hlcater Posted March 28, 2018 Report Share Posted March 28, 2018 Snow chances in April are terrible. Let’s just get a high risk in the plains already. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 28, 2018 Report Share Posted March 28, 2018 Snow chances in April are terrible. Let’s just get a high risk in the plains already.I'd send you all of those high risk days you could stand if you wanted them. Lol. I'll pass. Severe wx just gets old when you're used to it I guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 28, 2018 Report Share Posted March 28, 2018 NWS Hastings really backing off of snow chances. Not that I want more snow, but fairly typical of the year, chances look good several days out, then fade away. Hope to get some decent moisture from the system, but that is even looking less likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pack402 Posted March 28, 2018 Report Share Posted March 28, 2018 I’ll pass on the high risk as well. Seems like big hail and destructive winds are the norm in eastern ne anymore. I’m tired of insurance claims and constant work on my home, property and vehicles. Give me a good lightning show and some rumbles of thunder in the distance and I’m happy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 28, 2018 Report Share Posted March 28, 2018 Yeah I'll also pass on the tennis ball hail we seem to get at least 3 times each Spring 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 28, 2018 Report Share Posted March 28, 2018 NWS Hastings now says snow for Central and Southwest portions of Nebraska this weekend with several inches falling. Boy they have flip flopped this week. I don't buy any scenario yet. Usually they wait until very close to an event, but they have been talking about this system since Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted March 28, 2018 Report Share Posted March 28, 2018 All of the sudden the GFS showing a big warmup in the middle of the country after the initial week of April. Seems more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 This is gonna leave a mark into the #delayedSpring pattern... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 JMA Weeklies pretty much agreeing with the CFSv2 on any noteable warm periods this month. Head to the west/SW....or of course, the south looks pretty nice, esp the beaches of FL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 I'm pretty sure many on here are sick of hearing about the cold pattern forthcmoing. Not much else to talk about unless you have anything else on your mind. Week 2 cold looks brutal, for April standards, lining up quite well with the LRC's coldest period each cycle. 00z Euro control is certainly painting the cold look. I wonder if the incoming cold breaks any records this month, and if we do indeed see some places get hit with April snows....will there be a biggie farther south April 8th-11th??? 00z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 29, 2018 Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 When it's gonna be cold in the spring you can count on Tom posts. Warm? You can count on them from me. A couple years ago I remember being torn up for cfs posts when they showed warmth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 When it's gonna be cold in the spring you can count on Tom posts. Warm? You can count on them from me. A couple years ago I remember being torn up for cfs posts when they showed warmth.Not true. I guess you missed several posts I made over the past few weeks of possible warmth, of which, is now beginning to look non existence to due the extensive blocking pattern. I would love to see a warm Spring and post torches instead of this gloomy, cloudy, cold, wet and boring extended cold pattern. Believe me, I'm not the "old poster" I once was always posting about cold all the time. I've grown to provide more balance in this forum which is the growth I've endured. In reference to the CFSv2, since 2 years ago, this model has been doing an amazing job post-upgrade and I've been using it as a tool quite often actually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 29, 2018 Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 Ugh. Snow moved north. Now it’s just going to be cold and dry. A low of 12F in the point for Saturday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 29, 2018 Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 More snow for the EC??? https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/03/28/spring-snowstorm-northeast-heres-not-question/ Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 29, 2018 Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 Yeah this cold isn't gonna be good for the planting season. The last thing we need is killing freezes in May. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 Yeah this cold isn't gonna be good for the planting season. The last thing we need is killing freezes in May.Remember last year's late April CO/KS blizzard that killed plenty of cattle and I believe their wheat took a hit??? I wonder if some places this year get hit with a large snow storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 I think the 12z GFS just read the script off of the LRC for Week 2! Gotta love it...not only does the Polar Vortex make a visit into the GL's late next week into the weekend but a potent system develops across the Plains... Snowstorm anyone??? Fits the pattern...all I'm saying... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018032912/240/snku_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 29, 2018 Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 I'm pretty sure many on here are sick of hearing about the cold pattern forthcmoing. Not much else to talk about unless you have anything else on your mind. Week 2 cold looks brutal, for April standards, lining up quite well with the LRC's coldest period each cycle. 00z Euro control is certainly painting the cold look. I wonder if the incoming cold breaks any records this month, and if we do indeed see some places get hit with April snows....will there be a biggie farther south April 8th-11th??? 00z GEFS... That's been a favored track this winter..go with it More snow for the EC??? https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/03/28/spring-snowstorm-northeast-heres-not-question/ ..here's a Quarter - phone someone who cares Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 29, 2018 Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 I'm even less convinced that the LRC actually exists than I was before the season..... 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 I'm even less convinced that the LRC actually exists than I was before the season.....You should read his peer review paper and follow his Weather2020 blog and it may open up your mind to the cyclical nature of the westerly belt across the Northern Hemisphere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 29, 2018 Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 Euro ensemble mean is looking pretty snowy for some areas. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 29, 2018 Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 I have been out of the loop today taking our Junior daughter on college visits, going to visit UNL tomorrow, Go Big Red, and just saw the 12z GFS, holy cow. That snow would break some snowfall records if it verified. Doubt we get anywhere near those totals, but pattern is conducive to storminess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 Euro ensemble mean is looking pretty snowy for some areas. eps_acc_snow_conus_360.pngThat's just insane...history may be re-written during this 2 week stretch in April...12z Euro has a major snowstorm late next week and both GFS/EURO are showing something across our sub forum. I think someone is due to get hit hard late next week and fits the Feb 18th-20th storm system which ejected out of CO and tracked towards the GL's. This system was an elongated SLP with a very tight thermal gradient across NE/IA/MN/WI and produced ample moisture (Flood watches for IL/S WI/IN/MI). I think we will be seeing a lot more wintry precip this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 29, 2018 Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 Here's the latest euro ensemble guidance for Cedar Rapids... pretty awful. The avg high temp goes from 53 to 59 during the period. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 29, 2018 Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 MPX said it best in their morning disco. Wind chills on Sunday morning may be in the -10 to -20F range in parts of MN. Yet record temps by late April are in the 90s. April is going to be one of the more interesting months of the year. We’re likely going into record cold territory to start. But if the ridge breaks we could see a complete 180 within a very short amount of time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 29, 2018 Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 Gfs with a pretty good snowstorm Monday/Tuesday next week http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018032918&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted March 29, 2018 Report Share Posted March 29, 2018 For a lot of members on this sub-forum there never really was a winter. Now it looks as though there really won't be a spring! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 30, 2018 Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 MPX said it best in their morning disco. Wind chills on Sunday morning may be in the -10 to -20F range in parts of MN. Yet record temps by late April are in the 90s. April is going to be one of the more interesting months of the year. We’re likely going into record cold territory to start. But if the ridge breaks we could see a complete 180 within a very short amount of time.I'd like to see that ridge keep retrograding out until it parks itself over the NE PAC and AK by late spring. If we could see that develop, would be both a strong late May and June storm season and a great setup post-summer. This pattern down here is simply depressing at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 30, 2018 Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 We average 1" in April so it definitely isn't out of the question. We haven't gotten April measurable snow since 2013. I'm too lazy to check when the last time we got a REAL snowfall in April was, but I'm thinking it was in the 90s. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 30, 2018 Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 18z GFS and 12z euro both want to drop the arctic hammer next Saturday. Would easily be colder than anything in March if it verified lol. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 30, 2018 Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 18z GFS and 12z euro both want to drop the arctic hammer next Saturday. Would easily be colder than anything in March if it verified lol.No kidding. Highs in the mid-20s in April? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted March 30, 2018 Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 How comical for the wave on Sunday to go south of us lol. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come north eventually since thats what most clippers have done. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 30, 2018 Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 How comical for the wave on Sunday to go south of us lol. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come north eventually since thats what most clippers have done.If it snows measurably in Omaha Sunday I'll personally deliver you $5. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 30, 2018 Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 Wasn’t it supposed to snow today according to some of the models earlier this week? This weekend is going to be nothing but maybe some flurries if that. March will end up with less than 1” of snow here in Omaha. Epic indeed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 30, 2018 Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 My f***** god 00z GFS is wacko. 6" and still snowing on Kuchera @231. With GFS' track record, I am 100% sure it will totally verify. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 30, 2018 Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 6z GFs showing widespread 12–24” across Nebraska Iowa and Illinois. Not that that will happen but it shows the larger point that spring isn’t coming anytime soon. If this verified it will have to be one of the coldest starts to spring we’ve had in a long time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 @CentralNeb, all the models are showing your area getting a few inches this weekend. Your prob the only one on here that has a chance of a White Easter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 Wasn’t it supposed to snow today according to some of the models earlier this week? This weekend is going to be nothing but maybe some flurries if that. March will end up with less than 1” of snow here in Omaha. Epic indeed.Where are those 60's? Enjoy the cold Easter. Epic severe wx season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 30, 2018 Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 Going out on a limb against all the talk in here and say that Marshall manages to escape any additional measurable snowfall. Already my grid for the upcoming week is full of RN/SN crud. We dip into the 20's some nights when it's clear, but not quite cold enuff aloft during the moisture periods to be legit snowfall. Same story as the past 40+ days really. True winter exited here on or about St. Valentine's Day. Ever since, we've been living in a nether world that I can only term Wx Purgatory. Winter for mby was approximately 2 mos from Dec 7th to Feb 14th. During that period, snowfall was substantial but the regular complete torch-offs and the manner in which they happened really pulls the grade down from what it could've been. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2018 GEFS show a mean of 10"+ of snow for practically all of NE, except for E NE, up into most of MN into N/C WI through the middle of the month. That's just incredible to even see a model consistently show the potential for that much snow in April. I'm hearing the EPS is similar as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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