California Weather/ Climate

[richard mann]

- 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/IGCM-22452015015.jpg
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
Rejecting all of what I've either whether heard or seen represented as more substantive looking ahead out to 7 days, I'm seeing some decent potential where looking at the idea of the more substantial cold currently out over the Central Pacific, and with its being caused to move fairly quickly east working by degrees to close off main moisture's current more wide-opened path north, more toward channelling main moisture more directly Eastward, [hopefully] resulting in some amount of more decent precip.. from 40-2° N South. 
 
— Wishful thinking. ? Tough to tell.  But may as well think more positively.

[Dan the Weatherman]

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http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/IGCM-22452015015.jpg

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

 

Rejecting all of what I've either whether heard or seen represented as more substantive looking ahead out to 7 days, I'm seeing some decent potential where looking at the idea of the more substantial cold currently out over the Central Pacific, and with its being caused to move fairly quickly east working by degrees to close off main moisture's current more wide-opened path north, more toward channelling main moisture more directly Eastward, [hopefully] resulting in some amount of more decent precip.. from 40-2° N South. 

 

— Wishful thinking. ? Tough to tell.  But may as well think more positively.

I hope you end up being right on this because we really need the precipitation in CA in general.

[richard mann]

I hope you end up being right on this because we really need the precipitation in Norcal.

Oh I'd meant more fully south even. Central perhaps leastwise anyway.

 

— What I'm mainly looking at is cold's current pickup in (increasingly greater) force of movement more generally (both more latitudinally and longitudinally), along with its also at the same time currently more stepped up movement east. 

 

Best case scenario, like I've said. But ....

 

.. I don't think the models have clewed in to either of these ideas.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Oh I'd meant more fully south even. Central perhaps leastwise anyway.

 

— What I'm mainly looking at is cold's current pickup in (increasingly greater) force of movement more generally (both more latitudinally and longitudinally), along with its also at the same time currently more stepped up movement east. 

 

Best case scenario, like I've said. But ....

 

.. I don't think the models have clewed in to either of these ideas.

Maybe the central and southern Sierra could get some good snow if this verifies.

[Guest happ]

Steve Johnson posted this several days ago:

 

Forecast Trajectory path of Tropical Cyclone “Mekkahla”  moving westward toward the Philippines at 14kts with wave height to 12ft.  Forecast charts show the storm becoming a TROPICAL STORM status this afternoon, with intensifying sustained winds up to 45mph on Saturday, with gusts reaching up to 60mph as it reaches the coastline of the Philippines.  There is less chance that this storm could become a Typhoon CAT1 storm before landfall.

Despite continued skepticism, for the twelfth consecutive day the GSF has continued to depict a Tropical Cyclone developing in the Northern Hemisphere during the next several days, which would be a highly unusual event for this time of year.  “Tropical Cyclone “Mekkhala”, has officially been named as its evolution of what the GFS forecast charts suggested 12 days ago is verifying nicely.  Today’s 12Z GFS unfortunately does NOT implicate this system to impact CA or the West Coast.

 

• There have only been 25 January Tropical Storms and/or Typhoons in the PAC basin since 1959. 
• The last January unnamed subtropical Depression occurred Jan 18^th 2010   
• The last January Tropical Storm occurred on Jan 12^th 2008
• The last January Typhoon occurred on Jan 13^th 2005

 

This will be very interesting to monitor!   The GFS forecast models today continue to show development of the Tropical Cyclone “Mekkhala” for the next several days.  This storm intensifies and may become a Tropical Storm by Tue afternoon.  The latest forecast charts indicate the storm will not attain Typhoon status as it approaches the Philippine coast by Sat, Jan 17^th,  with the outer bands of the storm reaching the coast.  As the storm approaches the Philippine shoreline on the 17^th it slows down to a crawl and turns north.  On Sat, Jan 17^th,  as the storm crawls northward along the coastline it produces heavy rains and high winds.  According to today’s GFS, the storm is responsible for producing several injections of high PWAT moisture into the westerly zonal flow pattern crossing the PAC basin.  The first injection occurs in about 24hrs, as a Low Pressure storm departs Japan heading east with an Atmospheric River (AR) attachment to the Tropical Cyclone.  As this storm moves east to the Dateline, a second Low Pressure system follows the same path and also attaches to the AR attached to the Tropical Cyclone.  By Sat, Jan 17^th there are two mid latitude storms in the WPAC which are both linked back to the Tropical Cyclone moisture field sourcing.   As the two system travel across the PAC basin, by Mon, Jan 19^th the second system becomes dominant as the first weakens.  On Tue, Jan 20^th the bulk of the remnant Tropical Cyclone merges with a developing storm system that is winding up over the Korea’s.  Overnight Mon, Jan 19^th the leading edge of the first moisture surge reaches a large expanse of the coast from near Anchorage, Alaska southward to near Vancouver, BC with heavy warm rains initiating.  These heavy rains continue 4+ days virtually non-stop, thru  Sat, Jan 24^th as the tail-end of the storm moves onshore with WA State being brushed by the tail-end of the AR  Thu, Jan 22^nd and again on Fri night, Jan 23^rd  with a real soaking!   Back at the source, the storm dissipates on Tue, Jan 20^th with the bulk of the moisture field being absorbed by a strong storm system developing over Korea at 156hrs.  This super wet storm drenches Japan on Wed, Jan 21^st.  As this system stalls near the tip of the Aleutians on the 25^th, a big slug of its moisture is torn off by the strong zonal westerly flow at 40N.  This moisture field carries the bulk of the remnant moisture field from the original Tropical Cyclone and the leading edge crosses 160W on Sun, Jan 25^th.  Because High Pressure over the WCONUS blocks the approach, it is forced NE into southern Alaska and the panhandle region on Tue, Jan 27^th and finally diminishing overnight on Thu, Jan 29^th.  So according to today’s GFS, ends the saga of Tropical Cyclone “Mekkhala”, which began on a Fantasyland GFS forecast chart on Jan 2^nd, and appears to end on Thu, Jan 29^th.  That’s nearly a month of discussion about 1 RARE storm!  Kudos to the GFS forecast model for sticking its neck out on one of the most accurate Fantasyland forecasts ever made.

 

Unfortunately as much as we’d like to see some of this rare event reach into CA, according to today’s charts none of the moisture makes it close to CA and instead is dumped where it is not needed…into southern Alaska and BC, Canada…again!  The biggest change in charts today regards the several long expanses of moisture (AR) as the Tropical Cyclone ramps up the moisture supply into the WPAC for a long time period.  We will continue to keep an eye on this interesting rare feature to see how the GFS evolves over the next 16Days.   In summary, the moisture reaching into the coast of North America beginning on Mon, Jan 19^th thru Thu, Jan 29^th (11 days!) is somehow related to this Tropical Cyclone.  This is a great example of how Atmospheric Rivers play an important role in distributing the wealth of moisture across the globe. 

[Guest happ]

ditto

 

78 / 53

[Dan the Weatherman]

Agree.  I don't like hot temps during winter but because the days are short, the evenings cool down rapidly.  I was thinking about how the seasons seem to play out.  We depend on winter being wet at least every few weeks and cold enough for ample snowpack in the Sierra.  But winter also means wearing sandals [with socks] and flip-flops, eating outdoors, open windows even going swimming [in heated pools].  This is what many people want and why they live in southern California.  It is hard to stay angry with the weather when so many days are nearly perfect for the outdoors.

What I am really concerned about more than anything at this point is the possibility of very severe water restrictions later this year if we don't get some decent rainfall soon. If we were in better shape as far as our water supply is concerned, I wouldn't mind the dry spells as much. It is just that our situation is the most dire that I have ever seen perhaps during my lifetime and this drought has me worried even more than the drought of the late 80's and early 90's. The weather pattern is behaving more strangely as of late and I think there is something very abnormal going on that is causing this repeated mid-winter dryness that has been going on since 2012 and I am going to do a longer than normal post here soon (likely on a separate thread) on what I think may be contributing to this pattern.

[Guest happ]

A dry January is certainly not out of the ordinary but that doesn't mean the rest of winter will follow suit.  And we did get a surprisingly good rainfall last weekend.  SST remain above normal as they have for months and months.

 

80 / 55

[Guest happ]

And life goes on . . .

 

76 /54

[halofromajo]

Pattern changes looks to finally be coming with a cut off low.

[Guest happ]

Article in today's L.A. Times about "atmospheric rivers":

 

http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-atmospheric-rivers-20150119-story.html

 

The meteorology behind the article seemed a bit fuzzy to me, as did the implication that we're somehow, hmm... entitled?... to an atmospheric river event later this winter.

 

Meanwhile, yet more ridging, dry weather, and temperatures well above normal appear to be on tap for the next week at least.

A bit provocative

 

If atmospheric rivers fail to arrive, California could be in serious trouble. That's what happened last winter, when a ridge of high pressure lingered off the West Coast for months, blocking storms and intensifying the drought.

 

An atmospheric river broke through last February but didn't bring enough rain to make a big improvement. In December, a strong atmospheric river drenched Northern California, but much of it fell as rain near the coast rather than snow in the mountains. That means the state will need several more big storms by the end of next month to build up its snowpack, which in the Sierra Nevada remains at less than half of normal.

 

As much as Californians might hope for a series of atmospheric rivers to sweep in and end the three-year drought, experts warn that so much rain at once could bring devastation.

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

What we really need right now is a series of Gulf of Alaska storms with lower snow levels that bring moderate amounts of rainfall, but copious snows to the Sierras. A series of warm AR events would bring a lot of rain, the possibility of widespread flooding and not enough snow to the mountains.

[halofromajo]

What we really need right now is a series of Gulf of Alaska storms with lower snow levels that bring moderate amounts of rainfall, but copious snows to the Sierras. A series of warm AR events would bring a lot of rain, the possibility of widespread flooding and not enough snow to the mountains.

The Weather Magic 8 Ball ™ is saying "My reply is no."

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/790-the-why-of-where-we-are/

[johnstr8]

California, recently they were hit pretty hard with rain a few months ago. But man do they need it. I think that there is some more forecast in the next few days. 

[Guest happ]

Shield of altocumulus and morning stratus kept it cool today.

 

63 /53

[johnstr8]

I still worry about calfornia this year as well. The west is supposed  to have a much warmer spring than average this year as well. 

[snow_wizard]

I still worry about calfornia this year as well. The west is supposed  to have a much warmer spring than average this year as well.

I wouldn't doubt it. This really has turned into a nightmare for cold weather fans.

[Dan the Weatherman]

What I am really concerned about more than anything at this point is the possibility of very severe water restrictions later this year if we don't get some decent rainfall soon. If we were in better shape as far as our water supply is concerned, I wouldn't mind the dry spells as much. It is just that our situation is the most dire that I have ever seen perhaps during my lifetime and this drought has me worried even more than the drought of the late 80's and early 90's. The weather pattern is behaving more strangely as of late and I think there is something very abnormal going on that is causing this repeated mid-winter dryness that has been going on since 2012 and I am going to do a longer than normal post here soon (likely on a separate thread) on what I think may be contributing to this pattern.

I have posted the article on what I think may be contributing to the persistent ridging and drought pattern as of late in the Long Range / Climate Discussion thread and is titled:  Is China's pollution altering California's climate?

 

[johnstr8]

Correct me if im wrong, but i think this drought in california is from small High pressure systems keeping all the rain north of western nevada and a lot of california.

[Guest happ]

Waiting for rain that might occur early next week.

 

71/ 55

[Guest happ]

I've been watching that on the models too.  Unfortunately, it doesn't look to do much for the snowpack.

 

The scenario is similar to an upper low off Baja that moved north into California around 1/10.  It was hot for several days and then steady rainfall for over 36 hours dropped over an inch.  Freeze level above 8000'. 

[Guest happ]

YORBA LINDA  :  77 /  62 [minimums reflect wind which is beginning to pick up .

MALIBU : 75 / 64

75/ 57 [mostly cloudy today]

 

Cut off low weatherman's woe!

[Dan the Weatherman]

Yes!  When is the last time we had a "typical" winter storm?  By which I mean a low from the Gulf of Alaska moving down the coast, turning inland in California, and dragging a cold front which drops maybe an inch of rain in the lowlands with snow levels starting out at maybe 7,000 ft. but lowering over the course of the storm to around 4,000 ft.?

 

Seems to me that in the old days, our winters were characterized by many such storms, but I can't recall the last time we had one that was even roughly similar.  March 2012, maybe?

I think March 2012 was the last time this has happened, or possibly November or December 2012 before the rains abruptly ended at the beginning of January. The Gulf of Alaska storm track has been completely shut down by this ultra-persistent high amplitude ridging pattern since at least January 2013. The persistence of this pattern is one of the reasons I believe that something unnatural could be causing it to bounce back to the extent that it has. If you are interested, you can read my article in the Climate Discussion thread regarding the possibility that the recent intense industrial pollution in China may be altering our weather patterns as of late.

 

I really want to see a return to a more classic winter pattern ASAP. It is going to drive me crazy if we have this perpetual drought pattern year after year with no end to it.

 

[Guest happ]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/animate.php?root=sat_4km&list=VIS4.GIF.3.jpg,VIS4.GIF.4.jpg,VIS4.GIF.5.jpg,VIS4.GIF.6.jpg,VIS4.GIF.7.jpg,VIS4.GIF.8.jpg

 

Satellite shows slug of tule fog in the Central Valley

[Guest happ]

Potential for rainfall looks pretty slim into next week.  Very windy today and warm.

 

82 / 62

[Dan the Weatherman]

Potential for rainfall looks pretty slim into next week.  Very windy today and warm.

 

82 / 62

I wouldn't exactly say slim, as the chance of rain is 50% for Orange County on Monday night, but totals probably won't be too high due to all the dry air from this strong Santa Ana event. We desperately need a change in the pattern to bring some big storms to the entire state.

[Dan the Weatherman]

The Santa Ana winds came up last night after sundown and really got strong in the early morning hours, almost definitely meeting High Wind Warning criteria, so the warning most likely verified. The winds were blowing so hard that they woke me up a few times early this morning. The power went out here around 9:30 this morning for a minute or two. The wind did die down as the afternoon wore on and almost became calm in the evening. They have since increased during the last 15-30 minutes. This is the second strong Santa Ana event that my area has experienced this season, with the first one with the storm that brought low elevation snow to Temecula and surrounding areas in late December.

[Guest happ]

I wouldn't exactly say slim, as the chance of rain is 50% for Orange County on Monday night, but totals probably won't be too high due to all the dry air from this strong Santa Ana event. We desperately need a change in the pattern to bring some big storms to the entire state.

 

I get shy about forecasting rain but it would be great to pick up another inch.

[AlTahoe]

66F in South Lake Tahoe today. The old Janaury record used to be 61F until we broke it last year with a 64F. This year 66F. We bumped the monthly record up 5 degress in two years. Incredible

[richard mann]

(.. Phenology. Also duplicated in "Pacific Northwest", an ill-titled thread, in "Sciences", main "Farming, Gardening, and Agriculture" subforum.)
 

My crabapple tree is blooming already after a dormant period of about a week and a half. .. 

.. Close to "New Moon" synonymous to Lunar "Perigee". And with their not needing much of a more "dormant" period.

[Guest happ]

66F in South Lake Tahoe today. The old Janaury record used to be 61F until we broke it last year with a 64F. This year 66F. We bumped the monthly record up 5 degress in two years. Incredible

 

I noticed in some locations that previous record warmth occurred last January only to be broken again this month.  But Jan 2014 was much warmer overall that this January has been.  Looking forward to the prospects of rain this week.

 

83/ 61

[Dan the Weatherman]

I noticed in some locations that previous record warmth occurred last January only to be broken again this month.  But Jan 2014 was much warmer overall that this January has been.  Looking forward to the prospects of rain this week.

 

83/ 61

I am amazed that we have had two Januaries in a row with record breaking high temperatures in some of the same places both times, such as Tahoe. It has been cooler in Socal as a whole this month than it was last January, and wetter as well, thanks to the storm we had earlier in the month. Hopefully we get some measurable rainfall from this little storm tomorrow.

If we have a third consecutive drier than average January next year with record highs in the same or similar places as the previous two, then I will really be thinking that something abnormal is going on in the weather patterns as of late.

[richard mann]

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.. posted to the PNW general thread, certainly relevant here too. ENSO related.
  
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/755-january-2015-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=65780

[Guest happ]

 

-

.. posted to the PNW general thread, certainly relevant here too. ENSO related.

  

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/755-january-2015-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=65780

 

 

Very depressing at the equator; I noticed warm SST along both West and East coasts, yet Gulf of California is very cool.

 

Rain is actually being reported in isolated regions [Oceanside, Blythe] at 1pm. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

There hasn't been any rain here in Orange yet, but the sky is getting darker now than it was earlier today.

[Alan]

.25" after a burst of heavy rain, light rain now...

[Dan the Weatherman]

It has been raining here in Orange since about 4 p.m. or just before. It was coming down more heavily in the last few minutes than it was earlier. It really has cooled down here since early this afternoon when it was 76 degrees, and now it is in the upper 50's.

[richard mann]

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http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-0900.jpg
 
.. Definitely good to hear. Hopefully some of this will scoot up this way a bit more. 
 
... Definitely looking good, for things more broad.
 
— With the current slow-down of main and broader cold east, this stuff more systemic has just worked to fill in the general gap and void. .. More or less "retrograde". .. the main theme, pattern wise here in the West north and south this year. .Main idea broader scope, it's obliterated the ridge that had been in place.

 
.. The main brunt and wealth of this moisture and system had been sitting more south over the whole of Mexico of course, just 24 hours ago. Things more over-all colder air wise, and so the main low with them, retracting more northward at this point, also.  http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-1200.jpg

 !! .. The source for the images tacked in here above being more direct, I'll upload their more static versions and tack them in here also, toward the idea of a better representation here. ... Here's the 12z for the 26th, yesterday. - 150126 12z Goes10-IR.jpg

And then here's the initial 0900z nearest 3-hourly available at the time of my post here. - 150127 09z Goes10-IR.jpg

[Guest happ]

It has been raining here in Orange since about 4 p.m. or just before. It was coming down more heavily in the last few minutes than it was earlier. It really has cooled down here since early this afternoon when it was 76 degrees, and now it is in the upper 50's.

 

Picked up 0.13 from light showers yesterday afternoon/ overnight.  Just shy of 7 inches for the rain year.