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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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As we approach the 2nd fastest warming month of the year, our sub forum (except for the southern Plains) is NOT going to feel like Spring but more like Winter.  Nature has decided to throw a wrench into Spring-like wx for the majority of our members.  When will this end???

 

March has been a rather wild ride for much of the nation and forecast models are suggesting another wild open to the month of April.  The latest CFSv2 weeklies show the cold open for early April standards....if you want to believe the LRC, the first 10-15 days of the month should on average stay BN.  I'm hoping for a mid-month temp rally but if the blocking is still holding strong, then expect a battle zone across our sub.  As we get deeper into April, Spring-like warmth will certainly begin to blossom in the southern Plains and eventually win out, but it will in turn turn very wet where the clash of air masses takes shape.

 

 

cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2018032500

 

 

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

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CFSv2 trends...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201804.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201804.gif

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Guess I should be talking about this here instead of the March thread. I'm not willing to believe in a storm on the 3rd quite yet. A) There's little ensemble support and B ) As far as I know, GFS is the only one showing this. We all know what happens when GFS is the only one showing a storm. Powdery snow in April would be something, though.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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And the Canadian.  Ok, at this point I'm truly ready for spring, this last one was fun and all, but it's time to warm up.

 

 

gem_asnow_ncus_40.png

Yup, I want some 70s now. But the first week of April isn't looking so hot. Given I don't want the snow, probably gonna get a 24" storm

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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GEFS mean snowfall going into 4/4 is 4.7" for here. Anybody have access to Euro ensembles?

 

KLNK_2018032512_forecast_EPS_precip_360.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro snowfall through the next 10 days...looks like a map you'd see during the winter months...the signal is there for a wintry period...

 

LOL @ same ole dead zone for ORD and SWMI...and I thought last winter had some stretches of wx h*ll   :lol:  :wacko:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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So, any severe weather expected for April. I hope so! :huh:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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attachicon.gifGEM 2.png

12Z GEM much more bullish on snow than the GFS.  

 

Yep, I get 3" vs 1"  :lol:   Prolly still be getting dustings in June at this rate.. :rolleyes:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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60s and 70s all day!!

 

100% this. I don't like what the models are showing at all lol I know LNKWx likes this weather right now but I can't stand it. I'd prefer to go running outside in shorts rather than in sweatpants and a hoody where I end up having to blow my nose every 5 ft. and walk inside looking like Rudolph the red nosed reindeer because it's 36 degrees outside. No thanks. However, if we get one of those riled up storms that drop intense thundersnow only to melt the next day, I can't say I'd be too upset :D

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100% this. I don't like what the models are showing at all lol I know LNKWx likes this weather right now but I can't stand it. I'd prefer to go running outside in shorts rather than in sweatpants and a hoody where I end up having to blow my nose every 5 ft. and walk inside looking like Rudolph the red nosed reindeer because it's 36 degrees outside. No thanks. However, if we get one of those riled up storms that drop intense thundersnow only to melt the next day, I can't say I'd be too upset :D

I LOVE THIS WEATHER and I wish we had it every day. I'd be a much happier person. Sunny weather makes me want to write dark poems on this thread.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Sheesh, the Euro weeklies are definitely holding onto to widespread BN temps this entire month and even into the first 10 days of May.  Some warmer periods are mixing in but the general theme is "No Torch" in site.  Head to Cali/SW and FL where  temps are largely AN if you want some spring fever.

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Next 4 weeks per the CFSv2....where were you in the winter???

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

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NWS Hastings morning disco.  Accumulating snow on the Easter Eggs?  

 

..winter is not over yet as Arctic air will plunge south into
the region and it could be followed by accumulating snow at
times...

There is a pool of Arctic air over wrn Canada this am...where
temps are below zero and as cold as -26f. This pool will expand
and eventually unload into the cntrl/ern Continental U.S.. there will be a
few very cold days ahead over the next 2 wks. I think lows in the
teens for 1-3 days and highs in the 20s for 1 day are on The
Table.

Precip: there are 2 main periods of concern as there is potential
for accumulating snow that is not currently reflected in our fcst
due to model disagreement/uncertainty. They are centered on Thu
and sun. Model/ensemble qpfs vary greatly...but we cont to see
some qpfs that are very aggressive. Most are not...but believe
it's important to communicate what we are seeing. There are not
big/deep lows that will be crossing the rgn which is a large
reason for the uncertainty...but sufficient forcing exists for
some light-moderate snowfall amts (1-2 or as much as 4-6") for
parts of the County Warning Area.

Wed night thru Thu night needs to be watched as the upr trof and
the lfq of an upr-lvl jet streak move thru. The forcing aloft will
be there and this situation looks like the more potent of the two.
Sun has an fgen-band look to it.

Suggest closely monitoring future fcsts as more details come into
focus.

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Looping the GFS and seeing snow and 2m temps in the teens/20s into mid-April makes me want to crawl back under the covers.

No joke!  Pretty remarkable to see those temps being advertised not only by the GFS but the Euro as well.  Not a nice looking forecast for Easter this year!

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It looks like we are in for a cold Easter weekend so I thought I would look to see what some of the records are for both March 31st and April 1st

At Grand Rapids on March 31st the average H/L is 51/32 the record high is 78° set in 2010 the coldest maximum is a cold 20° set in 1923 the record low is also in 1920 at a bone chilling +6° the most snow fall is 3.7” in 1951. The last time there was more than a trace of snow was in 1991 (0.4”) the last time there was one inch or more was in 1975 with 2”

For April 1st the average H/L is 52/32 the record high is 82 in 2010 the recorded coldest maximum is 29 in 1911. The record low is 13 in 1954 the most snow fall is 4.8” in 1972 The last time more than a trace fell was in 2002 when 0.9” fell there was a trace in 2016, 2013, 2009 and 2007.  The last time more than 1” fell was in 1993 when 2.8” fell and there was a reported 1” on the ground.

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