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1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter


Tom

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12 minutes ago, Niko said:

This storm has my area snowing until 1AM Thursday. Long duration.

What? now we have a legit storm and no Accu-graphics from your side??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

After 8 hrs above freezing under full sunshine, I'm glad to see us comfortably below again.

image.png.6957e0b1a626fbc648ea31f0761dfad7.png

What the heck was the sun thinking of today??!! I was so pissed seeing it melting my beautiful snowcover and on top of that, right on the heels of a major snowstorm. 😐

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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Just now, Niko said:

What the heck was the sun thinking of today??!! I was so pissed seeing it melting my beautiful snowcover and on top of that, right on the heels of a major snowstorm. 😐

Ikr. Everything was solidly frozen even the larger puddles this morning. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, jaster220 said:

Ikr. Everything was solidly frozen even the larger puddles this morning. 

It was cloudy all these days, weeks and etc, and chose to break out today, out of all days. Crazy! As if it did it on purpose!

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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May not deliver on it's promises everywhere, but it certainly got the headlines map fired-up

 

23-01-24 9 pm CONUS Hazards map.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, Jayhawker85 said:

It’s amazing to me that we are in the heart of winter with a major storm and it’s struggling to produce below freezing temps! Even under the low in Oklahoma it’s still above freezing with snow 

Down south at least, it's like an early-season storm up here. Everything's a month and a half behind. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Giddy-up! for #winter!

GRR:

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

-- Accumulating snow expected Wednesday over Southwest Lower MI --

The main focus of the 7 day forecast is on the event which will
begin prior to daybreak along I-94. Snow will likely start in the
overnight hours towards 500am at places like Kalamazoo and
Jackson. The snow will spread north and move into the I-96
corridor between 700am and 900am, making it to the U.S. 10
corridor towards 1100am. We are sticking with the configuration
that we sent out earlier with most of the southern 3 rows of
counties southward in a Winter Weather Advisory. This includes all
of the I-94 row of counties in our area and the I-96 counties from
Kent to the east. The heaviest snow in our area will likely fall
across Jackson County where 6 inch amounts will be possible. 2-4
inch amounts will be common near I-96 and 3-6 along I-94.

The low is forecast to track from Western TN/KY Wednesday morning
to just east of Cleveland by evening. The heaviest snow with this
system will fall south of our area and near the 850mb low track
across portions of Northern IN, Northwest OH and Southeast Lower
MI. The strongest isentropic lift in our area and likely the
heaviest snow will occur from the morning hours into the early
afternoon. In the far southeast the heaviest snow will likely be
towards 100pm where BUFKIT overviews show deep lift through the
DGZ. Snowfall rates will likely approach an inch an hour during
this time frame towards Jackson. The biggest impact from this
system will be travel related. We expected both the morning and
evening commutes towards I-94 to be impacted with the evening
commute more impact up towards I-96. After several weeks of very
little snow it will be a sharp return to winter driving on
Wednesday.

-- Another quick burst of snow on Friday --

Another quick shot of snow will occur on Friday as a cold front
sweeps through the area. The front will be driven by a broad mid
level shortwave moving southeast across the Great Lakes region.
850mb temperatures will be marginal, but it appears this will be a
lake enhanced type of an event. A quick 1-3 inches will be
possible especially for areas near and to the northwest of Grand
Rapids.

-- Active pattern continues with additional snow possible Sat --

An inverted trough moving through the area will bring another
chance for snow Saturday into Saturday night. Both the ECMWF and
GFS operational runs are indicating 4+ inches of 10:1 snow so we
could be looking at additional headlines during this time frame.
The models have become more in line with one another that the
heaviest snow could be along I-94.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Giddy-up! for #winter!

GRR:

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

-- Accumulating snow expected Wednesday over Southwest Lower MI --

The main focus of the 7 day forecast is on the event which will
begin prior to daybreak along I-94. Snow will likely start in the
overnight hours towards 500am at places like Kalamazoo and
Jackson. The snow will spread north and move into the I-96
corridor between 700am and 900am, making it to the U.S. 10
corridor towards 1100am. We are sticking with the configuration
that we sent out earlier with most of the southern 3 rows of
counties southward in a Winter Weather Advisory. This includes all
of the I-94 row of counties in our area and the I-96 counties from
Kent to the east. The heaviest snow in our area will likely fall
across Jackson County where 6 inch amounts will be possible. 2-4
inch amounts will be common near I-96 and 3-6 along I-94.

The low is forecast to track from Western TN/KY Wednesday morning
to just east of Cleveland by evening. The heaviest snow with this
system will fall south of our area and near the 850mb low track
across portions of Northern IN, Northwest OH and Southeast Lower
MI. The strongest isentropic lift in our area and likely the
heaviest snow will occur from the morning hours into the early
afternoon. In the far southeast the heaviest snow will likely be
towards 100pm where BUFKIT overviews show deep lift through the
DGZ. Snowfall rates will likely approach an inch an hour during
this time frame towards Jackson. The biggest impact from this
system will be travel related. We expected both the morning and
evening commutes towards I-94 to be impacted with the evening
commute more impact up towards I-96. After several weeks of very
little snow it will be a sharp return to winter driving on
Wednesday.

-- Another quick burst of snow on Friday --

Another quick shot of snow will occur on Friday as a cold front
sweeps through the area. The front will be driven by a broad mid
level shortwave moving southeast across the Great Lakes region.
850mb temperatures will be marginal, but it appears this will be a
lake enhanced type of an event. A quick 1-3 inches will be
possible especially for areas near and to the northwest of Grand
Rapids.

-- Active pattern continues with additional snow possible Sat --

An inverted trough moving through the area will bring another
chance for snow Saturday into Saturday night. Both the ECMWF and
GFS operational runs are indicating 4+ inches of 10:1 snow so we
could be looking at additional headlines during this time frame.
The models have become more in line with one another that the
heaviest snow could be along I-94.

@Tomwas mentioning earlier in the month that end of January would be much more active in terms of snowfall and turning substantially colder, especially, heading into February. Very impressive analysis. @Clintonas well for great LR forecasting. That LRC tool sure does work!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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I rarely post as I’m just a novice winter weather watcher. I’ve learned so much through this forum the last few years I’ve been a member. I tell my husband and son what @Tom is seeing. @jaster220 @Niko Ive read your posts for years. I’m just down to your South in Brownstown. (Monroe county line) Thank you all for sharing your insights and excitement. I’ve got big hopes down here for this one! 

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1 minute ago, JSMY said:

I rarely post as I’m just a novice winter weather watcher. I’ve learned so much through this forum the last few years I’ve been a member. I tell my husband and son what @Tom is seeing. @jaster220 @Niko Ive read your posts for years. I’m just down to your South in Brownstown. (Monroe county line) Thank you all for sharing your insights and excitement. I’ve got big hopes down here for this one! 

Hello and welcome as a poster fellow Mitt Peep! I hope you do well along with everyone else in this game. I was you. I mean a decade and more ago I too was only a wx enthusiast and lurked w/o posting. Took a couple of years to get up to speed with all the online data that has become available in our www era. Hope to see you here more often.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Cold rain and 37.

Was it expected to begin as RN?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We could drop about 30 mb by this time tomorrow

image.png.f2d9dc39e9348163ff94aae7625ee36d.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z HRRR continued it's theme w about 6 hrs of legit pound-town

 

23-01-25 0z HRRR Surf h17-23.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Cold rain and 37.

I meant, does your local forecast call for a RN->SN event. HRRR doesn't look solid snow across MO until between 1 and 2 am

hrrr_ref_frzn_us_7.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, Clinton said:

My forecast says it should become all snow around 11.

Yeah, you're on the western end of the state makes sense. Hoping for a nice blanket of white gold for ya bud!

DTX storm update:

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
947 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

.UPDATE...

Evening observations are being monitored upstream for checks of
onset timing on the SE MI snow event set to begin toward sunrise and
then ramp up during the morning. The leading edge of precipitation
associated  with the textbook Gulf coast system is entering far
southern IL/western KY at mid evening. This is about on schedule
based on model comparisons which then project at least light snow
ongoing by the 5AM to 7 AM Warning/Advisory start times from the
Ohio border up to the northern Detroit suburbs. This initial phase
of the event puts down just enough accumulation for hazardous travel
during the morning travel peak in the Detroit metro area. Some
wavering of coverage and intensity is then expected around mid
morning as the leading isentropic ascent and moisture transport
plays out against resident dry air over the south half of Lower Mi
as indicated in the latest 00Z DTX sounding.

A transition to a more dynamically forced phase of the event begins
by late morning with a notable afternoon peak of coverage and
intensity. The afternoon phase is driven by an excellent combination
of coupled jet, short wave DCVA, and occlusion forcing that occurs
along and north of a classic NW Ohio surface low track. A band of
heavy snow is then expected around mid afternoon roughly centered on
a line from Adrian to metro Detroit to Port Huron matching up with
maximum elevated instability along the south flank of the TROWAL
axis. Snow rate of 1 inch per hour is likely during this time with
significant impacts to the evening peak travel period. Event total
accumulation of 3 to 6 inches Advisory and 6 to 8 inches Warning are
on target by the time snow diminishes Wednesday evening.

&&
  • Snow 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, you're on the western end of the state makes sense. Hoping for a nice blanket of white gold for ya bud!

DTX storm update:

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
947 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

.UPDATE...

Evening observations are being monitored upstream for checks of
onset timing on the SE MI snow event set to begin toward sunrise and
then ramp up during the morning. The leading edge of precipitation
associated  with the textbook Gulf coast system is entering far
southern IL/western KY at mid evening. This is about on schedule
based on model comparisons which then project at least light snow
ongoing by the 5AM to 7 AM Warning/Advisory start times from the
Ohio border up to the northern Detroit suburbs. This initial phase
of the event puts down just enough accumulation for hazardous travel
during the morning travel peak in the Detroit metro area. Some
wavering of coverage and intensity is then expected around mid
morning as the leading isentropic ascent and moisture transport
plays out against resident dry air over the south half of Lower Mi
as indicated in the latest 00Z DTX sounding.

A transition to a more dynamically forced phase of the event begins
by late morning with a notable afternoon peak of coverage and
intensity. The afternoon phase is driven by an excellent combination
of coupled jet, short wave DCVA, and occlusion forcing that occurs
along and north of a classic NW Ohio surface low track. A band of
heavy snow is then expected around mid afternoon roughly centered on
a line from Adrian to metro Detroit to Port Huron matching up with
maximum elevated instability along the south flank of the TROWAL
axis. Snow rate of 1 inch per hour is likely during this time with
significant impacts to the evening peak travel period. Event total
accumulation of 3 to 6 inches Advisory and 6 to 8 inches Warning are
on target by the time snow diminishes Wednesday evening.

&&

I'm excited to see how much you get.  Did you sneak into Minneapolis and steal the magnet from James?  All these storms coming up all end up in your back yard. 

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7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm excited to see how much you get.  Did you sneak into Minneapolis and steal the magnet from James?  All these storms coming up all end up in your back yard. 

Hehehe - shhh! 😉

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Why I encouraged my sister NOT to fly out of DTW tomorrow (she changed to Thurs). This is impressive by SEMI standards. Flash-backs of Bliz of '99 nightmare for Northwest airlines flight stuck for hours and hours full of people.

Issued at 657 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

AVIATION...

Early evening satellite imagery indicates a wedge of mostly clear
sky over much of SE MI surrounded by MVFR clouds which are expected
to fill in from the south and west during the night. MVFR then holds
until snow spreads in from IN/OH toward sunrise when a quick
progression down into IFR takes place. Some variation of intensity
is expected during the morning while the leading edge moves south to
north across the region. The peak snow intensity remains on track
for the afternoon with LIFR/VLIFR in 1/2SM snow on average, and dips
to 1/4SM in heavy snow also possible, for several hours as the low
pressure system strengthens while moving through the Ohio valley.
The low center moves over NW OH, Lake Erie, and southern Ontario by
Wednesday evening resulting in a uniform east wind increasing and
backing NW along the terminal corridor. Gusts near 25 knots add some
blowing snow to the pattern as system snow diminishes mid Wednesday
evening.

For DTW... An area of MVFR clouds near the OH border move toward DTW
mid to late evening and then hold with broken coverage until snow
arrives toward sunrise. A 5 AM start time remains on track followed
by a quick transition into IFR early in the morning. Some variation
of intensity is possible during the mid to late morning before the
peak snow rate occurs in the afternoon. Rate near 1 inch per hour in
LIFR/VLIFR of 1/2SM to 1/4SM is likely for several hours before snow
diminishes toward Wednesday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through Wednesday.

* High for snow late tonight through Wednesday.

* Moderate to high for visibility of 1/2SM or less Wednesday
  afternoon.
  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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^^^ Every time I see "Clinton" on your map I think that's where you are, lol

  • lol 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm excited to see how much you get.  Did you sneak into Minneapolis and steal the magnet from James?  All these storms coming up all end up in your back yard. 

Dont forget mby too amigo!!!! 😉

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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18 minutes ago, Niko said:

I just saw my radar and man, that moisture to my SW is just waiting to explode here in S MI. Look out.

@jaster220 take a look at ya radar.....veryyy impressive to what is coming.

Funny, but I really do not like watching radar. Might be due to living 2 decades in Marshall where GRR's radar was weak. Or it's just not my thing, Idk

Before they update overnight, going to put this here because it's the rare great reading material from my new office:

DTX pm afd

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

DISCUSSION...

The main focus early in the forecast period remains a large winter
storm which will eject from Texas this afternoon northeast into the
Ohio Valley and southern Great lakes from Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This system is expected to bring widespread accumulating snow
to the area on Wednesday with heavy snow expected at times during
the daylight hours on Wednesday.

The large scale features associated with this storm system have been
discussed in detail over the past few days and have only varied to
relatively small degrees between models/model cycles. Coupled upper
jet structure will evolve quickly this evening as an anticyclonic
lead jet strengthens and lifts through the Great Lakes into Ontario
and Quebec tonight into Wednesday and the larger cyclonic jet pivot
around the base of the storm system and arcs into the region. This
process has been rather consistently forecast and is again today so
the positioning of the developing cyclone within the couplet should
only waver to a small degree as it tracks from the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Ohio Valley and then eastern Great Lakes.

Light snow will begin to spread into the area from south to north
early in the morning with a transition to heavier/more widespread
snowfall into the mid to late morning. While the warm conveyor and
best warm air advection/moisture advection is displaced well
east/southeast of the storm center, a decent feed of moisture with
H85/H7 specific humidity values of 2 to 4 g/kg will pivot into the
area back into the deformation/northern periphery of TROWAL as the
cyclone makes its closest approach on Wednesday afternoon. Models
soundings show a very deep layer of moisture to H5 or higher,
focused in the 10 am to 4 pm time frame, as the best upper lift
associated with the upper jet circulation lifts northeast through
the region and the strongest FGEN occurs.

During this period, the best lift coincides with the elevated DGZ
region centered around 600 mb with a deep super saturated layer
underneath this. This should promote decent snowfall rates with an
overabundance of crystals of all configurations/sizes. Rates of 1"
per hr at times during this 4-6 hour window will be quite possible
with most of the snow accumulations during this event occurring from
the late morning to late afternoon period.

These rates will be sufficient to overcome the "poor" timing as the
best snow falls through the mildest middle of the daytime period
(although the 32F or so surface temperatures will still have some
impact on accumulation potential on paved surfaces). This may also
become evident downwind of Lake Erie as this is not a typical late
January event in the sense that there is little/no ice cover on the
lake and a pocket of +2C water sits in the western portion of the
lake. Although this should not have too drastic an impact, this may
cut back on accumulations just a bit near the shoreline.

Once this area of best lift/moisture depth passes, the zone of best
snowfall rates will narrow considerably to a track immediately along
and north of the surface cyclone track which will likely clip the
far southern forecast area from late afternoon into early evening.
It is in this area that the overall accumulations should be the
greatest and perhaps around 7 inches.

After careful deliberation, have opted to transition the Winter
Storm Watch into the Winter Storm Warning for the 3 counties in far
southeast Michigan. The highest accumulations seem most likely
nearer the MI/IN/OH state line, but the trajectory of the system
also puts downriver locations such as Wyandotte into a favorable
zone for a slightly extended period of moderate to heavy snowfall. A
Winter Weather Advisory will be issued on north into the I-69
corridor angling northeast into the Thumb where some lake
enhancement will also come into play late in the day Wednesday.

It should be noted that the difference in impacts between the
warning and advisory in/around the metro Detroit area will be
relatively minor in the overall scope of the storm. A majority of
this sector should receive 4 to 5 inches with local amounts possibly
pushing 6 inches during a 12-14 hour period Wednesday with the
higher end amounts, favored south of I-94, topping out more
consistently near 6 inches with some local 7 inch amounts where
higher snowfall rates are most persistent during the afternoon
period.

North towards the I-69 corridor, especially into the Flint area, 3
to 4 inches will be more reasonable, as the heaviest rates largely
bypass this area to the east/southeast. Into the Thumb region, some
lake enhancement will occur from late afternoon into the evening and
bring some local 5+ inch amounts as accumulating snow persists for
several hours longer.

Winds throughout this system should be modest, 15 to 25 mph, so
blowing and drifting snow, while not absent, should be relatively
minor in terms of impacts. The caveat will be over the Thumb where
locations along the immediate Lake Huron shoreline will receive
notably higher gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range from late Wednesday
into Wednesday night which will combine with the slightly high snow
totals of 4-5 inches to produce reduced visibility in blowing snow
and also some modest drifting. Even over the Thumb, snow should
taper off to flurries by 10 pm to midnight.
  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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No thd for this so tossing in here. NAM bringing the windy clipper snows Fri

namconus_ref_frzn_us_46.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@Niko This stretch coming our way may end up being one of those historic 3 wk periods SMI can get once in a while. There were a pair in the last triple-Nina. Jan '99 (one of the few times Detroit had 24" snow depth), and Dec '00 that featured a bliz and snow after snow. Stay tuned..

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  • Snow 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Niko This stretch coming our way may end up being one of those historic 3 wk periods SMI can get once in a while. There were a pair in the last triple-Nina. Jan '99 (one of the few times Detroit had 24" snow depth), and Dec '00 that featured a bliz and snow after snow. Stay tuned..

Indeed....Its going to get crazy here over the next couple of days amigo. I saw my extended and literally jumped off my chair. Fun times ahead.

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Snow falling hard enough now that it's over powering the warm ground and starting to accumulate. I suck at taking pictures at night but I tried to get the big fatties that are falling.

20230124_222747.thumb.jpg.3957ed13d6839b75610166e0bc05587c.jpg

20230124_223022.jpg

Great job amigo!!! Bravo!

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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