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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I am in Lincoln today and have seen the forecast back in Central Nebraska they have already issued a WWA just to my west. My local forecast has 2-4 inches as of right now for Saturday night through Easter services on Sunday. I am an usher at church Sunday, might have to shovel the sidewalks in front of the church. Looks like a crazy pattern. I think it depends on timing, it would be more snow if it comes at night and not during the daylight hours with an April sun angle.

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GEFS show a mean of 10"+ of snow for practically all of NE, except for E NE, up into most of MN into N/C WI through the middle of the month. That's just incredible to even see a model consistently show the potential for that much snow in April. I'm hearing the EPS is similar as well.

I was just going to post this. I took a look at the 6z GEFS and some of the snow totals are mind blowing for April. Heck, they’d be pretty solid totals for January. The temp anomalies for late next week are insane on the GFS.

B0D843C0-34DA-4248-A669-F566BF019D9D.png

D48198DE-834B-4F0A-9C0A-285CC2E894F5.png

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Not a pretty outlook per recent trends via the CFSv2 this month....

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201804.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201804.gif

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I was just going to post this. I took a look at the 6z GEFS and some of the snow totals are mind blowing for April. Heck, they’d be pretty solid totals for January. The temp anomalies for late next week are insane on the GFS.

Not only that, but to see both the GFS/Euro on board with the idea of the Polar Vortex making a visit next weekend is phenomenal. 00z Euro suggesting near 0F lows not far from you but of course, your prob going to need snow OTG if those temps come close to verifying.

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Where are those 60's? Enjoy the cold Easter. Epic severe wx season.

60 today. 60 this past Wednesday. Big deal, 40s this weekend with no snow. Back to 50s on Monday. As far as after that, it hasn’t snowed a flake yet in April and these clown maps we’ve seen numerous times this winter. We’re above normal for temperatures in March and we had 1 inch of snow. This winter we’ve had average or above average temperatures for every month except for one and have had 16 inches of snow, thus my skepticism. I believe you have said at least three times this season, this is a weather pattern you’ve never seen before, yet basically the entire forum is only near or even below average for snowfall. When you speak in hyperbole all the time and it doesn’t deliver.... Yet at the end of the day you don’t control the weather so I’m not sure why you get so ticked off when someone says they don’t believe it or you.

Btw, severe weather season hasn’t even started yet. It’s March 30th. And I’ve made no claims of an epic severe weather season.

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This April, cold weather shaping up is pissing me off and its simply pathetic. We are suppose to be getting severe weather man. WTF! :angry:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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60 today. 60 this past Wednesday. Big deal, 40s this weekend with no snow. Back to 50s on Monday. As far as after that, it hasn’t snowed a flake yet in April and these clown maps we’ve seen numerous times this winter. We’re above normal for temperatures in March and we had 1 inch of snow. This winter we’ve had average or above average temperatures for every month except for one and have had 16 inches of snow, thus my skepticism. I believe you have said at least three times this season, this is a weather pattern you’ve never seen before, yet basically the entire forum is only near or even below average for snowfall. When you speak in hyperbole all the time and it doesn’t deliver.... Yet at the end of the day you don’t control the weather so I’m not sure why you get so ticked off when someone says they don’t believe it or you.

Btw, severe weather season hasn’t even started yet. It’s March 30th. And I’ve made no claims of an epic severe weather season.

Correction to the above: I said that 2x, once in late Jan for the Feb open and the other time was recently for the April open.  Mind you, I was born in '82, so since then, I have not seen a pattern as such since I've been diligently following the weather.  Maybe those older folks on here have, but not I, said the guy from the Chi!

 

As per the second bolded, I only hear your comments when I'm wrong or the models don't agree or go the other way when a call I make goes south.  On the flip side, I go out on a limb, take risks, trust my intuition, when making long range predictions which are often fairly accurate, esp when it comes to forecasting a storm track/date, etc.  I'm not asking for a "round of applause", I do it bc its fun, it's a challenge and I learn from my mistakes.  It amuses me how you are quick to judge a wrong prediction but when they are right they don't get the acknowledgement.   I don't need a cheering squad bc I have confidence in what I do and where I'm eventually going to take this knowledge in the future.  Happy Good Friday! 

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The fact that powdery snow in daylight in April is on the table is nothing short of impressive. Granted it's 10 day GFS, but still an eyegasm.

Heck ya, I wonder what the models would have looked like back in April '82 if they had the same technology we do now.

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Not a pretty outlook per recent trends via the CFSv2 this month....

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201804.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201804.gif

 

Why am I not in Florida already??? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:lol: Ofc will prolly happen cuz RAIN's here..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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ICON has been even more of a wet dream to us than GFS this year.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Good luck...

 

Meantime, 12z Euro farther south with the storm next Tue/Wed and hits IA/N IL/WI into MI with a significant snowstorm.

Can't believe this is still happening and looking past this it does not look any better. Love springtime here in Chicago

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Can't believe this is still happening and looking past this it does not look any better. Love springtime here in Chicago

Springs are hit or miss here. Some good and some bad. The last couple years haven’t been to pleasing. This Spring has really been pretty awful and this month doesn’t look pretty.

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Correction to the above: I said that 2x, once in late Jan for the Feb open and the other time was recently for the April open. Mind you, I was born in '82, so since then, I have not seen a pattern as such since I've been diligently following the weather. Maybe those older folks on here have, but not I, said the guy from the Chi!

 

As per the second bolded, I only hear your comments when I'm wrong or the models don't agree or go the other way when a call I make goes south. On the flip side, I go out on a limb, take risks, trust my intuition, when making long range predictions which are often fairly accurate, esp when it comes to forecasting a storm track/date, etc. I'm not asking for a "round of applause", I do it bc its fun, it's a challenge and I learn from my mistakes. It amuses me how you are quick to judge a wrong prediction but when they are right they don't get the acknowledgement. I don't need a cheering squad bc I have confidence in what I do and where I'm eventually going to take this knowledge in the future. Happy Good Friday!

Well said sir. Some haven't made a single prediction yet, since I've been on this forum. We all have a right to disagree but it's easy to criticize from a hiding place. That is all.
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So the models about a week ago had the right idea of bringing a White Easter for a number of our members, including some down south into MO/KS where snow has been non existent this season.  Go figure!

 

06z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018033106/045/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

 

06z NAM...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018033106/045/snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

00z GGEM...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018033100/048/snku_acc.us_c.png

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If the Euro is right, could MSP shatter all-time record lows for the month of April???  Sheesh, -10's sub zero lows on Sat morning as our friend from the north, Mr. Polar Vortex is likely to pay a visit.  Just incredible to even see maps like these in early April.  

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In all honesty, I've never seen an April run via the CFSv2 this cold for so much of the nation east of the Rockies...history re-written???  The writing is on the wall that there will be episodes of historic periods/days this month.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20180331.201804.gif

 

Hey, look at the bright side, at least there will be plentiful precip...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20180331.201804.gif

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