Niko Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Clinton said: 6z GFS showing that interaction with the northern wave and keeps snow falling in the KC area long enough to lay down 2-4 inches. @jaster220 @Niko along with the Okies will like the look of this mornings runs. This is beautiful.... 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 It seems models have reconverged on the idea of a heavier solution as a whole. GFS/NAM/CMC are better a bit further north. ECMWF/UKMET a bit further south. It's a good place to be as I still expect a slight trend north in the home stretch of this thing. Given poor SLRs, I am still expecting 1-3" at my house, but I wouldn't be surprised to see as much as 4-5" if things go just right. 3 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 12z RDPS. I like how the models are showing a nice trowel band running from mby up towards Tom. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 NAM brings the snow shield further north. I’ll take 2-3 inches out of this and I’d be content. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Black Hole said: It seems models have reconverged on the idea of a heavier solution as a whole. GFS/NAM/CMC are better a bit further north. ECMWF/UKMET a bit further south. It's a good place to be as I still expect a slight trend north in the home stretch of this thing. Given poor SLRs, I am still expecting 1-3" at my house, but I wouldn't be surprised to see as much as 4-5" if things go just right. I hope you are right, I need just a slight shift north. I'm just a couple counties out of 6"+ right now here in mid Missouri. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 ICON was a bit heavier and further north. Drops 6" in a narrow swath going right over my house. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Looking forward to our Rain, Snow, Ice mix Tuesday. No Tx needs the moisture and the weather change is long overdue. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Andie said: Looking forward to our Rain, Snow, Ice mix Tuesday. No Tx needs the moisture and the weather change is long overdue. Same here! Still in a severe drought and we could use every drop, regardless of the ptype. 2 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 CMC a bit further north as well. Solid for much of OK. 3 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 23 minutes ago, Black Hole said: ICON was a bit heavier and further north. Drops 6" in a narrow swath going right over my house. Can you post a picture of the ICON? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 12z GFS 12z CMC 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 DTX "more confident than normal" since the 500 mb look is very stable on this one. Attention during the coming days will be affixed on the mid latitude cyclone/winter storm system that appears set to track through the Lower Mississippi to Ohio River Valley Wednesday. Will not get into details much since the storm system remains some 84 hours out, rather will offer some commentary on the predictability of the system. Definitely think its noteworthy to remark on the little to no variability in the 500mb EOF patterns of the 22.12Z GEFS cluster analysis. This lack of difference is between both eof1 and eof2 and in the 500mb height difference signal at both Day3 and Day4. It is also interesting, or maybe should not be surprising then, to not see much d(prog)/dt variability in the 500mb vorticity field through roughly the first 60 hours. Generally looking at a low variance, strong closed off 500mb anomaly that digs clear through the Desert SW into northern Mexico. Thereafter, variability does begin to increase with the structure and timing of as many as 3 shortwave centers that push into portions of western Canada, but do not see much to suggest these vorticity anomalies will impact the phasing or strengthening of the low pressure system as it tracks northeastward out of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Survey of 22.00Z EPS member postage stamps is also suggestive of low solution variance. The EPS members are showing a single mode characterized by heart of cold side deformation/trowal impacting Lower Michigan (to varying extents) with warm conveyor missing well to the south and east. What will need to be sorted out is the quality and magnitude of moisture that will advect meridionally into the system here locally rather than just get shunted eastward. There are some indications in the deterministic solutions that suggests convection and latent heating over the Southeast United States could impact the low track. With that stated, the forecasted structure and placement of the coupled upper level jet into Ontario and Quebec supports a higher confidence in a second low pressure center hanging close to Southeast Michigan even if some east coast transfer wants to happen. Taking the lack of solution variability in the EPS and GEFS in account, confidence is higher than normal that the system will impact the area Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. The uncertainty is how far northward the deformation snow will impact and what sort of snow gradient will exist on the northern edge. 1 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Another look at the 22.06z Euro that shows the +SN swath much better imo. It really looks like that 0z GEM run a day or so back. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 A few even stronger solutions on the table per the EPS. Are we going to see even more bumps NW?? 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 31 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: Can you post a picture of the ICON? You can get this free on several websites...but here is the wxbell version. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 UKMET looking better for OK again. 2 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z GFS 12z CMC A nice shift NW by the GFS up here. But, it's the GFS swinging L and R until 24 hrs out, lol. Might even get a run that goes too far N and buries ORD to GRR 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 12z GFS 12z CMC 12z GFS is showing signs of strengthening as it tracks into IN...going back to its original solutions a few days ago?? It's also phasing a bit better with the northern energy each run. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 12z GEFS did appear to nudge a tad NW as it heads up into KY/OH...it's also showing more members focusing in on a solution and a stronger SLP in the mid 990's. 00z run... 12z Run... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GFS is showing signs of strengthening as it tracks into IN...going back to its original solutions a few days ago?? It's also phasing a bit better with the northern energy each run. Nice. Notice how it's also stretching the low hghts further to the NW which should help your area out a bunck. Just read CLE's morning afd. They expect a track bi-secting their CWA and a mix or flip to RN for areas SE of a line from CINCI to CLE. That should be as good as can be gotten for here, with a tiny bit of wiggle room. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Tom said: 12z GEFS did appear to nudge a tad NW as it heads up into KY/OH...it's also showing more members focusing in on a solution and a stronger SLP in the mid 990's. 00z run... 12z Run... I don't think it's done bumping NW either. Great to have an already good system that is slowly trending better instead of the bouncing ball systems we've been hit with lately. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, jaster220 said: I don't think it's done bumping NW either. Great to have an already good system that is slowly trending better instead of the bouncing ball systems we've been hit with lately. Yup, I totally agree that with lower heights showing up farther NW it'll help pull moisture farther NW...case in point, what is happening with today's system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 ORD's afd was a nice read. Expecting 3-5" across the metro N to S with room for improvements in coming days. Stay tuned! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Maybe I'm jaded by this winter (and today's failure), but not really expecting more than a few inches here at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 The snowflakes for me are likely going to be huge. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Wednesday Snow Likely then Heavy Snow High: 34 °F NOAA getting serious!!! 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 40 minutes ago, Niko said: Wednesday Snow Likely then Heavy Snow High: 34 °F NOAA getting serious!!! Thumper system in the making. My favorite from my youth back in the 80's when they were a fairly common feature. Nice that today's little system was just enough for a few plow piles. Not sure how much ground cover will remain down by me it's already melting from below around here with the warm ground. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 @OKwx2k4 Is that you under the first batch of Watch boxes?? 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 54 minutes ago, Niko said: Wednesday Snow Likely then Heavy Snow High: 34 °F NOAA getting serious!!! Read their afd. Nothing in there screams big storm. Lol at 2+" we got that today from an SLP 3 states away. Sometimes I don't get the incremental steps these offices tend to take. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Read their afd. Nothing in there screams big storm. Lol at 2+" we got that today from an SLP 3 states away. Sometimes I don't get the incremental steps these offices tend to take. Yep. When I read that, I was like them people working there must be on some kind of crack...(2"+ ). 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 22 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Thumper system in the making. My favorite from my youth back in the 80's when they were a fairly common feature. Nice that today's little system was just enough for a few plow piles. Not sure how much ground cover will remain down by me it's already melting from below around here with the warm ground. Definitely taking that northward jog. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 22 minutes ago, jaster220 said: @OKwx2k4 Is that you under the first batch of Watch boxes?? Check-out that blue color making a b-line towards SMI. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 18z NAM is getting real interesting. It continues to bring the heavy snow band further NW, warning level snows are now only about 35 miles to my south. It also wraps in some more energy in Canada and pulls it south. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 @Clintonlooks golden w/ this one as well as @OKwx2k4. Several inches looking likely. 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 18z GFS like the NAM with some interaction with some northern energy brings snow all the way back into central Iowa. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z GFS like the NAM with some interaction with some northern energy brings snow all the way back into central Iowa. The Lehs signal is interesting up here near in NE IL and SE WI…I’m skeptical to see anything at the onset but as the storms draws more colder 850’s it could deliver some extra moisture. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, Tom said: The Lehs signal is interesting up here near in NE IL and SE WI…I’m skeptical to see anything at the onset but as the storms draws more colder 850’s it could deliver some extra moisture. I noticed the darker shades your way. It's always good to get that icing on the cake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 24 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z NAM is getting real interesting. It continues to bring the heavy snow band further NW, warning level snows are now only about 35 miles to my south. It also wraps in some more energy in Canada and pulls it south. DTX mentioning the stronger look and interaction with the N component coming down from Canada. Surprised and not liking how weak the NAM remains. Probably due to the lack of cold air. Idk, but it seems like it would be deepening a bit more, lol. It does keep surface temps from getting out of control here tho. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Clinton said: I noticed the darker shades your way. It's always good to get that icing on the cake. Ya, I’m interested to see how the CAM’s look as we get closer. Seems like we are heading in the right direction instead of the opposite way. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, Tom said: Ya, I’m interested to see how the CAM’s look as we get closer. Seems like we are heading in the right direction instead of the opposite way. Isn't that the truth. NAM brings a nice looking snow shield into DTW and ORD at almost the exact same hour. Strange if that were to happen. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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