Tom Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 As we approach the 2nd fastest warming month of the year, our sub forum (except for the southern Plains) is NOT going to feel like Spring but more like Winter. Nature has decided to throw a wrench into Spring-like wx for the majority of our members. When will this end??? March has been a rather wild ride for much of the nation and forecast models are suggesting another wild open to the month of April. The latest CFSv2 weeklies show the cold open for early April standards....if you want to believe the LRC, the first 10-15 days of the month should on average stay BN. I'm hoping for a mid-month temp rally but if the blocking is still holding strong, then expect a battle zone across our sub. As we get deeper into April, Spring-like warmth will certainly begin to blossom in the southern Plains and eventually win out, but it will in turn turn very wet where the clash of air masses takes shape. Let's discuss... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 CFSv2 trends... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201804.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201804.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Shame it's not November 25th instead of March 25th. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 I decided to get a golf membership this year, and the course opens on April 2nd. Based on the GFS, it probably won't be opening on April 2nd. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018032512/222/sn10_024h.us_mw.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 12Z GFS hits Nebraska hard with a snowstorm next Monday-Tuesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Could we be on the verge of back to back LRC cycles that produced a historic stretch of winter weather? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Holy Cow GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Guess I should be talking about this here instead of the March thread. I'm not willing to believe in a storm on the 3rd quite yet. A) There's little ensemble support and B ) As far as I know, GFS is the only one showing this. We all know what happens when GFS is the only one showing a storm. Powdery snow in April would be something, though. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 And the Canadian. Ok, at this point I'm truly ready for spring, this last one was fun and all, but it's time to warm up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 And the Canadian. Ok, at this point I'm truly ready for spring, this last one was fun and all, but it's time to warm up. Yup, I want some 70s now. But the first week of April isn't looking so hot. Given I don't want the snow, probably gonna get a 24" storm 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 My, oh my, the 12z GEFS are dropping the arctic hammer for the first week of April with several chances of snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 This should be fun... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 12z GEFS members showing some hits for the 1st system on Easter... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Euro also showing snow late next weekend. Ugghhhh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 GEFS mean snowfall going into 4/4 is 4.7" for here. Anybody have access to Euro ensembles? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 GEFS mean snowfall going into 4/4 is 4.7" for here. Anybody have access to Euro ensembles? Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 KLNK_2018032512_forecast_EPS_precip_360.pngWow. Neither of the OPs are impressive anymore but both sets of ensembles still have some rather bullish members. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 Wow. Neither of the OPs are impressive anymore but both sets of ensembles still have some rather bullish members.It'll be back. The ensembles look decent. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 It'll be back. The ensembles look decent.What are you basing this off of? I think it's more likely that more and more ensemble members gradually lose a system for early next week. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 00z Euro snowfall through the next 10 days...looks like a map you'd see during the winter months...the signal is there for a wintry period... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 00z Euro snowfall through the next 10 days...looks like a map you'd see during the winter months...the signal is there for a wintry period...North Texas snow in April? That'd be a record. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 00z Euro snowfall through the next 10 days...looks like a map you'd see during the winter months...the signal is there for a wintry period... LOL @ same ole dead zone for ORD and SWMI...and I thought last winter had some stretches of wx h*ll 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 GFS has now taken next week's storm and changed it to rain. But at least there's a 19" snowstorm @ 276! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 So, any severe weather expected for April. I hope so! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 12Z GEM much more bullish on snow than the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 GEM 2.png12Z GEM much more bullish on snow than the GFS. Yep, I get 3" vs 1" Prolly still be getting dustings in June at this rate.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 12Z GFS now showing 60s and 70s here the week after Easter. Brief cool down on Easter and then right back to warmth. Not much for snow either until hour 276 when it shows a big system. Crazy to see the changes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 60s and 70s all day!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 60s and 70s all day!! 100% this. I don't like what the models are showing at all lol I know LNKWx likes this weather right now but I can't stand it. I'd prefer to go running outside in shorts rather than in sweatpants and a hoody where I end up having to blow my nose every 5 ft. and walk inside looking like Rudolph the red nosed reindeer because it's 36 degrees outside. No thanks. However, if we get one of those riled up storms that drop intense thundersnow only to melt the next day, I can't say I'd be too upset 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted March 26, 2018 Report Share Posted March 26, 2018 NWS saying the GFS is out on its own with this weekends forecast and they seem to be trusting the GEM/EURO party for the weekend. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 27, 2018 Report Share Posted March 27, 2018 100% this. I don't like what the models are showing at all lol I know LNKWx likes this weather right now but I can't stand it. I'd prefer to go running outside in shorts rather than in sweatpants and a hoody where I end up having to blow my nose every 5 ft. and walk inside looking like Rudolph the red nosed reindeer because it's 36 degrees outside. No thanks. However, if we get one of those riled up storms that drop intense thundersnow only to melt the next day, I can't say I'd be too upset I LOVE THIS WEATHER and I wish we had it every day. I'd be a much happier person. Sunny weather makes me want to write dark poems on this thread. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2018 Latest Euro weeklies suggesting a continuation of a very wet pattern across the eastern sub... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2018 Sheesh, the Euro weeklies are definitely holding onto to widespread BN temps this entire month and even into the first 10 days of May. Some warmer periods are mixing in but the general theme is "No Torch" in site. Head to Cali/SW and FL where temps are largely AN if you want some spring fever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2018 Next 4 weeks per the CFSv2....where were you in the winter??? http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 27, 2018 Report Share Posted March 27, 2018 NWS Hastings morning disco. Accumulating snow on the Easter Eggs? ..winter is not over yet as Arctic air will plunge south intothe region and it could be followed by accumulating snow attimes...There is a pool of Arctic air over wrn Canada this am...wheretemps are below zero and as cold as -26f. This pool will expandand eventually unload into the cntrl/ern Continental U.S.. there will be afew very cold days ahead over the next 2 wks. I think lows in theteens for 1-3 days and highs in the 20s for 1 day are on TheTable.Precip: there are 2 main periods of concern as there is potentialfor accumulating snow that is not currently reflected in our fcstdue to model disagreement/uncertainty. They are centered on Thuand sun. Model/ensemble qpfs vary greatly...but we cont to seesome qpfs that are very aggressive. Most are not...but believeit's important to communicate what we are seeing. There are notbig/deep lows that will be crossing the rgn which is a largereason for the uncertainty...but sufficient forcing exists forsome light-moderate snowfall amts (1-2 or as much as 4-6") forparts of the County Warning Area.Wed night thru Thu night needs to be watched as the upr trof andthe lfq of an upr-lvl jet streak move thru. The forcing aloft willbe there and this situation looks like the more potent of the two.Sun has an fgen-band look to it.Suggest closely monitoring future fcsts as more details come intofocus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 27, 2018 Report Share Posted March 27, 2018 Looping the GFS and seeing snow and 2m temps in the teens/20s into mid-April makes me want to crawl back under the covers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2018 Looping the GFS and seeing snow and 2m temps in the teens/20s into mid-April makes me want to crawl back under the covers.No joke! Pretty remarkable to see those temps being advertised not only by the GFS but the Euro as well. Not a nice looking forecast for Easter this year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 27, 2018 Report Share Posted March 27, 2018 If we're not gonna have any severe thunderstorms in April may as well have snow chances! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 28, 2018 Report Share Posted March 28, 2018 The year without a spring. This past winter and current spring reminds me so much of 2012-13. Crazy weather. It never snowed until May 3 here that year. Latest snow ever. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted March 28, 2018 Report Share Posted March 28, 2018 It looks like we are in for a cold Easter weekend so I thought I would look to see what some of the records are for both March 31st and April 1stAt Grand Rapids on March 31st the average H/L is 51/32 the record high is 78° set in 2010 the coldest maximum is a cold 20° set in 1923 the record low is also in 1920 at a bone chilling +6° the most snow fall is 3.7” in 1951. The last time there was more than a trace of snow was in 1991 (0.4”) the last time there was one inch or more was in 1975 with 2”For April 1st the average H/L is 52/32 the record high is 82 in 2010 the recorded coldest maximum is 29 in 1911. The record low is 13 in 1954 the most snow fall is 4.8” in 1972 The last time more than a trace fell was in 2002 when 0.9” fell there was a trace in 2016, 2013, 2009 and 2007. The last time more than 1” fell was in 1993 when 2.8” fell and there was a reported 1” on the ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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