Jump to content

April 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Let's green this place up a bit!

 

No kidding! This was a year ago down my way..

 

SMI 4-18-17.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All readings are for Grand Rapids, MI

Will we see our first 70° next week? Over the last 40 years the average first 70° is March 30th In the time there have only been 3 years when the first 70° day came after April 20th (today’s date) they are 4/27/2013 when the high reached 71° and the next 3 days came in at 64°,73° and 78° in 1984 the first date was not until 4/26 when the high reach 83° with highs reaching 78 and 70 after that. And in 1993 when the first date was April 24th when the high reach 73° a reading of 71 came a few days later. Going back further for 70 years the average first 70° day is April 2nd  Since 1948 the years that did not reach 70 on or before April 20th are 1. 1950 May 3rd 2. 1951 April 30th 3. 1970 April 25th 4. 1975 April 29th 5. 1984 April 26th 6. 1993 April 24th 7. 2013 April 27th so in the last 70 years there have only been 7 Aprils that did not reach 70° or more by today. Note that May 3rd 1950 is the latest first 70° day in Grand Rapids history. The last time it has been 70 or better here in Grand Rapids was October 22 last year.

 

Sad. How did GR miss hitting 70F on the 12th  :huh:  Marshall hit 73F that afternoon.  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, that was quick, today's 12z ensemble guidance is deciding to put a quick end to the warm up by Thu of next week near the MW/GL's region.  I was just outside for 2 hours soaking up the sunshine without any breezes and it felt amazing.  The wind off the lake was blocked my house while I was in the back yard.  The grass is certainly starting to green pretty quick actually.   I really think this will be a slow "step ladder" run up into summer.  Any sudden summer patterns should fair better out in the Plains as we roll into May.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

According to the euro, looks like May should be cool and wet also. Still a lot of bare trees around here also. Unusual for sure.

That's really odd to hear you still have bare trees in your neck of the woods.  Over here, 100% of the trees are still bare, although, during the "brief" 2-day warm spell (11th-12th) , trees did try to bud but then the cold snap came and hit them hard.  We're going to need a stretch of warm and sunny days and hopefully by early next week the process of growth can occur.  It's rather depressing having to look at "skeletons" throughout the neighborhood!  This is my first Spring in many years (6), where I have not gone to AZ yet.  Work and family stuff has kept me in Chicago but I'm hopeful to take a break very soon.  Experiencing this type of weather just validates why Spring's in the SW are a blessing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both EPS/GEFS are suggesting a stout -EPO pattern to close out April and open May.  Fits the LRC quite well, but is there a rebound during the Week 2 period?  I have been looking for a warm spell during the early part of May and the models are seeing it but primarily out in the Plains and not so much farther east.  Transient warm spells are in the cards across the MW/GL's with more consistent warmth out in the central/southern Plains.  

 

ecmwf_eps_epo_2018042100.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Beautiful, gorgeous weekend on tap. Temps in the 60s, if you can believe that. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hard to believe that my area came close to breaking a record low last night. My low was 25.9F. The record was 24F set back in 1981. Geez. Cold air still wants to hang tough around my area.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talked to a farmer at church this morning. Planting season is delayed waiting for soil temps to increase. Might be into May before they start but he hopes earlier. He said the longer you wait, there is always the chance of a very early frost in September to cause problems.

Shouldn't be a problem increasing considering we're fixing to consistently be in the 60s.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He said things had been progressing then the blizzard hit with frigid lows following. If we can stay away from lows in the 20’s and low 30’s things will be good.

If we repeat 1911 again, which is a top 3 analog for this year so far, they'd better be prepared to take some losses at harvest time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is an interesting study that was conducted during last years Canadian wildfire season. A lot of similarities in the wx pattern this season argue that we will see another bad fire season up north.

 

https://www.facebook.com/TomSkilling/posts/10156196556436760

I know it's weird but when they have wildfires up there and I sit under cool NW flow in the late summer, Oklahoma sunsets are incredible due to the smoke in the atmosphere.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's really odd to hear you still have bare trees in your neck of the woods. Over here, 100% of the trees are still bare, although, during the "brief" 2-day warm spell (11th-12th) , trees did try to bud but then the cold snap came and hit them hard. We're going to need a stretch of warm and sunny days and hopefully by early next week the process of growth can occur. It's rather depressing having to look at "skeletons" throughout the neighborhood! This is my first Spring in many years (6), where I have not gone to AZ yet. Work and family stuff has kept me in Chicago but I'm hopeful to take a break very soon. Experiencing this type of weather just validates why Spring's in the SW are a blessing.

It is crazy for Oklahoma. I still have brown patches of grass in my yard also. The latest "leaf-out" that I remember in my life would have to be 2013. We're way behind that now, which may be a huge clue that there will likely be more cold temp records set in May down here.

 

When it snowed May 3, 2013, there weren't any bare trees and the grass was fully green.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was down in Kansas City yesterday and one specific tree species had white flowers on it. Those are the only trees there that were doing anything. Still absolutely no progress here, although most of the grass is finally green there are some brown areas.

  • Like 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was down in Kansas City yesterday and one specific tree species had white flowers on it. Those are the only trees there that were doing anything. Still absolutely no progress here, although most of the grass is finally green there are some brown areas.

Those would be Dogwood trees. They bloomed in spite of the weather here and then when it froze again it made their blooms ugly. For about 2 weeks though, they looked like ghosts in the forests here. It was the first time I'd ever seen them bloom by themselves. I've always loved Dogwoods.

 

The last full weekend in April, the town 12 miles to my north celebrates what is known as the Dogwood festival. It's a pretty big deal here.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We've also overperformed the last couple days.  My tulips are only about two inches tall.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So glad to see the models holding onto the warm finish to the week and into the weekend!  We will likely see the best Spring weekend of 2018 this coming week for a lot of us on here.  The big ridge to develop across the central CONUS is directly related to the late Oct pattern (22nd-24th) which brought a strong storm system driving into the west coast and pumped a big ridge in the central states.  However, during this cycle we have to account for seasonal differences and I expect this system to take a more northerly track, similar to the track this system took in LRC cycle #2 between Dec 4th/5th that brought an Upper MW Blizzard.

 

00z EPS...

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_8.png

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_10.png

 

 

What happens after this system passes???  I think the EPS has the right idea and a more seasonably cooler pattern sets up post May 3rd while the GEFS are insisting a largely AN temp regime.  I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but doesn't it seem like every year the GEFS almost always seem way to warm during the Week 2 period in the late Spring/Summer months and to cold in the Autumn/Winter months???

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS continues to advertise extremely high CAPE levels early next week. However, there is too much capping and too weak shear Monday, and Tuesday the shear is god awful. High lapse rates on Monday MAY suggest a hail threat but any severe wx threats Tuesday should stay North of here per GFS.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS continues to advertise extremely high CAPE levels early next week. However, there is too much capping and too weak shear Monday, and Tuesday the shear is god awful. High lapse rates on Monday MAY suggest a hail threat but any severe wx threats Tuesday should stay North of here per GFS.

 

 

Gosh, this is really taking some getting used to in terms of paying attention to Illinois' weather rather than Nebraska's. Tomorrow will be my official last day in Lincoln, and I couldn't have asked for a better ending. Temps near 70, and absolutely beautiful. Going to be really tough on me leaving here, really had some awesome times. Regardless, I'm hoping severe wx season gets started here soon, because this is insane how slow it's been so far! 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gosh, this is really taking some getting used to in terms of paying attention to Illinois' weather rather than Nebraska's. Tomorrow will be my official last day in Lincoln, and I couldn't have asked for a better ending. Temps near 70, and absolutely beautiful. Going to be really tough on me leaving here, really had some awesome times. Regardless, I'm hoping severe wx season gets started here soon, because this is insane how slow it's been so far! 

I'll miss having you here! Enjoy getting every storm that we don't get.

  • Like 2

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While not officially at the airport yet. I now have 70° here at my house. The last time GRR had a 70° or better reading was on October 22, 2017. That is 184 days so it has been 6 months since the last official 70° or better day here in Grand Rapids. The seasonal snow fall here at Grand Rapids is now at 77.7" that should be the seasonal total

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

MPX tweeting that 2” soil temp is already at 54F.....a little more than one week after an 18” snowfall on top of frozen ground. I was noticing yesterday how soft the ground felt. I didn’t think the soil temp was that warm already though. Pretty remarkable.

Any snow left up by you or is it completely gone? Neighbor next to me up in Eagle River said still a few inches but was melting very quickly. Guess is was close to 60 up there over the weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...