California Weather/ Climate

[Utrex]

Looking likely for a thunderstorm outbreak this evening - Friday morning over coastal, valley, and mountain regions over Central California and the bottom half of Northern California... The lowest parts of the valley are likely not going to produce significant fire threats, though the valley sides and mountains could receive some intense fires tonight. On August 2014, a similar setup occured with moisture depicted to turn into widespread elevated dry thunderstorms, however the moisture was nowhere near as much as the models depicted, thus no thunderstorms developed.

 

Between now and tonight, anything could happen. Let's hope more moisture doesn't get advected, since that would only spawn more convection.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Light showers continued off and on for a good part of this afternoon here in Orange, but amounts only totaled a trace. There were some huge drops, though.

[Guest happ]

Now the day temps are suppressed by onshore flow.  Troughs are always good news for California.  And near perfect comfort levels.

 

Yesterday's hi: 87

 

L: 68

[Guest happ]

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-couple-struck-by-lightning-20150807-story.html

 

Young couple struck by lightning -- and hand-holding may have saved their lives

 

         

There was electricity in the air, millions of volts actually, when teens Dylan and Lexie walked through a Claremont neighborhood Thursday afternoon.

 

As the young couple strode the tree-lined streets in the Inland Empire community, a bolt of lightning shot from the sky and hit Dylan, passed through him to his girlfriend, Lexie, and into the ground, according to the couple’s interview with KCBS-TV.

 

Both came out of the incident with no apparent injuries. The station did not identify either juvenile by their last names.

“It was more of just kind of a shove, you know? Felt like I was getting hit over the head with metal or something,” Dylan told the station.

“Next thing you know we’re on the ground and we gave each other the most terrified look you could possibly imagine,” she told KCBS.

The two thought it could have been an earthquake.

 

But Dr. Stefan Reynoso, who examined the couple afterward, said their hand-holding may have also saved them from being hurt or killed.

“It helped to diffuse the electrical current that ran through their bodies,” Reynoso told the station.

 

The lightning strike was just one of hundreds across California on Thursday, as thunderstorms rolled through Southern California’s deserts, Central California and the Bay Area.

 

There were more than 500 lightning strikes in Central and Northern California alone, the National Weather Service said.

[Guest happ]

Recorded 62 degree minimum; coolest morning since July 12  [61°].  Lower heights & marine influence coupled with a clear night factor in.  Often the marine layer enters the San Gabriel valley around its lowest point, South El Monte [ele: 249'] and reach Pasadena at sunrise for a brief period or not at all, especially in August. 

 

Update : weak stratus overhead an hour later

[Guest happ]

Looks like our first "real" = 100° heatwave of the summer starts soon unless the monsoon recues southern California.  Not good news for the fires in northern California. 

 

L: 63 [these cool mornings have been delightful

[Dan the Weatherman]

Looks like our first "real" = 100° heatwave of the summer starts soon unless the monsoon recues southern California.  Not good news for the fires in northern California. 

 

L: 63 [these cool mornings have been delightful

 

The weather has been almost springlike the last few days; however it is much warmer today and is a sign of things to come for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

 

I really am hoping for more exciting weather later this summer with enhanced monsoon activity and possible tropical storm remnants like we had earlier this summer. The monsoonal moisture for this week sounds like low-grade run of the mill activity confined to the mountains and deserts.

[Alan]

Warmest day of the year here, it tapped 82 for a couple minutes before dropping back to 81.  Lots of cumulus buildup on the ridges and into the desert slopes in a very typical summer monsoon fashion which leaves my location high and dry but close enough to often be tricked to think it just might rain by distant thunder and towering cumulus that seem so close...

[Guest happ]

Warmest day of the year here, it tapped 82 for a couple minutes before dropping back to 81.  Lots of cumulus buildup on the ridges and into the desert slopes in a very typical summer monsoon fashion which leaves my location high and dry but close enough to often be tricked to think it just might rain by distant thunder and towering cumulus that seem so close...

 

Hottest day of the year here also though a bit warmer than your alpine elevation.  I also noticed the cumulus today but little vertical profile.  Dew points are dropping so it could be worse.

 

98 / 71

[Guest happ]

Hot but not too extreme [valleys: 100-106].  A few wild fires in metro region [simi Valley, Glendora] but low wind; probably smoky tomorrow.

 

98 / 72

[Dan the Weatherman]

It was the hottest day of the summer so far here in Orange with highs in the upper 90's.

[Guest happ]

Saturday reached 101.7 but I don't think it will be much worse today w/ a gradual cool down into the week.  Night temps have been uncomfortable w/ readings staying above 80° in some foothill areas [Malibu Hills/ Topanga].

 

101/ 75

 

Currently: 77° so minimum may be a little cooler this morning. 

[Guest happ]

SOUTHERN DESERT INCLUDING THE COACHELLA VALLEY
  

10AM
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PALM SPRINGS   SUNNY     97  69  40 CALM      29.87S HX 103          
THOUSAND PALMS   N/A     97  72  44 SE2       29.82S HX 105          
PALM DESERT      N/A    101  70  37 E5          N/A  HX 108          
THERMAL        SUNNY     97  74  47 VRB5      29.79S HX 108          
BLYTHE         SUNNY     98  73  44 VRB6      29.83S HX 108          
IMPERIAL AP    SUNNY    100  75  44 E8        29.78S HX 113          
EL CENTRO NAS  SUNNY    100  73  41 E6        29.80S HX 110          
YUMA AZ        SUNNY    102  72  37 S14       29.81S HX 112          
MEXICALI       SUNNY     97  73  46 E8        29.81  HX 107          
 

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=82922

[Guest happ]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=82922

 

Speaking of "cooler air" ; the trade off of cooler maximums but warmer minimums for Sierra foothills versus the Sacramento Valley.  The heat lately has been tedious. 

 

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS...

REDDING AP                502 :    107 /  65 /  0.00 /

RED BLUFF AP              349 :    105 /  67 /  0.00 /

OROVILLE AP               192 :    102 /  69 /  0.00 /

PARADISE                 1750 :     96 /  75 /  0.00 /

MARYSVILLE AP              62 :    103 /  64 /  0.00 /

ALDER SPRINGS            4500 :     93 /  73 /  0.00 /

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Much cooler here in Orange today with highs only in the mid-upper 80's, after two days of baking at or just over 100. The marine layer has returned in full force tonight with the increase in onshore flow.

[Guest happ]

Considering the heat we just experienced the fires could have been much worse, at least in SoCal.  I'd like to think that higher water soil content and dewpoints help but after viewing the fires in Chelan WA I realized that we dodged another bullet.  Quick transition to strong marine airmass will likely mean cooler than normal for a while and lower fire conditions.

 

Monday: 89 / 69

 

L: 69

[richard mann]

(.. cross-referene.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=83150  @

[Guest happ]

It is very fortuitous that even upper level high pressure is repeatedly undermined by troughs this summer.  The results have been wonderful periods of below normal temps.  Yet co-workers argue that this has been a hot summer.  Data does reveal warmer nights likely due to water temps [basically low & mid 70's] for over a month.  Humidity has been the factor this summer; even 80 ° feels a little uncomfortable w/ dew points in the 60's.

 

Thursday

85/ 67

 

L: 67  

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/889-summer-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=83402

[Guest happ]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/889-summer-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=83402

 

Mid August into September can be the hottest part of summer.  I hope we pick up some monsoonal showers this week.

 

Sunday: 90 / 65

L: 68

[Guest happ]

Nice cloud formation/ virga this morning.  Hopefully some thunderstorms later in the day.

 

L: 72

[Guest happ]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
104 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING
ALOFT EXPECTED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER. RESIDUAL MOISTURE...AND
MIDDAY HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS LIKELY TO DRIVE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK STEERING FLOW WITH A DRIFT OFF INTO
THE DESERTS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DESERT SLOPES.

SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-

104 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
  CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CALIFORNIA...
  SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING. IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...
  APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE
  COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
  COUNTY DESERTS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

* FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE DESERT SLOPES LATER IN
  THE DAY

* AREAS IN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED AREAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAVY RUNOFF AND DEBRIS FLOWS IF STRONG
  THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

* HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF
  THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
  YOUR AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

 

[Guest happ]

Lots of clouds today but very little rain [mostly San Diego area].

 

ENCINITAS          270 :   76 /  67 /  0.01 /
SOLANA BEACH        75 :   75 /  67 /  0.01 /
DEL MAR            100 :   73 /  69 /  0.05 /
MIRAMAR            477 :   82 /  69 /    T  /
MONTGOMERY FIELD   420 :   80 /  70 /  0.01 /
SAN DIEGO           15 :   77 /  71 /  0.01 /
CABRILLO NATL MNMT 364 :   75 /  67 /     M /
NATIONAL CITY       25 :   76 /  71 /  0.04 /
CHULA VISTA         56 :   78 /  70 /  0.00 /
IMPERIAL BEACH      23 :   74 /  69 /  0.01 /
BROWN FIELD        525 :   87 /  68 /    T  /

LA MESA            500 :   78 /  68 /  0.09 /

 

70° dew point temps locally this afternoon.
 

87 / 72

 

[Guest happ]

Meager cumulonimbus build up in local mountains today though quite humid.  Drier SW flow into next week should make things quite comfortable after this heat wave. 

 

95 / 74

[Guest happ]

Hot and hazy day

 

97 / 72

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=83762

[Dan the Weatherman]

Hot and hazy day

 

97 / 72

It was quite hot here in Orange today as well with highs in the upper 90's.

[Guest happ]

Nice cool down on the way; next week looks very pleasant.

 

101 / 75

[Dan the Weatherman]

August has been much more inactive as far as monsoon activity goes than I thought it would have been. With the developing El Nino, I would have expected quite a bit more action. Maybe September will deliver with some tropical storm remnants. I guess with the hyperactive July we had with Dolores along with a few other thunderstorm outbreaks, August made up for what early to mid July usually brings in terms of quieter weather.

[Guest happ]

August has been much more inactive as far as monsoon activity goes than I thought it would have been. With the developing El Nino, I would have expected quite a bit more action. Maybe September will deliver with some tropical storm remnants. I guess with the hyperactive July we had with Dolores along with a few other thunderstorm outbreaks, August made up for what early to mid July usually brings in terms of quieter weather.

 

My hunch is that the monsoon this summer has been slightly more active than normal in California though the 2014 monsoon produced more rainfall in Arizona by this time.  There was talk that this summer would be a "monsoon on steroids" due to El Nino but it hasn't been so far; September can be stormy, so who knows.  I've read that August has produced record warmth in Hawaii and Arizona and tropical conditions are currently quite active in the eastern Pacific.  

 

97 / 73

[Guest happ]

70° dewpoints reflect warm sea temps:  

 

TORRANCE       MOSUNNY   82  70  65

HUNTINGTON BCH   N/A     80  72  75

LAGUNA BEACH     N/A     81  73  76

OCEANSIDE HBR    N/A     74  71  91
VISTA            N/A     83  69  63                  
CARLSBAD       SUNNY     78  69  73                  
DEL MAR          N/A     77  71  80

CHULA VISTA      N/A     80  71  75

 

Ocean temps:
TANNER BANKS     70 
S CLEMENTE BASIN  72  
S. BARBARA CH          70 
S. MONICA BASIN       74  
S PEDRO CHANNEL     73    
DANA POINT                  75        
OCEANSIDE OFFSHR   76      
TORREY PINES OTR    76     

MISSION BAY BUOY     77        
POINT LOMA SOUTH    74     

[Guest happ]

August 2015 Data

 

Aver Max: 90.3 [Norm: 89° 

Aver Min: 68.8 [Norm: 66°

Mean: 79.5 [Norm: 77°

 

Highest Max: 101

Lowest Max: 83

 

Highest Min: 75

Lowest Min: 62

 

Rain: 0.00

Year [jul-jun]: 0.59

[Dan the Weatherman]

From San Diego AFD:

 

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOCAL
WILL HOLD TROUGH THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. THE MODELS
INDICATE LITTLE LONGWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...WITH
THE MASSIVE EASTPAC RIDGE ALONG 160W...AND THE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL
N.A. HOLDING. THESE ARE NO DOUBT HELPING TO ANCHOR THE WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHICH DEFLECTS ANY MONSOONAL FLOW FARTHER TO
THE EAST OF SOCAL...AND MAINTAINS ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. 

 

This sounds much more like a La Nina summer pattern rather than one found during El Nino with the ridging over the Central U.S. keeping the monsoon moisture at bay.

 

I will admit that if this were winter, we would likely be getting some good rains in this type of setup with the ridging at 160W and over the Central U.S. with a nice trough over the West Coast. Let's hope this pattern shows itself during the winter months, January-March!

[Guest happ]

From San Diego AFD:

 

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOCAL

WILL HOLD TROUGH THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. THE MODELS

INDICATE LITTLE LONGWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...WITH

THE MASSIVE EASTPAC RIDGE ALONG 160W...AND THE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL

N.A. HOLDING. THESE ARE NO DOUBT HELPING TO ANCHOR THE WEAK TROUGH

ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHICH DEFLECTS ANY MONSOONAL FLOW FARTHER TO

THE EAST OF SOCAL...AND MAINTAINS ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. 

 

This sounds much more like a La Nina summer pattern rather than one found during El Nino with the ridging over the Central U.S. keeping the monsoon moisture at bay.

 

I will admit that if this were winter, we would likely be getting some good rains in this type of setup with the ridging at 160W and over the Central U.S. with a nice trough over the West Coast. Let's hope this pattern shows itself during the winter months, January-March!

 

It has been a mixed bag, so to speak, this summer.  During La Nina summers troughs knock temps down a bit but drive the monsoon south of California.  Last night Phoenix had some monster storms so the tropics are still very influential.  I, too, am excited by the prospects of a full-on El Nino winter.

 

L: 70

[Guest happ]

NWS-SD

.BEACHES... 
  900 AM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS FROM HURRICANE JIMENA WILL PRODUCE 
  ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO SO-CAL BEACHES TODAY AND 
  WEDNESDAY...EASING A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHEST SURF OF 3-4 
  FEET WILL BE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SETS TO 6 FT ON SOUTHWEST 
  FACING BEACHES. 
  
  A FRESH SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E HAS THE 
  POTENTIAL TO BRING EVEN HIGHER SURF TO SO-CAL BEACHES OVER THE 
  WEEKEND. 
 

[Guest happ]

MOS guidance shows maximums in the 70's on Friday from beach to inland empire [san Bernardino].

 

L: 69  

[Alan]

Forecast temps have been underperforming here this week especially overnight temps in the low 50's vs forecasted upper 50's. By Friday it's showing 62/49 and I wouldn't be surprised to see low 40's and daytime not cracking 60.....it's that time of year we can & typically do get our first freeze by the latter half of the month.

 

MOS guidance shows maximums in the 70's on Friday from beach to inland empire [san Bernardino].

 

L: 69

[Guest happ]

Forecast temps have been underperforming here this week especially overnight temps in the low 50's vs forecasted upper 50's. By Friday it's showing 62/49 and I wouldn't be surprised to see low 40's and daytime not cracking 60.....it's that time of year we can & typically do get our first freeze by the latter half of the month.

 

That sounds so refreshing and encouraging!

 

I think the models struggle factoring in SST in the lower elevations; missing accuracy by several degrees.  Minimums have always been warmer than predicted.  Dewpoints are lowering nicely for better sleeping weather.  

 

82 / 69

[Dan the Weatherman]

The last two days have certainly felt like fall and that pattern is forecast to continue for much of this week, but I don't think we are quite done with summer just yet. I have a feeling we are going to see at least one or two more heatwaves, possibly along with some tropical moisture later this month.