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March 23rd/24th snow - Working towards average by May!


Madtown

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Let’s do it. It would get MSP to 50” officially on the season and ensure a ‘normal’ annual total for the first time since 2013-14.

I think your going to see more snow in April the way things are trending over the next 2-3 weeks!

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the NAM remains further north and much stronger.   

 

Yep, sticking with a Decorah to Dubuque band of snow.

 

namconus_asnowd_ncus_29.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Here are some maps from the 00z EPS...some pretty big hits...

 

 

 

DY0RsYfVMAUijwD.jpg

 

DY0RsonVQAAkO3L.jpg

Can we put that map over iowa? I didn't even know there were any snow chances for yesterday. Been busy following severe wx as of late, even though none of the events were particularly noteworthy.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Hawkeye, what's with the snow depth change maps and not the accumulation maps like Kuchera?

 

Tropical Tidbits doesn't have any kuchera maps.  It only has 10:1 maps and the snow depth change maps.  I figure in this case the snow depth map would be a better representation of actually amounts as it seems to cut down on the bogus totals.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This system will have some pretty heavy snowfall rates and should be some surprise totals when its all said and done. GFS is no longer shearing this out and models are expanding the precip field farther north with each run. I believe we will see the models become wetter again with each run as we are in March now and there is plenty of available moisture.  

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Does Hawkeyes still have those nice Ukie precip maps?

 

Only difference vs the last run is the current run dialed back the overall precip intensity.

 

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_90.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The only change from the 12z euro is something a few other models have also shown this morning.... a lessening of the rain totals in the sw part of the band.

 

If only this thing could sag one more county southwestward.  This could end up dumping several inches just barely northeast of Cedar Rapids, while CR itself gets a sloppy inch.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_84.png

ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_90.png

ecmwf_acc_precip_conus_90.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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30 more counties NE will be perfect

 

You drunk or just a typo??  :huh:  :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GEOS

 

I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this.

Welcome back to the forum...your magnet has been missed!

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I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this.

 

Welcome back to the forum...your magnet has been missed!

 

Can say that again! Wish he'd come at Christmas and dropped it off @ Tom's place for safe keeping.  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this.

How has the west coast been treating ya? 

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What you been up to bud?

 

 

Welcome back to the forum...your magnet has been missed!

 

I never left the forum. I just in the west subforum since I live in that region now. Work brought me out here. 

 

Can say that again! Wish he'd come at Christmas and dropped it off @ Tom's place for safe keeping.  

 

Lol. Yeah I guess you could have used it then. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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How has the west coast been treating ya? 

 

Just fine. Climate is nice except I don't see snow at my feet where I live too much. I have to travel 30-45 minutes to see appreciable amounts. Taken up snowboarding since I've been here the last year and a half. It does suck that there isn't many thunderstorms here outside of the mountains. The microclimates from one location to another are fascinating though. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I guess this thing is trending a little northeast? Or is it too early to tell if it is just model wobbles. Those are some really impressive totals in the Quad Cities area down towards Champaign.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I guess this thing is trending a little northeast? Or is it too early to tell if it is just model wobbles. Those are some really impressive totals in the Quad Cities area down towards Champaign.

I'd rather be on the northern end of the snow maps than on the southern end.  If this system is as strong as progged, then I'd say there is room for a tick north.  This system has that feel of a juiced up Alberta-like clipper in late March!

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Nice wording from LOT:

 

 

 

Guidance also signaling the potential for strong mesoscale forcing
as a sloped region of strong F-gen overspreads portions of the CWA
topped by a region of negative EPV and steep mid/upper level
lapse rates which will allow for a deep vertical response to the
forcing. The combination of strong forcing and instability will
set the stage for heavy snowfall rates, which will likely be in
the form of large aggregates at times as soundings show a deep
region of saturation cutting across a broad temperature range.
 
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