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I am hoping for a storm that lasts for more than 5 minutes, and drops more than .05" in my backyard. The Monday night-Wednesday storm looks as if it will be more significant, possibly bringing .2" to .5" in coastal areas of Orange County. It has been like pulling teeth to get rain down here this year it seems. It's time for our weather to stop acting like we are in the Atacama Desert!

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I still think monsoon prospects should be above normal this year, so hopefully it can produce for you guys.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I still think monsoon prospects should be above normal this year, so hopefully it can produce for you guys.

 

I agree with you on that, especially if significant El Nino conditions develop by summer. In that case, the monsoon may very well be enhanced with the remnant moisture from more frequent tropical systems from the eastern Pacific.

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I will be watching for an early development of the 4-Corners high too as that seems to have a fairly significant correlation with the strength of the monsoon.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I will be watching for an early development of the 4-Corners high too as that seems to have a fairly significant correlation with the strength of the monsoon.

 

The Four Corners high provides the main steering current of the disturbances and the moisture associated with the monsoon and its placement is key in who gets activity and who does not. If there is deep troughing in the Pacific NW during the summer, the high is suppressed south and east of its usual position and there is a more southwesterly flow aloft especially over CA, NV, and AZ, leading to much less activity. If there is more ridging in the West, then the Four Corners high is in a more favorable position for thunderstorm activity over a larger region. High pressure is usually more prevalent across the West during El Nino summers, while troughiness is more persistent across the NW during La Nina episodes, and it seems to go either way in ENSO neutral seasons. The last two summers, which were ENSO neutral, were more active in terms of monsoon activity across the SW and very active in CO last summer with a cutoff low in the mix that led to the terrible flash flooding in the Boulder area.

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What gets frustrating is watching each Pacific system crash into the Northwest giving Seattle record rainfall while waiting for a morsel down here.  Lets face it, we live in a drought-prone climate that only becomes more acute during winters like we just experienced. This may very well be the 'last hurray' since April is normally the start of the never-ending 'dry season'.

 

The good news is that it rained again in northern California w/ some 5pm totals of over an inch and up to a foot of snow in the high Sierras.

 

Squaw Valley [8000']: 27 /  21

Death Valley [-194']: 86 /  61

 

Hi: 68

Lo: 54

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What gets frustrating is watching each Pacific system crash into the Northwest giving Seattle record rainfall while waiting for a morsel down here.  Lets face it, we live in a drought-prone climate that only becomes more acute during winters like we just experienced. This may very well be the 'last hurray' since April is normally the start of the never-ending 'dry season'.

 

The good news is that it rained again in northern California w/ some 5pm totals of over an inch and up to a foot of snow in the high Sierras.

 

Squaw Valley [8000']: 27 /  21

Death Valley [-194']: 86 /  61

 

Hi: 68

Lo: 54

It is possible that this could be the last storm of the season now that we are at the beginning of April. The potential good news in the longer term is that there is a greater than normal chance of at least a moderate, if not stronger, El Nino event for next season. Like I stated in the post above, the summer could be more interesting than normal if El Nino conditions develop by then.

 

This has been one of the most frustrating rainy seasons that I have ever experienced with really only one major storm in Socal during the entire season. What made it even worse is that Socal only received between 5 and 6 inches of rain last season with a paltry 5.85" for downtown Los Angeles and the fact it has been so warm so many times throughout the winter. There has never been back to back seasons in which Los Angeles has recorded less than 7" since records began in 1877.

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I suppose as long as the mountains get snow that is the most important...but of course everybody wants something in their own backyard too :)

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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-
 
Single day Convective Outlook. ... from the "Storm Prediction Center", NWS.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/140401_spc_day1otlk_sm.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov./products/outlook/day1otlk.html  (.. current and updating.)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov./
 
Click on the image above for main outlook at the time of this submission. 

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It rained overnight and light rain is still occurring in San Diego county.  Not a lot of rain, of-course but more energy is out there for a few more days.  Bay Area picked up thunderstorms/ hail earlier.

 

Rain: 0.20

Total: 5.96 [rain year]

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It rained here in Orange for about an hour overnight last night and it came down moderately to even a bit heavy for a time. A brief shower just passed through a few minutes ago and it looks as if it will rain later tonight, probably in the overnight hours. I will post a total probably tomorrow after this second part of the storm goes through.

 

The latest AFD out of San Diego is indicating that after the warmup this weekend and early next week, there may be another shot of rain later next week.

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hey Dan, ...
 
Been watching this head your way.
 
Looks like some fairly significant instability out ahead of the main low center working: .. appearing at this point at least, to be on a general trajectory that might guide it "past" Point Conception. .... (!)
 
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml
 
Most recent image at time of submission. - 201404020845z west-ir 4km

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It also rained overnight here but it was so chilly that I closed the bedroom window and couldn't hear when the rain stated/ ended.  Again, not a lot of rain but any amount is welcome.  Minimums in the 40's are widespread this morning under clear skies but the upper low may destabilize the atmosphere enough to create thundershowers later today.

 

Rain: 0.14

April: 0.34

 

L: 48

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A nice little thunderstorm sprang up here around 3 p.m. this afternoon.  I could see it developing on NWS radar pretty much right above my location.  It rained for about half an hour with some brief heavy rain and small hail.  At the peak of the storm, the lightning flashes and thunderclaps came about every 15-30 seconds.  Closest strike about 1-2 seconds delay from flash to thunder.

 

Min temp (6:55 a.m.): 39

Max temp (1:33 p.m.): 54

Precip: 0.45"

Max Rain Rate: 2.59 in/hr

 

Your minimum is consistent w/ San Rafael Hills [40°]; thousand feet higher than my elevation.  A frosty delight for April and slowing down the drying of the soil from the modest rainfall. And before next week's heat. 

 

Interesting that downtown LA has higher rain totals than some foothills:

0.29                     

SINCE JUL 1:  6.02

 

Average mean for previous 2 days: 55° [coldest since March 1]

 

Say goodbye to some cool days:

 

Squaw Valley:  34 /  17

Death Valley: 80 /  49

 

H: 70

L: 49

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A nice little thunderstorm sprang up here around 3 p.m. this afternoon.  I could see it developing on NWS radar pretty much right above my location.  It rained for about half an hour with some brief heavy rain and small hail.  At the peak of the storm, the lightning flashes and thunderclaps came about every 15-30 seconds.  Closest strike about 1-2 seconds delay from flash to thunder.

 

Min temp (6:55 a.m.): 39

Max temp (1:33 p.m.): 54

Precip: 0.45"

Max Rain Rate: 2.59 in/hr

 

Orange County pretty much missed out on the thunderstorms yesterday afternoon, at least where I am. I picked up .33" from the storm over the last 2 days. I am not looking forward to the 90 degree spike of heat forecast for next week. I don't know why it just can't be in the 70's for next week like it should be for a typical spring day. Obviously it is a combination of offshore flow and high pressure aloft over the area that will be the culprit for the high temps.

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Orange County pretty much missed out on the thunderstorms yesterday afternoon, at least where I am. I picked up .33" from the storm over the last 2 days. I am not looking forward to the 90 degree spike of heat forecast for next week. I don't know why it just can't be in the 70's for next week like it should be for a typical spring day. Obviously it is a combination of offshore flow and high pressure aloft over the area that will be the culprit for the high temps.

 

I agree that we will have plenty of heat over for the next 6-8 months, no reason to start too soon with the 90's.

 

There was some rain along the Central Coast though generally under 0.50.  Next week's trough late in the week doesn't look very promising for rain down here. 

 

Squaw Valley:  35 /  23

Death Valley:  85 /  57

 

H: 66

L: 51

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Yesterday's Central California rain produced some light rainfall for Santa Barbara/ Ventura counties overnight. At least I hit the 6" mark for total rainfall a few days ago.  Still a chill in the air this morning.

 

Apr: 0.34

Year: 6.10

 

L: 51

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.. So what's your average, there where you are more specific .. happ. ?

 

I haven't taken rain measurements for long enough to get an average but nearby stations generally record between 16-19 inches yearly [about 3+ inches more than downtown LA]. 

 

There were some widely scattered showers overnight; San Diego 0.09

 

Squaw Valley: 40 /  15

Death Valley: 89 /  56

 

H: 70

L: 51

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Couldn't find any reports of rain in California which may stay that way for a while.  Nice day; warm enough to go swimming and cool enough to play croquet in full sun; both of which I did today. 

 

Squaw Valley:  47 /  25

Death Valley:  missing / 68

 

Thermal: 91°

 

H: 82

L: 55

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Warm day but I don't think there were many records broken, if any, in the state; maybe tomorrow before a cool down later in the week.

 

Squaw Valley [8000']  53 /  33

Death Valley [-194']   96 /  74

 

H: 90

L: 60 

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 .. Main cold, is moving south again "happ".  And with [a] still relatively sluggish movement of cold / within and of the atmosphere looked at more as a whole over the next few days (No major shear of any ridge development, or ridge more in place.), and even with colder air being set to begin moving more assertively east once those few days pass by, .. a very least some cooler and more "moderating" cool, could certainly make its way as for south as your are.
 
(.. cross-ference.)  http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/201-early-spring-2014-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=24322
 
More meridional steering and spread of colder air south with its at the same time slowing, through the next few days. And then with the greater topography of Coast working to obtrude colder air's main path more eastward, it being steered, more south.

 

 

"... Check, the Tweets."

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I look forward to the cooling, Richard.  This morning while driving to work and having to turn on the air conditioning at 8:30am I was thinking how much it reminded me of a day in July.  The thought of hot weather for many months to come kind of made me feel sad.  80's-90's throughout California today and the deserts are pushing 100°

 

Squaw Valley: 54 / 31

 

Death Valley: 100 / 61

 

H: 93

L: 64

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I look forward to the cooling, Richard.  This morning while driving to work and having to turn on the air conditioning at 8:30am I was thinking how much it reminded me of a day in July.  The thought of hot weather for many months to come kind of made me feel sad.  80's-90's throughout California today and the deserts are pushing 100°

 

Squaw Valley: 54 / 31

 

Death Valley: 100 / 61

 

H: 93

L: 64

 

I also thought it felt like a July day today, only that the humidity was lower. I am looking forward to cooler weather, which is forecast for later this week. it is too early to crack 90 this time of year, even though it happens from time to time.

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I also thought it felt like a July day today, only that the humidity was lower. I am looking forward to cooler weather, which is forecast for later this week. it is too early to crack 90 this time of year, even though it happens from time to time.

 

Agree, the only thing that made today not like a July day was the low humidity and cooler nights than what we normally get during summer.  But the pale blue sky and quick warm up right after sunrise seemed very summer-like.  The usual Orange County coastal plain areas of Yorba Linda, Fullerton, Santa Ana, Lake Forest were well into the 90's today.

 

But the records for April are around 100 for metro LA so these heat waves haven't been too bad, plus with light breezes and dry air it feels fairly comfortable.

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Aside from good cumulus development over the Sierra, the upper low is dry and the outlook isn't favorable for rainfall next week.

 

Squaw Valley: 56 /  37

Death Valley: 103 /  72

 

H: 83

L: 59

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Aside from good cumulus development over the Sierra, the upper low is dry and the outlook isn't favorable for rainfall next week.

 

Squaw Valley: 56 /  37

Death Valley: 103 /  72

 

H: 83

L: 59

 

I am beginning to think our rainy season may be over now, such as it was. Hopefully a good El Nino develops later this year and we have a much better year next year, and I feel that the chances are better this time around. The PDO (now positive) and AMO (now negative) indices are more favorable for us now if they continue to trend in the direction that they are right now, but it will take the atmosphere a while to readjust.

 

Just to put it into perspective how truly awful these last two winters have been, Los Angeles only received 5.85" last season and this year they are at 6.02". If L.A. finishes the season at 6.02", it will be the first time in the period of record (records began in 1877) that they have recorded two consecutive sub 7" seasons, which means that we are in really rare territory.

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I am beginning to think our rainy season may be over now, such as it was. Hopefully a good El Nino develops later this year and we have a much better year next year, and I feel that the chances are better this time around. The PDO (now positive) and AMO (now negative) indices are more favorable for us now if they continue to trend in the direction that they are right now, but it will take the atmosphere a while to readjust.

 

Just to put it into perspective how truly awful these last two winters have been, Los Angeles only received 5.85" last season and this year they are at 6.02". If L.A. finishes the season at 6.02", it will be the first time in the period of record (records began in 1877) that they have recorded two consecutive sub 7" seasons, which means that we are in really rare territory.

 

I heard recently that north Pacific ocean water temps are the highest since the 1970's.  If an El Nino or decent rain year doesn't happen under these favorable circumstances then I will be very disappointed.

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I heard recently that north Pacific ocean water temps are the highest since the 1970's.  If an El Nino or decent rain year doesn't happen under these favorable circumstances then I will be very disappointed.

 

Hopefully El Nino forms this year to help to alleviate the drought this next winter. Like I said before, conditions seem more favorable this time around. I would be very disappointed if this El Nino attempt fails. We almost had El Nino for the 2012-13 season, only to fizzle to ENSO neutral in the early to mid fall, leaving us with a -PDO, +AMO, ENSO neutral regime that tends to lead to record dryness around here and that is precisely what happened.

 

If we get a strong El Nino and we have another very dry winter, then I know that either there is something abnormal or there is something completely different going on somewhere we haven't seen in recent history.

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Interesting how a dry trough can knock down temps some 10-15 degrees even in the desert.  Nothing exciting about the long-term forecast. 

 

Squaw Valley: 51 /  37

Death Valley: 102 / 78

 

H 68

L 56

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I hope that doesn't verify either and it almost looks like a heat wave. I am really getting tired of every 6-10 or 8-14 day outlook this year showing above normal temperatures for our region of the country just like the one you linked to above, as it has almost seemed as if I have been looking at the same outlook again and again day in and day out.

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Still cool today but warm for a few days, it looks, and dry for the week, as usual.  It was even warmer in Seattle than downtown LA today; how often does that happen?

 

Squaw Valley: 50 /  29

Death Valley: 100 / 75

 

H: 70

L: 56

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Still cool today but warm for a few days, it looks, and dry for the week, as usual.  It was even warmer in Seattle than downtown LA today; how often does that happen?

 

Squaw Valley: 50 /  29

Death Valley: 100 / 75

 

H: 70

L: 56

 

That probably doesn't happen very often, especially this time of year when they are still getting fairly frequent storm systems.

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