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Guest happ

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.26" fell here in Orange from this last storm. It would have been nice if it moved through more slowly in order for rainfall to accumulate more. It is looking hot for next week, but the forecast pattern looks anything but springlike. Rather, it appears to be a pattern more reminiscent of October with Santa Ana winds for a couple of days. If these Santa Anas do materialize, then I believe that we will have one more shot at rain before the end of the season, because the rainy season doesn't usually conclude with this type of weather pattern.

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Some rain along the North Coast [one RAWS recorded 0.62]; cool and windy just about everywhere else.

 

Squaw Valley: missing

Death Valley: 86 / 58

 

H: 70

L: 52

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Looks like the temperatures will be the only thing of note this week.  Today was still fairly mild. 

 

Squaw Valley: missing data

Death Valley: 90 / 61 [several other low desert stations were slightly warmer than Death Valley] 

 

H: 81

L: 55

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Hot across California today [mainly 80's-90's] but still under 100°.  That may change tomorrow.  Some minimums were above 70° this morning in metro Los Angeles.  Santa Ana winds = very high fire danger. 

 

Squaw Valley: missing data

Death Valley: 97 / 72

 

H: 95

L: 65

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Seems like there is not one D**n thing in favor for relieving the drought.

 

This Santa Ana wind event was one of the strongest, if not the strongest that I have ever witnessed here in Orange for this late in the season. In most years, the flow is solidly onshore with the beginning of the marine layer season which dominates in May and June. I have seen a few Santa Ana events this late in April and into early May over the years, so they are not entirely unheard of for this time of year, but they most commonly occur during the fall, winter, and early spring months.

 

I am hoping for El Nino to develop for next year so that we have the opportunity for significant drought relief across the state.

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Seems like there is not one D**n thing in favor for relieving the drought.

 

The rain season, historically, is over by this time of the year anyway.  So all we can hope for is a very active summer monsoon and weak santa ana winds in the autumn.  Like Dan points out, a strong El Nino could end the drought nicely this coming winter.

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I actually think we will see at least one more round of rain here in Socal before this season is over despite how late in the season it is. There have actually been storms from the north as late as the first week of June that have brought measurable rain to Socal, but that only occurs once in a while, such as June of 1999. The rainy season doesn't usually end with a Santa Ana wind event, especially one of this magnitude. The jet stream is still digging further south than average for this time of year, allowing cold air and the associated surface highs to traverse the Great Basin, and this current pattern is very much like early November. I am predicting that it will rain sometime either later next week or the week after that.

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I don't have the data in front of me at the moment but recall rain during May & June from north Pacific storms over the years.  I truly hope Dan is correct on rain for next week or anytime in May.  This morning a fire has broke out north of Rancho Cucamonga.  The wind is blowing so strong [up to 70mph] that the smoke is low and parallel to the ground. 

 

L: 69

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I smelled a little smoke at times here in Orange from that fire today. There aren't any other major fires that I am aware of in the region right now, fortunately, despite the strong wind, low humidity, high temperatures, and drier than normal fuels for this time of year due to the extreme dryness of this past winter.

 

The wind was even stronger this morning, knocking over more potted plants in both my front and back yards that aren't normally blown over in a run of the mill Santa Ana event. This wind event has been a real rarity in my opinion: a very strong multi-day Santa Ana event occurring during a time of the year when Santa Ana winds are not common in the first place.

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Guest happ

Windy, dusty and probably smoke over LA proper.  If we can get through tomorrow things should ease up a bit.  Warmest temps were very close to the beach. 90's up and down California but no 100° readings.  Cool high pressure over Nevada is similar to winter, not mid-Spring.  This is an event I hope we don't repeat again.

 

Squaw Valley: missing

Death Valley: 95 / 72

 

H: 95

L: 69

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-
... Main, and if only more "moderating" colder air mass, should begin to move and spread more southward again sometime Friday.
 
— This, if more meridionally with its at the same time steadily slower movement daily more eastward.
 
—http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/201-early-spring-2014-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=26152

---
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Guest happ

Very hot this afternoon it was. Tomorrow I expect peak warming... Mid-late 90's... Then cooling Friday.

 

I have family in Chico who report warmth for many weeks.

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Where is the windiest place in this kind of pattern? I see Chino, where I used to live, has gusted to 61 mph two days ago and 67 mph yesterday.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Guest happ

April Data

 

Aver Max: 77.7 [Norm: 76

Aver Min: 56.2 [Norm: 55

Aver Mean: 66.9 [Norm: 65

 

Hi Max: 95

Lo Max: 62

Hi Min: 69

Lo Min: 48

 

Rain: 0.43

Total: 6.19 [jul-jun]

Days: 3

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Guest happ

The heat is withering everyone but cool marine air is on the way. Temps right up to 99 were recorded in Orange and Ventura county but I couldn't find one 100 reading.

 

Thursday 5/1

 

Squaw Valley: missing

Death Valley: missing

 

H: 94

L: 68

 

This morning: 65

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-
 .. Just a quick note in passing here more "happ". But certainly useful, I feel leastwise, with also following what I post more generally, projection wise, regarding colder air mass both movement looked at with distribution with time.

Here it is.

— I've found that where and when main and more primary cold air ( .. "cooler" air, at the seasonal point and where looking even further into the main warmer seasons.) has begun to move and spread daily more south, .. [that] with this movement, main cold tends to "box" or "corral" warmer air by degrees, amassed to its south. Basically, working to jack up warmer air's over-all pressure, and so with this, cause it to warm more than it would minus this "corralling". True more notably and generally where looking at warmth in place through the greater SW mainly.- @
 
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur -.. Main, daily radiative build-up of heat, set against the idea of main "cooler" air's working to surround it on all sides but further south, where moving and spreading south. 
 
.. Sounds as though you've got the Pacific Ocean working more against, this idea to a decent extent at this point looked at more specifically.
 
Current at time of post.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/14050223_tcm_sfc_na-t40.png
14050223z tcm sfc na—Image source: "Unisys Weather"

---
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Guest happ

Thanks for the link, Richard

 

Today was actually the hottest day for many areas but winds are down.

 

Squaw Valley: missing data

Death Valley: 106 / 69

 

H: 96

L: 65

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Guest happ

Still hot but not as hot as yesterday except in the low desert.  Tomorrow will be a nice change for a while.  If the models verify we could be experiencing another heat wave next weekend.

 

Squaw Valley: missing data [i may need to find another 8000' station]

Death Valley: 112 / 79

 

H: 93

L: 65  

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Still hot but not as hot as yesterday except in the low desert.  Tomorrow will be a nice change for a while.  If the models verify we could be experiencing another heat wave next weekend.

 

Squaw Valley: missing data [i may need to find another 8000' station]

Death Valley: 112 / 79

 

H: 93

L: 65  

 

I hope we don't have another heat wave next weekend. I am really getting tired of this out of season heat!

 

EDIT: Tonight's San Diego AFD indicated that there are big differences among the models so confidence in next weekend's forecast is low at this time.

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Guest happ

I hope we don't have another heat wave next weekend. I am really getting tired of this out of season heat!

 

EDIT: Tonight's San Diego AFD indicated that there are big differences among the models so confidence in next weekend's forecast is low at this time.

 

Yes, it is interesting that both NWS_Monterey & San Diego mention even the possibility of light rain by Tuesday and perhaps later in the week.  It's much more comfortable today.

 

82

L: 61

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It was definitely cooler here in Orange County today and much more comfortable than it has been. There is now a 40% chance of some showers on Tuesday morning for the area, and the weather overall is looking much nicer and more typical for this time of year for this coming week. Next weekend is looking somewhat warmer than the week, but still much cooler than this past week as the flow remains onshore, but of course that could change as the models have been in disagreement lately.

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Guest happ

Respectable rainfall in North Coast foothills :   CAMP SIX RAWS 1.30

Doubt if California gets much moisture; Seattle has a lock on it.

 

Squaw Valley: missing

Death Valley: 107 / 83

 

84/ 61

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Do we have any other members from California other than Dan, Happ, and Richard?

 

There is Eujunga, and there are a couple of others that I know of who only post once in a while. There were a couple of others on the old forum, and whether they have joined here or not, I don't know. It would certainly be nice to see more CA members post on this forum, but the weather here has been so boring during the last couple of years that there hasn't been a whole lot to post about recently.

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Hello all,

 

I posted occasionally on the "old" forum and just haven't created an account yet. I do like having the new California subforum and enjoy Richards and others insights - and happ's daily updates!

 

I Live in Running Springs @ 6200' ASL - its near big bear lake in the San Bernardino Mountains. Like Dan I have NOT enjoyed this winter where we struggled to break 3 feet of snow when our average is ~12 feet.

 

Oddly enough NWS has us at 80% chance precip tonight/tomorrow with 2"-4" snow. I'll take it!

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Hello all,

 

I posted occasionally on the "old" forum and just haven't created an account yet. I do like having the new California subforum and enjoy Richards and others insights - and happ's daily updates!

 

I Live in Running Springs @ 6200' ASL - its near big bear lake in the San Bernardino Mountains. Like Dan I have NOT enjoyed this winter where we struggled to break 3 feet of snow when our average is ~12 feet.

 

Oddly enough NWS has us at 80% chance precip tonight/tomorrow with 2"-4" snow. I'll take it!

 

Welcome back to the forum!

 

I am hoping we see at least a little precip tomorrow as it will likely be one of our last chances of getting something before the end of this season.

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Guest happ

Alan, great to have someone living at your elevation on the forum; maybe next winter will produce a decent snow cover.

 

Upper trough moving southeastward through California w/ reasonable rainfall amounts [up to 0.80 in higher elevations] along the North Coast, as usual but even 0.36 recorded in Red Bluff [northern Sacramento Valley].  Could produce light showers even in SoCal overnight.  Much cooler airmass lowered temps 10+ degrees throughout the state.  Models still unclear about additional rainfall later in the week.  

 

Squaw Valley: missing data

Death Valley: 94 / 80

 

H: 74

L: 56

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32F and light rain this morning, so far.....doh!

 

Here's footage I took dec 2010 after 6 days nonstop rain, 42" total after all said and done - Arrowbear Lake flowing over the only road into my neighborhood at the time.

 

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PcqcdRvxNTs

 

More recently I took a short clip of Deep Creek flowing rapidly and well well over normal, in February I believe when SoCal had its only strong winter storm, I recorded 6" in less than 12hrs plus 2" snow or so. I'll try to eventually upload that as it's quite impressive especially for anyone familiar with the normal trickle that deep creek is.

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Guest happ

Not much rainfall but instability showers produced modest totals [mainly under 0.50] over the Sierra and other ranges; could see a little more tomorrow mainly in Central California.  Big cool-down continues across the state w/ frost advisories inland coastal valleys in Northern Cal tonight.  Looks like gradual warming into the weekend.

 

Squaw Valley: missing

Death Valley: 81 / 51

 

H: 70

L: 53

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There was a bit of drizzle here in Orange late last night, otherwise it was dry here. My region just can't seem to score in these type of situations when there are scattered showers versus an actual frontal band. I believe many of these storms in recent years have been taking a somewhat inside-slider track, and this area is being rainshadowed by the transverse ranges to the N and NW of here.

 

Today was cool for this time of year and is especially cool this evening with a current temperature of 60 degrees. What a difference a few days make when temperatures at this time of evening were in the upper 70's to low 80's! I'll take this weather over the intense heat of last week anytime during the spring.

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Guest happ

There was a bit of drizzle here in Orange late last night, otherwise it was dry here. My region just can't seem to score in these type of situations when there are scattered showers versus an actual frontal band. I believe many of these storms in recent years have been taking a somewhat inside-slider track, and this area is being rainshadowed by the transverse ranges to the N and NW of here.

 

Today was cool for this time of year and is especially cool this evening with a current temperature of 60 degrees. What a difference a few days make when temperatures at this time of evening were in the upper 70's to low 80's! I'll take this weather over the intense heat of last week anytime during the spring.

 

It is cool this evening; if the winds die down and it stays clear we could see some minimums locally below 50F.

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Guest happ

1" snow and hail - lightning and thunder was a pleasant surprise.

 

.45" rain lower down in crestline.

 

Dallas Raines commented on the convective activity in St Bernardino Mts several times.  But he also lamented that excessive heat is on the way minus wind.

 

More 40's in favored areas tonight.

 

S. Lake Tahoe [6314]: 56 / 29

Death Valley [-194] : 92 / 51

 

H: 69

L: 55

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It is looking like another Santa Ana (likely not as strong as last week) and very hot weather event shaping up for next week, about as un-springlike that it ever gets this time of year. Why is it that we just can't settle into a springlike pattern with marine layer cloudiness and 70's to near 80 for highs more like it should be this time of year? This temperature roller coaster ride as of late feels like October or November, not May!

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It does seem like an unusually vigorous jet stream pattern for May.

 

We can only hope that it doesn't get locked into the kind of persistent ridginess that characterized most of the winter.  That would make for a very uncomfortable summer indeed!

If El Nino continues to develop over the summer, we will probably have warmer than normal temperatures for at least part of the summer with higher humidity. The monsoon will probably be active and added moisture from Pacific tropical systems could make for more interesting conditions later on in the summer and very early fall. It just would be nice to stop having these 90+ temperature spikes and out of season Santa Ana events for the rest this spring and have a generally nice period of 70 and low 80 degree weather before the summer pattern sets in with the heat sometime in July.

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Guest happ

Agree that strong ridging this summer could spell disaster in regards to the fire season; there have been summers where all 3 months averaged 90 or above in my location.  El Nino summers are also hot but more humid and convective.  If the tropical east Pacific is active, we could have tropical waves, dying hurricanes/ tropical depressions move up into California from Mexico or even the Gulf of Mexico.

 

But generally May is a very comfortable month of near daily night and morning coastal clouds/ hazy afternoon, light winds and temps in the 70's to low 80's as Dan points out.  I find the stratus boring after a while but the coolness and mild nights make it very pleasant.    

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Guest happ

The second storm of the week [that some models last week were forecasting to reach SoCal] is moving into northern California.  Rainfall totals are modest but some stations in the North Coast [sonoma county northward] are showing over 0.50 in mountainous areas.  Still fairly cool across the Southwest [ie. Phoenix: 77°]. 

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 6314'] : 57 / 33

Death Valley: [-194']: 95 / 66

 

H: 73

L: 56

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