice to hear from you and thanks for the kind words...thanks @Nikoas well. It's nice to see more members chime in over this part of the Sub. Should be a fun storm to track throughout the day. I woke up to snow falling at a steady pace and have just under 1" of new snow OTG. Cheers to all! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Light snow is falling now and I have 2 inches on the ground with a temperature of 31. It should be beautiful day with the snow stuck to everything, I'll try to take some pictures after work today if it doesn't melt first. Was this about what you expected from this system? I'm just catching up on all the posts and model data. I think the NAM nailed the enhanced frontogenesis over N IL. The radar looks good and the snowfal rates are decent up this way about 3/4 mile. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 NAM and CMC did well here. I'm up to 2.7 inches now and some 4 inch reports near Pleasant Hill, MO on the SE side of KC. Yes it is and I'm happy with what I got. Glad your getting some snow good luck today! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 @Tony @FV-Mike Radar looks great for NE IL...nice burst of heavier SN rates as they have picked up over here. Dendrites are nice and big which is accumulating quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Snowflakes starting to fall at 5:50 a.m…. almost forgot what snow looked like, lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 0z Euro...just for fun bc it's nowcast time, however, I will say, the Euro was not the KING as far as model trends up this way. Like @Clinton said, the NAM and CMC really did a better job a couple days ago and then the GFS "saw" the heavier snows up here. It also looks like there is a good chance of seeing embedded heavier snow showers/squalls on Thursday that can add a quick 1" or so. The inverted trough over C IL/N IL is in a perfect alignment to enhance the snowfall and radar is looking quite nice...this storm is really starting to show signs of coming together for the Lower Lakes. All the models show it tracking just SE of DTW over CLE into the mid 990'smb. Classic OHV Cutter! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 According to official NWS forecast for Grand Rapids for today they are still thinking there will be just around 2 to 3" here in metro GR. Very light snow started here just a few minutes ago. Looking out the window there is now a trace of snow on the ground. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just measured 2.2" on my deck and radar still looking good. Gosh, we may be able to overachieve up this way. It's snowing at about 0.5"/hr. 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSmokey Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 We got right around 2.7 inches here in N. Overland Park. I’ll take it! 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just got that bump, went from. WWA to a WSW this morning! Woke up to this so far! Sweet! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 8 hours ago, Stacsh said: I have a hard time believing this system will only produce 2” of snow here as forecasted. I see totals have been slightly bumped up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Woke up to a freezing 31 degrees this morning! Snow is over and the streets are just wet to a light slush since temps never got cold enough. I would say we got about 2 inches on the ground, would have been 6-8 had it been 5 degrees colder! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Upgraded to WSW Finally!!!! Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 MIZ069-070-075-252100- /O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0001.230125T1200Z-230126T0300Z/ /O.EXA.KDTX.WS.W.0001.230125T1000Z-230126T0100Z/ Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw- Including the cities of Pontiac, Warren, and Ann Arbor 353 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Oakland, Macomb and Washtenaw Counties. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A narrow band of light snow has lifted into southern Michigan as of 4am. There may be minor accumulations with this lead band which could lead to hazardous conditions during the morning peak travel period. Snow will then steadily increase in coverage and intensity with the peak of the heaviest snowfall rates between 10 AM and 4 PM Wednesday. Travel conditions will deteriorate considerably during the afternoon into the evening commute. 2 2 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Niko said: Upgraded to WSW Finally!!!! Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 MIZ069-070-075-252100- /O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0001.230125T1200Z-230126T0300Z/ /O.EXA.KDTX.WS.W.0001.230125T1000Z-230126T0100Z/ Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw- Including the cities of Pontiac, Warren, and Ann Arbor 353 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Oakland, Macomb and Washtenaw Counties. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A narrow band of light snow has lifted into southern Michigan as of 4am. There may be minor accumulations with this lead band which could lead to hazardous conditions during the morning peak travel period. Snow will then steadily increase in coverage and intensity with the peak of the heaviest snowfall rates between 10 AM and 4 PM Wednesday. Travel conditions will deteriorate considerably during the afternoon into the evening commute. Awesome! The precip shield looks like a blue wall heading right for us! I think maybe this storm has some surprises (good) for a lot of us here. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 I’m going to have 2” by 10 am 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said: Awesome! The precip shield looks like a blue wall heading right for us! I think maybe this storm has some surprises (good) for a lot of us here. I agree...I am seeing some potentially 10"+ for some locales w/ this storm. Surprises are certainly possible w/ this major snowstorm. Btw: Great pics this morning from ur neck of the woods. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said: Awesome! The precip shield looks like a blue wall heading right for us! I think maybe this storm has some surprises (good) for a lot of us here. Yup, when I woke up this morning and looked at the radar it looked like this was going to really start intensifying. You guys are golden! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 17 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said: Just got that bump, went from. WWA to a WSW this morning! Woke up to this so far! Sweet! Ol' Man Winter has cometh back to our neck of the woods! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 06z Euro...nice signal showing up for N IL to get some snow squalls during the day on Thursday. I'm diggin' it! I could live with this and to top it off, it'll be a bit colder and during the day. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 NOAA: On a broad scale the system looks really good. A deep upper level trough is carved out through the Plains with a 140 knot jet rounding the trough tonight and turning up toward the eastern Lakes and directing a strong mid level wave into the lower Great Lakes. A slowly strengthening surface low will track up through Ohio and western Lake Erie this evening keeping SE MI in the favorable nw quadrant of snowfall production. Upper level diffluence will be overhead with a coupled jet, as well as a secondary shortwave dropping into the trough which should keep the lead wave from becoming too progressive by introducing height falls to the west. The track of the surface low to the west of Cleveland lifting into the Ontario Peninsula has become the consensus and changed little over the last 24 hours. This is an ideal track to bring the deformation axis and trowal across SE MI. The system will have good moisture as it was over the deep south yesterday with moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico. PWATs will rise to around a half inch with specific humidities at least 2-3 g/Kg and potentially up to 4. Soundings show saturation up through about 550 mb which encompasses the DGZ which is centered around 600mb which good omega in that region. Weather pattern will remain active through the upcoming week as we remain near the base of the longwave trough which will steer a train of shortwaves through/near the region. The first wave will be centered to the north over Ontario but the trough will swing through lower MI bringing a chance of snowfall Friday Night. The second, possibly more impactful, system will track along a baroclinic zone draped across southern MI Saturday night through Sunday. This would be a longer duration event as the main boundary moves very little and the shearing out wave rides right along it overhead. Additional waves may affect the area Monday and Wednesday. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 DTX Aviation: VLIFR conditions will be possible at times as +SN lifts through far southeast forecast area. Have continued to include a TEMPO for 1/4SM +SN during the 18-21Z time window. 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 30 minutes ago, Niko said: NOAA: On a broad scale the system looks really good. A deep upper level trough is carved out through the Plains with a 140 knot jet rounding the trough tonight and turning up toward the eastern Lakes and directing a strong mid level wave into the lower Great Lakes. A slowly strengthening surface low will track up through Ohio and western Lake Erie this evening keeping SE MI in the favorable nw quadrant of snowfall production. Upper level diffluence will be overhead with a coupled jet, as well as a secondary shortwave dropping into the trough which should keep the lead wave from becoming too progressive by introducing height falls to the west. The track of the surface low to the west of Cleveland lifting into the Ontario Peninsula has become the consensus and changed little over the last 24 hours. This is an ideal track to bring the deformation axis and trowal across SE MI. The system will have good moisture as it was over the deep south yesterday with moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico. PWATs will rise to around a half inch with specific humidities at least 2-3 g/Kg and potentially up to 4. Soundings show saturation up through about 550 mb which encompasses the DGZ which is centered around 600mb which good omega in that region. Weather pattern will remain active through the upcoming week as we remain near the base of the longwave trough which will steer a train of shortwaves through/near the region. The first wave will be centered to the north over Ontario but the trough will swing through lower MI bringing a chance of snowfall Friday Night. The second, possibly more impactful, system will track along a baroclinic zone draped across southern MI Saturday night through Sunday. This would be a longer duration event as the main boundary moves very little and the shearing out wave rides right along it overhead. Additional waves may affect the area Monday and Wednesday. About as sweet an AFD as one could ask for really 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: About as sweet an AFD as one could ask for really Ikr....we are getting into a very active, snowy pattern and most importantly, a frigid one coming up down the road. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Good to see the Euro cave last minute to the short range models. My call of a more NW track to really focus SE Michigan was spot on. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Should score around 3-4" of daylight snow out of this today. Not a bad consolation prize. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Should score around 3-4" of daylight snow out of this today. Not a bad consolation prize. Says the guy who said it won’t snow this month and wanted to extend the snowless streak to break a Jan record. You know I’m just teasing you! Reverse psychology at play! 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Tom said: Says the guy who said it won’t snow this month and wanted to extend the snowless streak to break a Jan record. You know I’m just teasing you! Reverse psychology at play! Made it by 6 days. I'm a fan of unusual weather, so let it snow or let's go on an anomalous streak of weird weather. Either way, the nightmare of the last 4 weeks is over. I'm already looking ahead for the next two storms to see what happens. The 3rd in line, if it stays a little north, will lay down some much colder snow and really kick start our 2 weeks of winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 NAM did a great job. looks great out there. next 2 weeks look fun! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 I was pretty busy at work yesterday as parts of the NWS Tulsa CWA had up to a foot of snow. However, a very stubborn warm pocket persisted almost all day right in the city. I got absolutely zero accumulation. It only switched over to wet snow at about 9 PM last night for me. What a total waste. Now I got all this pent up emotion and stress and nothing to do with it lol 5 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 My best guess for what happened is 1.) The best warm advection lift was to my southeast and 2.) the best upper air lift was to my south-southwest. 3.) This left a little gap over NE OK. The wrap around was just getting going as the storm went east. Then on top of all that 4) I think there was some mesoscale subsidence north of the banding yesterday. In retrospect there were some model runs with some hints that this might happen to a degree, but getting shutout was definitely a surprise. 1 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just came back from shoveling the wet and heavy snow. Very dense and you can see the "blue-ish" tint to it as you pile it up. Just a hair over 3"...anything more is bonus for me as my original call was 3" for MBY. The snow on the concrete was about 2" so there is melting going on. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 I probably need some time to unwind, but the pattern does look favorable for a snow/ice risk starting the middle of next week. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up_north_MI Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just looked at the radar and is it just me or is this storm seem to be moving more north and west then was forecasted last night? For Michigan anyway it almost looks like areas out by Lansing could do better then the Detroit area. I’m no Meteorologist and I could be way off but just looking at the radar that’s how it looks to me. Almost looks like there’s some dry air getting wrapped up in it moving through south east MI. Guess we’ll know in about 8 hours or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Snow picking up here , flakes getting bigger. Just picked up visibility less than a 1/4 mile. IMG_4696.MOV IMG_4697.MOV 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said: Just looked at the radar and is it just me or is this storm seem to be moving more north and west then was forecasted last night? For Michigan anyway it almost looks like areas out by Lansing could do better then the Detroit area. I’m no Meteorologist and I could be way off but just looking at the radar that’s how it looks to me. Almost looks like there’s some dry air getting wrapped up in it moving through south east MI. Guess we’ll know in about 8 hours or so. I think it will really fill in later in the SE side. But yes, these systems always are 30 miles NW of the heaviest forecasted snowfall area. Not sure why, but it usually feels that way. I could be wrong though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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