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1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter


Tom

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7 hours ago, JSMY said:

I rarely post as I’m just a novice winter weather watcher. I’ve learned so much through this forum the last few years I’ve been a member. I tell my husband and son what @Tom is seeing. @jaster220 @Niko Ive read your posts for years. I’m just down to your South in Brownstown. (Monroe county line) Thank you all for sharing your insights and excitement. I’ve got big hopes down here for this one! 

Nice to hear from you and thanks for the kind words...thanks @Nikoas well.  It's nice to see more members chime in over this part of the Sub.  Should be a fun storm to track throughout the day.  I woke up to snow falling at a steady pace and have just under 1" of new snow OTG.  Cheers to all!

 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Light snow is falling now and I have 2 inches on the ground with a temperature of 31.  It should be beautiful day with the snow stuck to everything, I'll try to take some pictures after work today if it doesn't melt first.

Was this about what you expected from this system?  I'm just catching up on all the posts and model data.  I think the NAM nailed the enhanced frontogenesis over N IL.  The radar looks good and the snowfal rates are decent up this way about 3/4 mile.

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0z Euro...just for fun bc it's nowcast time, however, I will say, the Euro was not the KING as far as model trends up this way.  Like @Clinton said, the NAM and CMC really did a better job a couple days ago and then the GFS "saw" the heavier snows up here.  It also looks like there is a good chance of seeing embedded heavier snow showers/squalls on Thursday that can add a quick 1" or so.  

1.png

 

The inverted trough over C IL/N IL is in a perfect alignment to enhance the snowfall and radar is looking quite nice...this storm is really starting to show signs of coming together for the Lower Lakes.  All the models show it tracking just SE of DTW over CLE into the mid 990'smb.  Classic OHV Cutter!

 

image.png

 

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Upgraded to WSW Finally!!!!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
353 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

MIZ069-070-075-252100-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0001.230125T1200Z-230126T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.WS.W.0001.230125T1000Z-230126T0100Z/
Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-
Including the cities of Pontiac, Warren, and Ann Arbor
353 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8
  inches.

* WHERE...Oakland, Macomb and Washtenaw Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A narrow band of light snow has lifted into
  southern Michigan as of 4am. There may be minor accumulations
  with this lead band which could lead to hazardous conditions
  during the morning peak travel period. Snow will then steadily
  increase in coverage and intensity with the peak of the heaviest
  snowfall rates between 10 AM and 4 PM Wednesday. Travel
  conditions will deteriorate considerably during the afternoon
  into the evening commute.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

Upgraded to WSW Finally!!!!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
353 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

MIZ069-070-075-252100-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0001.230125T1200Z-230126T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.WS.W.0001.230125T1000Z-230126T0100Z/
Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-
Including the cities of Pontiac, Warren, and Ann Arbor
353 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8
  inches.

* WHERE...Oakland, Macomb and Washtenaw Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A narrow band of light snow has lifted into
  southern Michigan as of 4am. There may be minor accumulations
  with this lead band which could lead to hazardous conditions
  during the morning peak travel period. Snow will then steadily
  increase in coverage and intensity with the peak of the heaviest
  snowfall rates between 10 AM and 4 PM Wednesday. Travel
  conditions will deteriorate considerably during the afternoon
  into the evening commute.

Awesome!  The precip shield looks like a blue wall heading right for us!  I think maybe this storm has some surprises (good) for a lot of us here. 

4B8FDD38-D89A-4EE4-B6DB-24DF524AF7EC.png

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5 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Awesome!  The precip shield looks like a blue wall heading right for us!  I think maybe this storm has some surprises (good) for a lot of us here. 

4B8FDD38-D89A-4EE4-B6DB-24DF524AF7EC.png

I agree...I am seeing some potentially 10"+ for some locales w/ this storm.  Surprises are certainly possible w/ this major snowstorm.

Btw: Great pics this morning from ur neck of the woods.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Awesome!  The precip shield looks like a blue wall heading right for us!  I think maybe this storm has some surprises (good) for a lot of us here. 

4B8FDD38-D89A-4EE4-B6DB-24DF524AF7EC.png

Yup, when I woke up this morning and looked at the radar it looked like this was going to really start intensifying.  You guys are golden!

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NOAA:

On a broad scale the system looks really good. A deep upper level
trough is carved out through the Plains with a 140 knot jet rounding
the trough tonight and turning up toward the eastern Lakes and
directing a strong mid level wave into the lower Great Lakes. A
slowly strengthening surface low will track up through Ohio and
western Lake Erie this evening keeping SE MI in the favorable nw
quadrant of snowfall production. Upper level diffluence will be
overhead with a coupled jet, as well as a secondary shortwave
dropping into the trough which should keep the lead wave from
becoming too progressive by introducing height falls to the west.

The track of the surface low to the west of Cleveland lifting into
the Ontario Peninsula has become the consensus and changed little
over the last 24 hours. This is an ideal track to bring the
deformation axis and trowal across SE MI. The system will have good
moisture as it was over the deep south yesterday with moisture feed
from the Gulf of Mexico. PWATs will rise to around a half inch with
specific humidities at least 2-3 g/Kg and potentially up to 4.
Soundings show saturation up through about 550 mb which encompasses
the DGZ which is centered around 600mb which good omega in that
region.
Weather pattern will remain active through the upcoming week as we
remain near the base of the longwave trough which will steer a train
of shortwaves through/near the region. The first wave will be
centered to the north over Ontario but the trough will swing through
lower MI bringing a chance of snowfall Friday Night. The second,
possibly more impactful, system will track along a baroclinic zone
draped across southern MI Saturday night through Sunday. This would
be a longer duration event as the main boundary moves very little
and the shearing out wave rides right along it overhead. Additional
waves may affect the area Monday and Wednesday.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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DTX Aviation:

VLIFR conditions will be possible at times
as +SN lifts through far southeast forecast area. Have continued to
include a TEMPO for 1/4SM +SN during the 18-21Z time window.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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30 minutes ago, Niko said:
NOAA:

On a broad scale the system looks really good. A deep upper level
trough is carved out through the Plains with a 140 knot jet rounding
the trough tonight and turning up toward the eastern Lakes and
directing a strong mid level wave into the lower Great Lakes. A
slowly strengthening surface low will track up through Ohio and
western Lake Erie this evening keeping SE MI in the favorable nw
quadrant of snowfall production. Upper level diffluence will be
overhead with a coupled jet, as well as a secondary shortwave
dropping into the trough which should keep the lead wave from
becoming too progressive by introducing height falls to the west.

The track of the surface low to the west of Cleveland lifting into
the Ontario Peninsula has become the consensus and changed little
over the last 24 hours. This is an ideal track to bring the
deformation axis and trowal across SE MI. The system will have good
moisture as it was over the deep south yesterday with moisture feed
from the Gulf of Mexico. PWATs will rise to around a half inch with
specific humidities at least 2-3 g/Kg and potentially up to 4.
Soundings show saturation up through about 550 mb which encompasses
the DGZ which is centered around 600mb which good omega in that
region.
Weather pattern will remain active through the upcoming week as we
remain near the base of the longwave trough which will steer a train
of shortwaves through/near the region. The first wave will be
centered to the north over Ontario but the trough will swing through
lower MI bringing a chance of snowfall Friday Night. The second,
possibly more impactful, system will track along a baroclinic zone
draped across southern MI Saturday night through Sunday. This would
be a longer duration event as the main boundary moves very little
and the shearing out wave rides right along it overhead. Additional
waves may affect the area Monday and Wednesday.

About as sweet an AFD as one could ask for really

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

About as sweet an AFD as one could ask for really

Ikr....we are getting into a very active, snowy pattern and most importantly, a frigid one coming up down the road.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Should score around 3-4" of daylight snow out of this today.  Not a bad consolation prize.  

Says the guy who said it won’t snow this month and wanted to extend the snowless streak to break a Jan record.  You know I’m just teasing you!  Reverse psychology at play!

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Just now, Tom said:

Says the guy who said it won’t snow this month and wanted to extend the snowless streak to break a Jan record.  You know I’m just teasing you!  Reverse psychology at play!

Made it by 6 days.  I'm a fan of unusual weather, so let it snow or let's go on an anomalous streak of weird weather.  Either way, the nightmare of the last 4 weeks is over.    

I'm already looking ahead for the next two storms to see what happens.   The 3rd in line, if it stays a little north, will lay down some much colder snow and really kick start our 2 weeks of winter.   

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I was pretty busy at work yesterday as parts of the NWS Tulsa CWA had up to a foot of snow. However, a very stubborn warm pocket persisted almost all day right in the city. I got absolutely zero accumulation. It only switched over to wet snow at about 9 PM last night for me. What a total waste. Now I got all this pent up emotion and stress and nothing to do with it lol

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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My best guess for what happened is 1.) The best warm advection lift was to my southeast and 2.) the best upper air lift was to my south-southwest. 3.) This left a little gap over NE OK. The wrap around was just getting going as the storm went east. Then on top of all that 4) I think there was some mesoscale subsidence north of the banding yesterday.

In retrospect there were some model runs with some hints that this might happen to a degree, but getting shutout was definitely a surprise. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Just came back from shoveling the wet and heavy snow.  Very dense and you can see the "blue-ish" tint to it as you pile it up.  Just a hair over 3"...anything more is bonus for me as my original call was 3" for MBY.  The snow on the concrete was about 2" so there is melting going on.

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I probably need some time to unwind, but the pattern does look favorable for a snow/ice risk starting the middle of next week. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Just looked at the radar and is it just me or is this storm seem to be moving more north and west then was forecasted last night? For Michigan anyway it almost looks like areas out by Lansing could do better then the Detroit area. I’m no Meteorologist and I could be way off but just looking at the radar that’s how it looks to me. Almost looks like there’s some dry air getting wrapped up in it moving through south east MI. Guess we’ll know in about 8 hours or so.

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7 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

Just looked at the radar and is it just me or is this storm seem to be moving more north and west then was forecasted last night? For Michigan anyway it almost looks like areas out by Lansing could do better then the Detroit area. I’m no Meteorologist and I could be way off but just looking at the radar that’s how it looks to me. Almost looks like there’s some dry air getting wrapped up in it moving through south east MI. Guess we’ll know in about 8 hours or so.

I think it will really fill in later in the SE side.  But yes, these systems always are 30 miles NW of the heaviest forecasted snowfall area.  Not sure why, but it usually feels that way.  I could be wrong though.   

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