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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Any snow left up by you or is it completely gone? Neighbor next to me up in Eagle River said still a few inches but was melting very quickly. Guess is was close to 60 up there over the weekend.

All that’s left of the snow are the dirty piles on the side of the driveway. Still about a foot deep in spots. Otherwise nothing in my yard. Temp hit 64 yesterday and 68 today. Crazy turnaround.

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Oh my, this weekend into the early part of next week looks fantastic...summer tease around the corner.  The trees need to start greening up around here quick bc the bare trees are getting pretty old.  Nonetheless, looking forward to next weeks back to back 70's.

 

DbikKxYWkAAk62Y.jpg

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I'm not buying into the major warmth the GFS/GEFS are advertising Week 1-2...the EPS has the right idea knowing where we will be heading according to the LRC.  Seasonably cool should be expected as the "cold" part of the LRC sets up.  Watch for the Vortex to take shape near Hudson Bay.  As we get deeper into the warm season, troughs are less amplified but still effect the overall pattern.  I'd imagine we will see plenty of chilly HP's in the marry month of May.

 

 

DbitcrMUQAEE02_.jpg

 

 

vs EPS....

 

DbitcrNVQAM7cNs.jpg

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The temperature reached 74° here in Grand Rapids yesterday (75° at my house) The grass this morning is noticeably greener then it has been.  And my daffodils are now in full bloom but the tulips still have a long way to go yet but warmer temperatures and any rain will push them along. As for the trees well there are buds on them but it will be into May before we see any sign of leaves on the trees this year. That has been the tread over a large part of the Great Lakes and Midwest this year. This spring has reminded me of the years I lived in Alpena more so then the time I have lived in Grand Rapids.

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I'm not buying into the major warmth the GFS/GEFS are advertising Week 1-2...the EPS has the right idea knowing where we will be heading according to the LRC.  Seasonably cool should be expected as the "cold" part of the LRC sets up.  Watch for the Vortex to take shape near Hudson Bay.  As we get deeper into the warm season, troughs are less amplified but still effect the overall pattern.  I'd imagine we will see plenty of chilly HP's in the marry month of May.

 

 

DbitcrMUQAEE02_.jpg

 

 

vs EPS....

 

DbitcrNVQAM7cNs.jpg

 

Sheesh, just a "slight" difference, eh??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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While not officially at the airport yet. I now have 70° here at my house. The last time GRR had a 70° or better reading was on October 22, 2017. That is 184 days so it has been 6 months since the last official 70° or better day here in Grand Rapids. The seasonal snow fall here at Grand Rapids is now at 77.7" that should be the seasonal total

 

Did GRR officially tag 70F??  Marshall had a repeat of the 12th by tagging 73F and scoring a couple hrs in the 70's. A solid 40 deg's warmer than my high on the 9th

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Did GRR officially tag 70F??  Marshall had a repeat of the 12th by tagging 73F and scoring a couple hrs in the 70's. A solid 40 deg's warmer than my high on the 9th

yes, The official high reached 74° that is one of the latest dates for the first 70° in Grand Rapids in the last 70 years.

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Still bare trees around. Yesterdays low 70s for highs felt great. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Some bugs starting to come out. I saw one crawling on my kitchen window. :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The pattern to close out April and open May may finally put an end into the Tornado drought for KS/OK.  Strong signal this far out for the seasons largest severe wx threat across the central Plains into the Upper MW.

 

DbjU2AMX0AAzOkj.jpg

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I'm not buying into the major warmth the GFS/GEFS are advertising Week 1-2...the EPS has the right idea knowing where we will be heading according to the LRC. Seasonably cool should be expected as the "cold" part of the LRC sets up. Watch for the Vortex to take shape near Hudson Bay. As we get deeper into the warm season, troughs are less amplified but still effect the overall pattern. I'd imagine we will see plenty of chilly HP's in the marry month of May.

 

 

DbitcrMUQAEE02_.jpg

 

 

vs EPS....

 

DbitcrNVQAM7cNs.jpg

I think the next 14 days finish above average as the above average days will have a larger departure than the below average days..
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GFS is warm for the eastern half of the country through the first week of May. 

 

Was going to say.."don't look at the Euro Ens" Yikes!

 

I think the next 14 days finish above average as the above average days will have a larger departure than the below average days..

 

Hope that plan extends farther east as well?? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I think the next 14 days finish above average as the above average days will have a larger departure than the below average days..

I hope so, but not so certain it will average that much AN over the next 2 weeks.  You may fair better than my local.

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Looks like another sunny weekend on tap, although, Saturday might start off cloudy, but mainly dry. Clouds should depart hopefully as the late afternoon hours wears on. Sunday looks gorgeous.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Really nice batch of rain coming through Nebraska from about I-80 and south. I am under a heavy cell right now. 42 degrees with a wind chill of 34 and raining. Supposed to be in the 70's this weekend.

I'm excited for this rain. Let's get the grass moist. This has thankfully not been too bad of a fire season, only high profile fire here has been the Council Bluffs fire.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I'm excited for this rain. Let's get the grass moist. This has thankfully not been too bad of a fire season, only high profile fire here has been the Council Bluffs fire.

It is now heavy rain here.  Closing in on 1 inch according to NWS storm total radar (we will see when actual reports occur).  IMO, this is overperforming according to how much we were predicted by local forecasters.  

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It's a fantastic 75 degrees over here.  We have been overperforming most days, recently.  We really could use a nice storm with a heavy, cleansing rain totaling an inch.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Nope! @IllinoisWx isn't going to like living next to the chilly Lake Michigan next month. Its actually running rather chilly for the time of year.

 

Lol very true, not a fan of that! I need me some 80s on the lake so i can go running and not hate my life. Chicago needs to heat up D****T!

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It’s a nice sunny morning with a current temperature of 45° here at my house. The grass has mostly greened up now and with the warmer temperatures and any rain we get will get the grass growing in full swing. May sometimes is the cut the grass two or more times a week time of year.  That is if we get the needed rain. It looks like the start of May will be mild with a chance of thunderstorms by middle of next week

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I think it is safe to say that in southern lower Michigan the snow season is now over. And here are the totals as of April 25th with the 30 year average in ( )

Grand Rapids 77.9” (ave 74.9”) Muskegon 105.3” (ave 93.7”) Flint 85.3” (ave 47.3”) Detroit 61.0” (ave 42.4”) Lansing 53.3” (ave 51.0”) Saginaw 41.4” (ave 41.5”)  Off to the north there still could be some more snow fall but it is becoming less likely and this should be the seasonal total for most locations. Again with the average for the season

Alpena 82.5” (ave 84.3”) Houghton Lake 55.8” (ave 66.6”) Sault Ste Marie 127.8” (ave 120.4”) Traverse City 123.4” (ave 101.4”) Gaylord 140.7” (ave 141.4”) Petoskey 141.7” (ave 122.8”) and Marquette 175.2” (ave 200.7”)

Most locations in Michigan received above average snow fall for the 2017/18 winter season.

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Cloudy and dreary outside w temps @ 46F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I really think we get out of this abysmal pattern as we flip into the early part of May.  The LRC suggests a warming trend after the first few opening days of the month and recent runs of the CFSv2 are trying to hint at that.

 

cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2018040900

 

 

It may strengthen as we get into the middle part of the month but I'm not jumping on it, esp if there is still a lot of blocking around.

 

cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2018040900

Not a bad call, early part of May we Spring into action...I never doubt how valuable the LRC can be...

 

Edit: I was off by a couple days as the warmth came in sooner than expected.

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My first possible thunderstorm activity by early next week. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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