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1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter


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4 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Should score around 3-4" of daylight snow out of this today.  Not a bad consolation prize.  

Says the guy who said it won’t snow this month and wanted to extend the snowless streak to break a Jan record.  You know I’m just teasing you!  Reverse psychology at play!

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Just now, Tom said:

Says the guy who said it won’t snow this month and wanted to extend the snowless streak to break a Jan record.  You know I’m just teasing you!  Reverse psychology at play!

Made it by 6 days.  I'm a fan of unusual weather, so let it snow or let's go on an anomalous streak of weird weather.  Either way, the nightmare of the last 4 weeks is over.    

I'm already looking ahead for the next two storms to see what happens.   The 3rd in line, if it stays a little north, will lay down some much colder snow and really kick start our 2 weeks of winter.   

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I was pretty busy at work yesterday as parts of the NWS Tulsa CWA had up to a foot of snow. However, a very stubborn warm pocket persisted almost all day right in the city. I got absolutely zero accumulation. It only switched over to wet snow at about 9 PM last night for me. What a total waste. Now I got all this pent up emotion and stress and nothing to do with it lol

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My best guess for what happened is 1.) The best warm advection lift was to my southeast and 2.) the best upper air lift was to my south-southwest. 3.) This left a little gap over NE OK. The wrap around was just getting going as the storm went east. Then on top of all that 4) I think there was some mesoscale subsidence north of the banding yesterday.

In retrospect there were some model runs with some hints that this might happen to a degree, but getting shutout was definitely a surprise. 

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Just came back from shoveling the wet and heavy snow.  Very dense and you can see the "blue-ish" tint to it as you pile it up.  Just a hair over 3"...anything more is bonus for me as my original call was 3" for MBY.  The snow on the concrete was about 2" so there is melting going on.

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Just looked at the radar and is it just me or is this storm seem to be moving more north and west then was forecasted last night? For Michigan anyway it almost looks like areas out by Lansing could do better then the Detroit area. I’m no Meteorologist and I could be way off but just looking at the radar that’s how it looks to me. Almost looks like there’s some dry air getting wrapped up in it moving through south east MI. Guess we’ll know in about 8 hours or so.

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7 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

Just looked at the radar and is it just me or is this storm seem to be moving more north and west then was forecasted last night? For Michigan anyway it almost looks like areas out by Lansing could do better then the Detroit area. I’m no Meteorologist and I could be way off but just looking at the radar that’s how it looks to me. Almost looks like there’s some dry air getting wrapped up in it moving through south east MI. Guess we’ll know in about 8 hours or so.

I think it will really fill in later in the SE side.  But yes, these systems always are 30 miles NW of the heaviest forecasted snowfall area.  Not sure why, but it usually feels that way.  I could be wrong though.   

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

@Tony @FV-Mike Radar looks great for NE IL...nice burst of heavier SN rates as they have picked up over here.  Dendrites are nice and big which is accumulating quickly. 

Came down nicely there for awhile and accumulated quickly. Now getting very slushy outside, especially on the roads.

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Beautiful winter scene in KC this morning! Snow came down pretty good throughout the night and I recorded 2.8 inches in my part of KC. That's on top of the 1.6 from Saturday night's snow. Pretty snowy week for KC standards. 

NAM and RGEM did a pretty good job for KC. YES, it did show 3-5 inches at times but I believe that actually fell...maybe. Hard to tell when you start snowing and it takes awhile to accumulate due to warm grounds. It was a beautiful night of snow, roads were slushy and snow covered between 2am and 6am, cleared up quickly after that. If it were 20-25 degrees I think the amount of precip. would have been a 4-5 inch snow. 

 

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47 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

NAM did a great job. looks great out there. next 2 weeks look fun!

It's been doing very well lately which is not the norm. I guess it's the model to follow now until proven otherwise.

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So far I have picked up 1.7" and puking snow is still later on. Its looking real great!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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@tStacshLooks like you are going to do a lot better than what was anticipated earlier on. Definitely a more NW movement of this major storm. Good call!

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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6 minutes ago, Niko said:

@tStacshLooks like you are going to do a lot better than what was anticipated earlier on. Definitely a more NW movement of this major storm. Good call!

I think the daytime snowfall and the lack of heavier falling snow will limit accumulations here to about 3-4" but yes, I had this feeling it would track just a tiny bit north of forecasted. 

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1 hour ago, FV-Mike said:

NAM did a great job. looks great out there. next 2 weeks look fun!

NAM completely got this one wrong for my area in central Missouri. The Euro was the one that nailed it for my area here followed by the UKMET doing a good job as well. GFS did an ok job. Not sure about other regions though. 

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@tStacshand @Niko Not sure how much snow will fall but just took a Just took a snow fall measurement  and there is now 1" of snow on the ground. The ground is covered nicely and there is now snow on the road. But parts of the driveway there is very little snow on it so there is also some melting. Light snow is still falling but not as heavy as it was earlier.

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21 minutes ago, westMJim said:

@tStacshand @Niko Not sure how much snow will fall but just took a Just took a snow fall measurement  and there is now 1" of snow on the ground. The ground is covered nicely and there is now snow on the road. But parts of the driveway there is very little snow on it so there is also some melting. Light snow is still falling but not as heavy as it was earlier.

Just by eyeballing it, I am most likely near 2" attm. The heavy stuff is yet to come.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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Look at what is coming later this afternoon.....

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_01/mcd0105.gif.5b546f7acc47fb08a79bd71fd83b092c.gif

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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Radar looks beautiful. Snowing moderately now and heavy snow is on the move for later this afternoon.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Good to see the Euro cave last minute to the short range models.   My call of a more NW track to really focus SE Michigan was spot on.   

Yeah, Euro gets points deducted for seemingly clueless on late-game NW shift the past 12-36 hrs

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, Niko said:

Radar looks beautiful. Snowing moderately now and heavy snow is on the move for later this afternoon.

+SNOW here now - pretty much right on prediction of 17z. Need these rates or nothing will be accumulating on salted roadways here in the city that had thawed ground and slightly above freezing temps. Not going to complain tho. This is SOOOO much better than anything I've been dealt the past 2 winters. Nice to see you and @Ferndale_man join the Warning party!

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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58 minutes ago, Niko said:

Look at what is coming later this afternoon.....

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_01/mcd0105.gif.5b546f7acc47fb08a79bd71fd83b092c.gif

Great to see in my "feed"

image.png.1c3acb3c2b208e39078e5a1563443add.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

+SNOW here now - pretty much right on prediction of 17z. Need these rates or nothing will be accumulating on salted roadways here in the city that had thawed ground and slightly above freezing temps. Not going to complain tho. This is SOOOO much better than anything I've been dealt the past 2 winters. Nice to see you and @Ferndale_man join the Warning party!

It was only a matter of time until they upgraded us to a WSW. You even mentioned it to me yesterday that it will most likely happen.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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3 minutes ago, Niko said:

It was only a matter of time until they upgraded us to a WSW. You even mentioned it to me yesterday that it will most likely happen.

SE Michigan representing.  Snowflakes are big enough that I don’t have to squint to see ‘em.  Lol!  
 

Our area is getting slammed!  Snow is heavy I think the snowblower may get some action today. 
 

Kids and adults with sleds.  What a site! 

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11 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

SE Michigan representing.  Snowflakes are big enough that I don’t have to squint to see ‘em.  Lol!  
 

Our area is getting slammed!  Snow is heavy I think the snowblower may get some action today. 
 

Kids and adults with sleds.  What a site! 

It is really coming down now. Heavy snow as we speak.

Speaking of sledding, I was actually thinking about it for later today, if time permits. Snowblower in full gear later tanite, if it ends at 10pm.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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The main storm was a bust here... only 0.6" overnight.  The snow has already moved out.  Models suggest another 0.5+" tonight as upper energy drops down from the north, but even that has been drying out on models.

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season snowfall: 16.6"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Visibility dropping.  This must be the heavy band. 

E29A971D-DE12-4FF9-9A22-4AB5C89F2445.jpeg

Yes..heavy snow here as well. Puking snow out there w/ visibilities less than a 0.25 of a mile. This heavy band accumulated so fast. I will take pics after the storm.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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It looks like over 3" so far imby and counting. This heavy snow band really boosted the amounts.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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Just took a snow depth measurement and here in my yard there is now 2" of snow on the ground. The roads are mostly wet with some slush on the side roads. The current temperature here is 31 with light to almost moderate snow falling. To the east at Detroit and Ann Arbor were heavy snow is being reported their temperatures are in the 32 to 35° range. So not sure how much snow will stick in that area.

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1 minute ago, westMJim said:

Just took a snow depth measurement and here in my yard there is now 2" of snow on the ground. The roads are mostly wet with some slush on the side roads. The current temperature here is 31 with light to almost moderate snow falling. To the east at Detroit and Ann Arbor were heavy snow is being reported their temperatures are in the 32 to 35° range. So not sure how much snow will stick in that area.

It’s sticking to everything here near Milford. .  Kids, trees, garbage cans roads . We are sitting at 32 now. Neighborhood kids wanted to shovel our sidewalk and driveway.  20 min later we get a knock on our door and one of them says “We gave up there is too much snow!”   Lol! 

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8 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Just took a snow depth measurement and here in my yard there is now 2" of snow on the ground. The roads are mostly wet with some slush on the side roads. The current temperature here is 31 with light to almost moderate snow falling. To the east at Detroit and Ann Arbor were heavy snow is being reported their temperatures are in the 32 to 35° range. So not sure how much snow will stick in that area.

Its sticking everywhere. Temp @ 32F. Its a mess out there. Beautiful scenery, especially seeing the snow come down so heavy. Its been awhile since I saw it snow this hard.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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2 minutes ago, Niko said:

Its sticking everywhere. Temp @ 32F. Its a mess out there. Beautiful scenery, especially seeing the snow come down so heavy. Its been awhile since I saw it snow this hard.

I watched the UPS truck fishtail on our street taking the corner.   Would not want to drive in this stuff.  Going to be and an ice rink in the neighborhood when we drop in the mid 20s. 

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I look at this snow system as a great base due to the wetter nature of the snow bc once the cold comes it'll be a solid glacier.  The next system will likely be pure powder....then another one??  Powda on Powda!

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19 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

I watched the UPS truck fishtail on our street taking the corner.   Would not want to drive in this stuff.  Going to be and an ice rink in the neighborhood when we drop in the mid 20s. 

Also, can you imagine w/ all the other snowmakers coming and along with that frigid air as well. It will look like a frozen "Tundra" here in our neck of the woods and also for our other members on here as well.

Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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5 minutes ago, Niko said:

Also, can you imagine w/ all the other snowmakers coming and along with that frigid air as well. It will look like a frozen "Tundra" here in our neck of the woods and also for our other members on here as well.

What was your snow depth prior to this storm?

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Snowing lightly, but at a pretty good clip and steady pace.  Main roads just wet, side roads/neighborhoods streets are snow covered.  Can't help but think  how close we were to a pretty big snowstorm.  Even here, well away from the center of LP, we are at 32-33 degrees with a N wind.  

I have 2.5" on the grass, some melting so I'm going with around 3" so far.  

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13 minutes ago, Tom said:

What was your snow depth prior to this storm?

Zero! Thanks to the raging sun yesterday and upper 30s melted my snowcover.

For the season, Detroit is ranking at 11.0" It will be real funny after a really mild month, if January ends up being above normal in the snow dept.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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Attm, I am at 4" here and puking snow out there.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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2 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Snowing lightly, but at a pretty good clip and steady pace.  Main roads just wet, side roads/neighborhoods streets are snow covered.  Can't help but think  how close we were to a pretty big snowstorm.  Even here, well away from the center of LP, we are at 32-33 degrees with a N wind.  

I have 2.5" on the grass, some melting so I'm going with around 3" so far.  

Impressive, considering how far away you are from the center of this. Also, I still can believe how perfect of a track this is. Its 100% perfection. Sweet!

Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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I was on the south side of Grand Rapids to my oldest sons house and I am now back home. The roads in GR are just wet with some sloppy mess on the side streets. There was a period of moderate snow fall on the way back home but now it is back to light snow falling. The temperature in at 31 with that snow falling and there is now 2.5" on the ground.  At this time it looks like there will be several more chances of snow in the next few days and we very well might pick up more lake effect snow than the snow we get from todays system.

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