1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter

[jcwxguy]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

18z Euro...still SE of the model consensus...

 

06z

[tStacsh]

Euro still way south and weak for SMI.  

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Euro still way south and weak for SMI.  

This thing crapping the bed at the last minute?? Would so be our story lately. IF it does, I give up on "winter" around here, lol

[jaster220]

NOAA keeps me out of the dreaded "MIX"

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Euro still way south and weak for SMI.  

60z was not way south. It was a bit south but reasonable imo

[tStacsh]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

60z was not way south. It was a bit south but reasonable imo

I meant way south in comparison to the heaviest swath of snow relative to other models. 

[tStacsh]

1 minute ago, tStacsh said:

I meant way south in comparison to the heaviest swath of snow relative to other models. 

[jaster220]

9 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Thx for maps. Yeah, SE and weaker than GFS/NAM. Would typically say NW is way to go due to lack of cold air alone, but yesterday's event dumping 6" on Cincinnati of all places makes one pause and question what exactly this winter is up to?

[jaster220]

Old news, but DTX also keeping us 32F or lower during the storm looks nice

Preserving this morning's nice afd write-up for posterity:

Textbook coupling of upper level jet streaks over the central United
States will provide classic synoptic support for a winter storm
system from Texas through the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys
Tuesday through Wednesday. The recent trend of model data (ECMWF,
GFS, NAM, RDPS, and UKMET), different from a couple of days ago, is
to now preserve or harbor the absolute vorticity center as it tracks
to far Southeast Michigan or western Lake Erie basin at hour 72.
Based on the setup, this is to be expected as the models are
advertising a legit low reflection in the H3 mass fields collocated
with coherent cyclonic circulation through the depth of the
troposphere. The coherent absolute vorticity center matters as it
increases confidence the main cold side deformation should stripe
right across the cwa, keeping the midlevel dry slot south of the
state. Thus, thinking a long duration of moderate snow is in store
for Southeast Michigan including Metro Detroit. The low is shown to
deepen steadily upon approach, only really beginning to occlude as
it arrives. NAM thetae progs do show a narrow/thinning trowal axis
lifting northward into a greater chunk of the cwa. The prospects for
legitimate trowal dynamics are important as it should influence how
far northward +4" snow amounts will reach. Difficult to get too
specific with snow amounts yet as the entire system is not quite
within the hires window. The first item that will be monitored in
the model data in subsequent shifts is for the likelihood of
mesoscale snow banding. Low track, trajectories of the system
relative flow, and orientation of the isotherms suggest a good
potential for localized banding particularly south of I69. Duration
at any one location will be key both for the magnitude of the higher
amounts and also with how compact/diffuse the snowfall gradient will
be along the northern edge here in Michigan. The second item will be
the refinement of snow ratios as we get closer to the event.
Hopefully an increase in predictability on timing of frontal
surfaces aloft and the resultant intersection of the UVVs/lift
through the DGZ will provide some clarity on snow ratios. At roughly
50 hours out, preferred to go with a 10:1 or 11:1. Did not have much
issue with the collaborated QPF. Thus, the current forecast will
read 4 to 7 inches possible south of I 69 with 2 to 4 inches to the
north of I 69. Given the time horizon, some 50 hours out, will not
be issuing a Winter Storm Watch with this package.

[jaster220]

Hvy snow expanded into Wed Night. Would think a Watch is coming..

[OKwx2k4]

Two simultaneous problems would make this storm interesting...

1) Underestimating saturation in lower levels

2) Underestimating the trend to be colder that modeled at various times this year on the southern-end. 

That said, 6-10 inches is still looking like a good call for my area with everything I have looked at. Somewhere just to my north and east is going to get a footer in. I know it. I'm guessing a real number at around 8.5 inches.

[tStacsh]

23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hvy snow expanded into Wed Night. Would think a Watch is coming..

Looking good for your area

[Iceresistance]

I'm under the Winter Storm Warning for 3-6 inches of snow (locally higher)!

[jaster220]

DTX pm afd. As anticipated, at least a few counties go to Watch.

The region remains on the northern periphery of this heavier swath
of snow, but southern portions of the forecast area definitely
remain within an area that will likely experience some enhanced
banding/FGEN as a TROWAL feature arcs back around the cyclonic
circulation of the low. Will issue a Winter Storm Watch with this
forecast package for Lenawee/Monroe/Wayne counties as consistency in
model solutions suggest there is at least a 50/50 chance of around
7 inches of snow over far southeast lower Michigan from parts of
Wednesday morning into the evening as heavier snow shifts off to the
east.

[Black Hole]

Looks like 2-5" is the best bet for my house. I will probably get trapped at the office lol 

[jaster220]

It's official

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
350 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

MIZ076-082-083-240900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0001.230125T1200Z-230126T0300Z/
Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
350 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The onset of snow appears as if it will
  come mainly after the morning commute so the biggest travel
  impacts will occur as conditions deteriorate steadily from late
  morning into the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

[MIKEKC]

Winter weather advisory for KC, 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. (NAM would suggest the higher amounts)

Let's go SNOW!

This will kick start our swing back into a beautiful winter's end!!!! I see you artic air...

[jaster220]

6 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Winter weather advisory for KC, 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. (NAM would suggest the higher amounts)

Let's go SNOW!

This will kick start our swing back into a beautiful winter's end!!!! I see you artic air...

Yep, winter's real return starts with storm #1....and then??

DTX

At least one, and quite possibly two systems will track along the
southern periphery of this arctic airmass and bring the potential
for meaningful snow to the area from late this weekend into early
next week. At the same time, colder conditions will evolve with
highs in the 30s late this week transitioning to the 20s into the
end of the forecast period and quite possibly colder than that by
next week.

[ATW]

6 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Winter weather advisory for KC, 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. (NAM would suggest the higher amounts)

Let's go SNOW!

This will kick start our swing back into a beautiful winter's end!!!! I see you artic air...

I’m looking at a bit more here but am most interested in what the temp will do. 

[jaster220]

GRR

The system has fairly strong lift through a deep layer per BUFKIT
overviews. The lift stretches through and above the DGZ so we
should see good snowfall rates during the time frame of the snow.
The best snow should occur during the day on Wednesday with the
evening commute likely being poor for both the I-96 and I-94
corridors. We will be headed towards Winter Weather Advisories at
some point in the near future for southern portions of our
forecast area (I-96 to the south). Right now we think high end
advisory snow 5-6 inches is likely in Calhoun, Jackson and
portions of Ingham Counties. Not out of the realm of possibilities
though if a trend to the west develops that we would need Warnings
in South Central portions of the state. Stay tuned to see how this
evolves.

(then I peek at Marshall's grid-cast icons and it shows no snow)

[Clinton]

Excited to see a WWA issued here.  Grid forecast says 2-4 inches.

[Clinton]

One concern I have is the GFS has been persistent with this dry air wrapping in right over mby.  

[WinterSquall23]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Old news, but DTX also keeping us 32F or lower during the storm looks nice

Preserving this morning's nice afd write-up for posterity:

Textbook coupling of upper level jet streaks over the central United
States will provide classic synoptic support for a winter storm
system from Texas through the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys
Tuesday through Wednesday. The recent trend of model data (ECMWF,
GFS, NAM, RDPS, and UKMET), different from a couple of days ago, is
to now preserve or harbor the absolute vorticity center as it tracks
to far Southeast Michigan or western Lake Erie basin at hour 72.
Based on the setup, this is to be expected as the models are
advertising a legit low reflection in the H3 mass fields collocated
with coherent cyclonic circulation through the depth of the
troposphere. The coherent absolute vorticity center matters as it
increases confidence the main cold side deformation should stripe
right across the cwa, keeping the midlevel dry slot south of the
state. Thus, thinking a long duration of moderate snow is in store
for Southeast Michigan including Metro Detroit. The low is shown to
deepen steadily upon approach, only really beginning to occlude as
it arrives. NAM thetae progs do show a narrow/thinning trowal axis
lifting northward into a greater chunk of the cwa. The prospects for
legitimate trowal dynamics are important as it should influence how
far northward +4" snow amounts will reach. Difficult to get too
specific with snow amounts yet as the entire system is not quite
within the hires window. The first item that will be monitored in
the model data in subsequent shifts is for the likelihood of
mesoscale snow banding. Low track, trajectories of the system
relative flow, and orientation of the isotherms suggest a good
potential for localized banding particularly south of I69. Duration
at any one location will be key both for the magnitude of the higher
amounts and also with how compact/diffuse the snowfall gradient will
be along the northern edge here in Michigan. The second item will be
the refinement of snow ratios as we get closer to the event.
Hopefully an increase in predictability on timing of frontal
surfaces aloft and the resultant intersection of the UVVs/lift
through the DGZ will provide some clarity on snow ratios. At roughly
50 hours out, preferred to go with a 10:1 or 11:1. Did not have much
issue with the collaborated QPF. Thus, the current forecast will
read 4 to 7 inches possible south of I 69 with 2 to 4 inches to the
north of I 69. Given the time horizon, some 50 hours out, will not
be issuing a Winter Storm Watch with this package.

Just barely North of the heaviest snow in Oakland county, but close enough that even a slight wobble in track would put us in the heavy stuff.  Biggest snowstorms I have seen were never predicted.  

[jaster220]

45 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Just barely North of the heaviest snow in Oakland county, but close enough that even a slight wobble in track would put us in the heavy stuff.  Biggest snowstorms I have seen were never predicted.  

I think we are past the days of sneak Big Dog storms, but I'd also be surprised if this system is done with surprises before it even starts. I think (hope) all of SEMI will do well with some kind of NAM-like solution. 

[jaster220]

Has yesterday's date, but says "First issuance with the Watch" so I think it is current thinking. 

 

[Niko]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hvy snow expanded into Wed Night. Would think a Watch is coming..

I have the same forecast bud!!!! WSW looks likely by the 4AM package for my area. There is also a chance I could be in a WWA, all depending on the track.

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Niko said:

I have the same forecast bud!!!! WSW looks likely by the 4AM package for my area. There is also a chance I could be in a WWA, all depending on the track.

Will be interesting to see which model camp wins out. The further NW, or the steady SE. Won't know until game-time IMHO. Stay-tuned ofc. Funny how a storm for us and @Clinton is the only poster west of Chicago that even follows along and "likes" a post. All those WI/MN/IA/SD/NE/KS dudes ignore. 

[Stacsh]

I’ll take 2” and be happy.  I think 3-4” high end total here if it bumps 30 miles NNW.  

[Stacsh]

17 minutes ago, Niko said:

I have the same forecast bud!!!! WSW looks likely by the 4AM package for my area. There is also a chance I could be in a WWA, all depending on the track.

not sure criteria over there but 4-8” would be a WSW I would think.  Probably not on the west side though with our office.  

[Stacsh]

36 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I think we are past the days of sneak Big Dog storms, but I'd also be surprised if this system is done with surprises before it even starts. I think (hope) all of SEMI will do well with some kind of NAM-like solution. 

Yep.   Back in the 90’s I’d be in a winter storm warning because of  uncertainty in track and intensity.   As bad as the models can be (maybe there are too many?), accuracy is still much better come 24-36 hours than it use to be.  I remember being in WSW all the way to near the end of events when it was clear there wasn’t a possibility of accumulating snow.  Sleet/rain etc.   

[Niko]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Will be interesting to see which model camp wins out. The further NW, or the steady SE. Won't know until game-time IMHO. Stay-tuned ofc. Funny how a storm for us and @Clinton is the only poster west of Chicago that even follows along and "likes" a post. All those WI/MN/IA/SD/NE/KS dudes ignore. 

I am very curious to see how this storm plays out amigo. I am hoping for a slight NW track, so I can be put in that beautiful headline that you are in, otherwise, I'll be in that WWA. Btw: Congrats on ur headline!!!!

 

[Clinton]

39 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I think we are past the days of sneak Big Dog storms, but I'd also be surprised if this system is done with surprises before it even starts. I think (hope) all of SEMI will do well with some kind of NAM-like solution. 

The NAM hasn't flinched, if I can pull 3-4 maybe 5 out of this I will be thrilled.  Especially with what's coming down the road.

[Niko]

4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

not sure criteria over there but 4-8” would be a WSW I would think.  Probably not on the west side though with our office.  

It will be a close call for my area, meanwhile, my grid calls for "Heavy Snow." So, who knows, we will see what headline goes up for me. Looking like a fun storm.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Niko said:

It will be a close call for my area, meanwhile, my grid calls for "Heavy Snow." So, who knows, we will see what headline goes up for me. Looking like a fun storm.

It should be a nice storm for ya no matter which headline you get.  I kinda like the stickier snows just makes for some beautiful scenery. 

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It should be a nice storm for ya no matter which headline you get.  I kinda like the stickier snows just makes for some beautiful scenery. 

This is one of my favorite parts about a winter system not knowing how it will impact ur area. Suddenly, you see the outcome and you get surprised by it, whether good or bad. I luv that anxiety about winterstorms.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Yep.   Back in the 90’s I’d be in a winter storm warning because of  uncertainty in track and intensity.   As bad as the models can be (maybe there are too many?), accuracy is still much better come 24-36 hours than it use to be.  I remember being in WSW all the way to near the end of events when it was clear there wasn’t a possibility of accumulating snow.  Sleet/rain etc.   

Surprisingly, just 2 or 3 winters ago the NWS had that mega-bust and GRR led the way. It wasn't a Warning for snow as much as ice, which failed to materialize. Some offices felt bad enough to publish an explanation graphic as to what went wrong. I don't think GRR did that tho. 

[Clinton]

The SREF Mean map is at 10:1 and ratios will likely be less than that for my area but this is a nice extension to the northwestern edge of the heavy snow.  Even brings 6 inch totals to mby.

[jaster220]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It should be a nice storm for ya no matter which headline you get.  I kinda like the stickier snows just makes for some beautiful scenery. 

Unlike yesterday's straight down snow, there will be some breezy-ness this go 'round. May be some plastering of trees, but I don't expect the picture card images we got yesterday here. Even after work, the snow was sitting pretty on all the pines. Best wintry day since last winter. Btw, wrt the NAM you are our canary in the coal mine. 

[Tom]

Just now, Clinton said:

The SREF Mean map is at 10:1 and ratios will likely be less than that for my area but this is a nice extension to the northwestern edge of the heavy snow.  Even brings 6 inch totals to mby.

The local Mets up here are saying the LEHS will be a wild card given the marginal temps.  Hoping for 3” but anything less would be a disappointment.  Good luck down there and rooting for the NAM to score another coupe.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

The SREF Mean map is at 10:1 and ratios will likely be less than that for my area but this is a nice extension to the northwestern edge of the heavy snow.  Even brings 6 inch totals to mby.

Weak sauce up here. Wonder if it's the x-fer, or other model divergence, or what is the cause? Ohio robbing our moisture most likely problem.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

The local Mets up here are saying the LEHS will be a wild card given the marginal temps.  Hoping for 3” but anything less would be a disappointment.  Good luck down there and rooting for the NAM to score another coupe.

Thanks!  Hope you do well gotta like the trends of late.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Weak sauce up here. Wonder if it's the x-fer, or other model divergence, or what is the cause? Ohio robbing our moisture most likely problem.

I went back and looked and your amounts are on the rise from the previous run.  Most likely it will continue to rise as you get near the event.

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I went back and looked and your amounts are on the rise from the previous run.  Most likely it will continue to rise as you get near the event.

Oh, alrighty then. I nvr followed or used the SREF's. Is that the MEAN of all models, or just members of the GFS? From seeing others post them in graphical form they do seem to lag the regular Operational models. Thx for sharing

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Oh, alrighty then. I nvr followed or used the SREF's. Is that the MEAN of all models, or just members of the GFS? From seeing others post them in graphical form they do seem to lag the regular Operational models. Thx for sharing

I'm not real sure how the SREF Mean is done maybe someone on here knows.

[Niko]

[jaster220]

@Stacsh

WPC fresh update has snow all the way up to your place by 7 am Wednesday morning. 

 

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Will be interesting to see which model camp wins out. The further NW, or the steady SE. Won't know until game-time IMHO. Stay-tuned ofc. Funny how a storm for us and @Clinton is the only poster west of Chicago that even follows along and "likes" a post. All those WI/MN/IA/SD/NE/KS dudes ignore. 

I follow everything.  In this case, it's not my storm (maybe some light accum), so I mostly just sit back and let the Oklahoma to Michigan posters take over.  Of course, many storms won't hit me.  I'm always excited for whoever it does hit.  As the storm amps up over the next couple days, I'll have multiple radar loops going and I'll be reading all the forum posts.  I never ignore posts.  Reading them is part of my daily routine.  I'm always here.

I've been busy today, so I'm just now trying to quickly catch up with all the posts and haven't been clicking "like" as I might typically.

[jaster220]

Nice afd update out of SWOH. For up north, this is "meh" system but for down there it's a "very complex" system. I remember some killer front-end thumps back in the 80's when these S Stream systems were more common. Only last about 3-4 hrs but it is rip-city during that time. 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

Update.... Have expanded the Winter Storm watch southward this evening to include the Cincinnati metro forecast area/SE Indiana/ Northern KY. Strong frontogenetic forcing signal and the potential for rates of snow/sleet of />1" hour arriving right before and during the morning commute could produce major travel impacts Wednesday morning. Also, ensemble solutions showing good probabilities for greater than 3 inches of snow acrs southeast Indiana and the northern suburbs of Cincinnati. Although some locations in the watch may not meet warning criteria, the potential for a treacherous morning commute due to the rates and timing warranted the expansions of the winter storm watch. AR Previous discussion... Quiet weather during the day Tuesday as strong shortwave trough digs through the base of the longer wave trough to the west and begins to rapidly eject out into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. Surface low to slowly deepen as the wave moves through the Ohio Valley. Primary concern is the development of an WNW-ESE oriented band of heavy precipitation on Tuesday night after midnight moving quickly northeast across the forecast area through Wednesday morning. This is on the nose of strong low level jet, with accompanied very strong frontogenetical response and lateral banding. Forecast soundings suggest that despite tremendous low level warm advection, that this will be offset by the degree of vertical motion. Dynamic cooling of arriving warm nose seems to suggest a 3-5 hour period of heavy snow is likely to cross much of the forecast area centered on the morning commute. This is concerning for travel/impacts. This signal right now seems most centered on southwest Ohio/southeast Indiana, but there is a trend to involving more of Kentucky with successive receipt of ensemble and deterministic runs. Have expanded the Winter Storm Watch collaboratively southward with this forecast cycle, but starting to feel strongly with late arriving ensemble information this afternoon that more expansion - and significantly so - is perhaps needed. While there is some concern with warm nose walking right up to the 0C line in forecast soundings that overall warm advection becomes so strong that sleet/mix may dominate in northern Kentucky which would greatly limit totals, but regardless, this would still make for a treacherous morning commute so further shifts will need to consider an expansion of the watch south into more of the Ohio River area if ensemble trends hold. This is much less about criteria - and much more about heavy />1" hour/ rates of snow/sleet arriving right before and during the morning commute for a large portion of the forecast area. So not only do we have some uncertainty about the magnitude of the warm advection and how this impacts rates/amounts in this warm advection band, but there is uncertainty on the path of the low moving through the forecast area. A track up the west side of the forecast area would mean a faster transition to rain and warming boundary layer from south to north on Wednesday, while a track across southern Ohio would slow this warming and delay improvement especially along/west of I-71. A very complex storm and forecast adjustments to snow totals and watch / warning alignments should be expected. With the main deformation/comma head snows remaining /mostly/ west of the forecast area (west central Ohio and southeast Indiana will get in on some of this), the primary concern with this system for our forecast area is centered on this band of heavy precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, especially as it relates to impacts surrounding the morning commute.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[Stacsh]

9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Stacsh

WPC fresh update has snow all the way up to your place by 7 am Wednesday morning. 

 

close to a pretty good  track for my backyard but for some reason the snow bands don’t extend that far out from the lp on the models.  Will be interesting.  I feel like broad storms like this will have surprises and I wouldn’t be surprised if I outperform the 2” forecasted.  

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The SREF Mean map is at 10:1 and ratios will likely be less than that for my area but this is a nice extension to the northwestern edge of the heavy snow.  Even brings 6 inch totals to mby.

That would be a nice surprise!