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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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0Z NAM models seem to have shifted the best area down into KS. 3km NAM has several rotating cells but down in Kansas. The other CAMS have some monster cells, but again down in Kansas. I think I am going to head a bit further south into Kansas. It'll be interesting to see what the HRRR says when it gets into range.

The 00z NAM sucked across the board. Like it literally has no redeeming qualities. Currently thinking TP/WF in NC KS is probably gonna be the best play, with perhaps a few dryline storms, where all of the CAMs initiate a few supercells. Another area that bears watching would be SW OK near Altus where the 3km NAM has been extremely consistent on a dryline bulge which would elongate hodographs due to increased directional shear. However, initiation is extremely conditional in this area and may not happen at all, but there might be a surprise or two down there if CI occurs. Given relatively widespread 0-1km SRH profiles in the vicinity of 200 m2s2, I could see a decent sized 10% hatched and maybe, just maybe a 15% in NC KS if you really wanna be an optimist where 0-1km SRH is generally towards 300 m2s2 with eSRH approaching 400 m2s2 in spots. Thinking tomorrow will end up being superior to Wednesday, which has a lot of caveats if you ask me.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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It is now official April 2018 was the 4th coldest in Grand Rapids history. At Muskegon it was the 2nd coldest April in history.  It also was the coldest April since 1975 so to many of you it was the coldest April in your lifetime!

 2018 is now the coldest April in recorded history at Flint Michigan. Flints mean this April was 39.1° the old record coldest April was 39.4° in 1950. It was the 2nd coldest April at Saginaw and while it was down the list at 13th in Detroit it was none the less the coldest there since 1950.

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It is now official April 2018 was the 4th coldest in Grand Rapids history. At Muskegon it was the 2nd coldest April in history.  It also was the coldest April since 1975 so to many of you it was the coldest April in your lifetime!

 2018 is now the coldest April in recorded history at Flint Michigan. Flints mean this April was 39.1° the old record coldest April was 39.4° in 1950. It was the 2nd coldest April at Saginaw and while it was down the list at 13th in Detroit it was none the less the coldest there since 1950.

 

Per a poster in Jackson for comparisons:

 

"April ends here with a -7.0 departure. That is a larger departure than the +5.3 last April. Remarkably enough yesterday's 72 degree official high at JXN still ranked yesterday -2 departure thanks to the 29 degree overnight low. Just 6 days were above normal in April and of course we had legit snow squalls and a legit winter storm with tons of snow and sleet to the north with an ice storm south of a Lansing to Grand Rapids to Pontiac line and on April 15th no less so at the half way point of the month puts it more into the rare air category."

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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