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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I’ll pass on the high risk as well. Seems like big hail and destructive winds are the norm in eastern ne anymore. I’m tired of insurance claims and constant work on my home, property and vehicles. Give me a good lightning show and some rumbles of thunder in the distance and I’m happy.

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I'm pretty sure many on here are sick of hearing about the cold pattern forthcmoing.  Not much else to talk about unless you have anything else on your mind.  Week 2 cold looks brutal, for April standards, lining up quite well with the LRC's coldest period each cycle.  00z Euro control is certainly painting the cold look.  I wonder if the incoming cold breaks any records this month, and if we do indeed see some places get hit with April snows....will there be a biggie farther south April 8th-11th???

 

00z GEFS...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

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When it's gonna be cold in the spring you can count on Tom posts. Warm? You can count on them from me.

 

A couple years ago I remember being torn up for cfs posts when they showed warmth.

Not true.  I guess you missed several posts I made over the past few weeks of possible warmth, of which, is now beginning to look non existence to due the extensive blocking pattern.  I would love to see a warm Spring and post torches instead of this gloomy, cloudy, cold, wet and boring extended cold pattern.  Believe me, I'm not the "old poster" I once was always posting about cold all the time.  I've grown to provide more balance in this forum which is the growth I've endured.

 

In reference to the CFSv2, since 2 years ago, this model has been doing an amazing job post-upgrade and I've been using it as a tool quite often actually.

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Yeah this cold isn't gonna be good for the planting season. The last thing we need is killing freezes in May.

Remember last year's late April CO/KS blizzard that killed plenty of cattle and I believe their wheat took a hit???  I wonder if some places this year get hit with a large snow storm.

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I think the 12z GFS just read the script off of the LRC for Week 2!  Gotta love it...not only does the Polar Vortex make a visit into the GL's late next week into the weekend but a potent system develops across the Plains...

 

gfs_z500a_us_34.png

 

 

 

Snowstorm anyone???  Fits the pattern...all I'm saying...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018032912/240/snku_acc.us_c.png

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I'm pretty sure many on here are sick of hearing about the cold pattern forthcmoing.  Not much else to talk about unless you have anything else on your mind.  Week 2 cold looks brutal, for April standards, lining up quite well with the LRC's coldest period each cycle.  00z Euro control is certainly painting the cold look.  I wonder if the incoming cold breaks any records this month, and if we do indeed see some places get hit with April snows....will there be a biggie farther south April 8th-11th???

 

00z GEFS...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

That's been a favored track this winter..go with it

 

 

..here's a Quarter - phone someone who cares

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm even less convinced that the LRC actually exists than I was before the season.....

You should read his peer review paper and follow his Weather2020 blog and it may open up your mind to the cyclical nature of the westerly belt across the Northern Hemisphere.

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Euro ensemble mean is looking pretty snowy for some areas.

 

attachicon.gifeps_acc_snow_conus_360.png

That's just insane...history may be re-written during this 2 week stretch in April...12z Euro has a major snowstorm late next week and both GFS/EURO are showing something across our sub forum.  I think someone is due to get hit hard late next week and fits the Feb 18th-20th storm system which ejected out of CO and tracked towards the GL's.  This system was an elongated SLP with a very tight thermal gradient across NE/IA/MN/WI and produced ample moisture (Flood watches for IL/S WI/IN/MI).  I think we will be seeing a lot more wintry precip this time.

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Here's the latest euro ensemble guidance for Cedar Rapids... pretty awful.  The avg high temp goes from 53 to 59 during the period.

 

KCID_2018032912_forecast_EPS_360.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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MPX said it best in their morning disco. Wind chills on Sunday morning may be in the -10 to -20F range in parts of MN. Yet record temps by late April are in the 90s. April is going to be one of the more interesting months of the year. We’re likely going into record cold territory to start. But if the ridge breaks we could see a complete 180 within a very short amount of time.

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MPX said it best in their morning disco. Wind chills on Sunday morning may be in the -10 to -20F range in parts of MN. Yet record temps by late April are in the 90s. April is going to be one of the more interesting months of the year. We’re likely going into record cold territory to start. But if the ridge breaks we could see a complete 180 within a very short amount of time.

I'd like to see that ridge keep retrograding out until it parks itself over the NE PAC and AK by late spring. If we could see that develop, would be both a strong late May and June storm season and a great setup post-summer. This pattern down here is simply depressing at this point.

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We average 1" in April so it definitely isn't out of the question. We haven't gotten April measurable snow since 2013. I'm too lazy to check when the last time we got a REAL snowfall in April was, but I'm thinking it was in the 90s.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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How comical for the wave on Sunday to go south of us lol. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come north eventually since thats what most clippers have done.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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How comical for the wave on Sunday to go south of us lol. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come north eventually since thats what most clippers have done.

If it snows measurably in Omaha Sunday I'll personally deliver you $5.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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6z GFs showing widespread 12–24” across Nebraska Iowa and Illinois. Not that that will happen but it shows the larger point that spring isn’t coming anytime soon. If this verified it will have to be one of the coldest starts to spring we’ve had in a long time.

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Wasn’t it supposed to snow today according to some of the models earlier this week? This weekend is going to be nothing but maybe some flurries if that. March will end up with less than 1” of snow here in Omaha. Epic indeed.

Where are those 60's?  Enjoy the cold Easter.  Epic severe wx season.

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Going out on a limb against all the talk in here and say that Marshall manages to escape any additional measurable snowfall. Already my grid for the upcoming week is full of RN/SN crud. We dip into the 20's some nights when it's clear, but not quite cold enuff aloft during the moisture periods to be legit snowfall. Same story as the past 40+ days really. True winter exited here on or about St. Valentine's Day. Ever since, we've been living in a nether world that I can only term Wx Purgatory. Winter for mby was approximately 2 mos from Dec 7th to Feb 14th. During that period, snowfall was substantial but the regular complete torch-offs and the manner in which they happened really pulls the grade down from what it could've been.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GEFS show a mean of 10"+ of snow for practically all of NE, except for E NE, up into most of MN into N/C WI through the middle of the month.  That's just incredible to even see a model consistently show the potential for that much snow in April.  I'm hearing the EPS is similar as well.

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