April 2018 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco talking about a very strong storm next weekend. Strange that they talk about something so far in the future.

 

The pattern becomes active once again toward late next week as

another deep trough and strong storm system approaches from the

west. Models disagree on timing and placement /not surprising for

day 7/ but pattern recognition and ensembles suggest there could be

strong thunderstorms in the warm sector and yet another Spring

snowfall on the backside of the system, somewhere in the region.

Something we'll be keeping an eye on over the next several days.

[Tom]

Outstanding cold this morning across ND with current temps single digits below zero!  Ouch!  #Apriluary

 

Last night's 00z Euro took a big step back with the warm up next week around the MW/GL's as blocking turned out to be stronger.  Sign of the times?  Warmth is going to be hard to come by if the blocking continues to be this strong for the rest of this month. 

[Minny_Weather]

If it snows measurably in Omaha Sunday I'll personally deliver you $5.

I guess I don't have to do this.

[Tom]

Trends are in favor for another MN snowstorm for late next week.  Big shifts south in both the EPS/GEFS of the systems storm track.  Check out the last 2 runs per the EPS...stronger Hudson Bay block bodes well for another snowstorm.  Let's smash some records!

[Tom]

It would be hard to imagine not to reach 70F at least once this month in Chicago.  We didn't reach 60F last month, if we don't hit 70F this month, I think a Spring of '13 will be a very close match in recent years, esp given how cold April will end up being.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Departures thus far for the first 4 days of April...I heard Chicago will average nearly 20F BN during the first week of this month....LRC has been a great tool predicting this historic open to April.

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

So the Sunday system is crapping out and now the big warmup is crapping out, too.  Ugh.

 

The euro ensemble mean had risen to 70 for a couple days, followed by permanent mid 50s to low 60s.  Now, it peaks at low 60s for a couple days, then falls back into crappy 40s to low 50s, with more snow possible.  The op run even has us falling back into the 30s.  I may not be able to get my plants started this month if things don't change.

[westMJim]

The temperatures here are for Grand Rapids, MI

Here are some interesting facts as to just how cold this April has started. For the at least the first 6 days (and maybe more) the warmest it will be is just 43° and the departure is now at -11.5° going back to 1950 Here are some past cold April’s 1950, 1953, 1956, 1961, 1971, 1972,1975, 1982, 1996, 2000, 2013 Of all of those April’s only two did not have highs in the 70’s (1950 67° and 1961 68°) the rest had highs in the 70’s ranging from 78° in 2013 and 1956 to 72° in 1953.  This April has yet to have a 50° day and none are expected until late next week, All of the above cold Aprils had highs in the 50’s and 60’s before than except 1975 where that did not happen until the 13^th

[St Paul Storm]

Currently 15F and feels like -4 with a nasty wind. Forecasted high is 21 which would be the all-time coldest high in April.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy here in nyc w spotty rain and some chilly air still around. Some snow may mix in but temps reaching the upper 50s for a bit b4 dropping off into the 30s tonight. No accumulations are expected tonight, but NW can expect some minor accumulations. Tomorrow, sunshine returns.

 

Easter preparations are beginning ya'll.

[St Paul Storm]

Current wind chills. Hello January!

[Tom]

Current wind chills. Hello January!

I heard there are reports of some lakes with 30” of ice in N MN. That’s just crazy to even fathom ice is getting thicker in early April.

[St Paul Storm]

I heard there are reports of some lakes with 30” of ice in N MN. That’s just crazy to even fathom ice is getting thicker in early April.

I had about 2 feet of open water along the shoreline about 3 weeks ago. It’s now completely covered again. Last year the ice was gone on March 23. This year there’s still 23” in spots. I might be able to swim by late June. Ugh.

[Tom]

Who will be that lucky person on Friday the 13th to cash in on Snow? Summer warmth? What a powerhouse storm potential on the table. This pattern is jacked! Craziest moment in time to be alive and be able to witness some of the most extreme weather in history this month.

[Money]

SPS could be in a good spot for that one

[CentralNebWeather]

Who will be that lucky person on Friday the 13th to cash in on Snow? Summer warmth? What a powerhouse storm potential on the table. This pattern is jacked! Craziest moment in time to be alive and be able to witness some of the most extreme weather in history this month.

That is one wound up system.  

[St Paul Storm]

975mb in the Dakotas on the 12z GFS. Would be mostly rain here on the 13th but wowzers what a storm.

[Hawkeye]

I hope the GFS scenario is correct.  To get a couple days of warmth, we need the low to sweep northeastward to our nw.  If it slows and occludes to the west, like last night's euro suggested, the warm sector never gets up here and we're stuck with a stiff east wind off the cold lakes.

[Tom]

Looking out into the extended, the 11th-18th of this month is likely to be the best period of squeezing out any chance of warmth, moreso out into the Plains states.  It's sad to say, but the strength of the -NAO pattern will put a wrench into any sustained warmth once we get past the 18th.  I think another major shot of cold is coming post 15th-18th period.  I'm looking for a large system around the last week of the month, potentially a large scale Spring storm, that will likely kick start another BN regime to close out the month and open May.  Overall, the colder pattern will rule until we can break out of this sometime in May???

[Tom]

12z Euro already showing early signs in its run today that there is more blocking in place by mid next week.  I think MSP is in for a good run.

[Hawkeye]

12z euro now has significant icing from SD through southern MN/northern IA into Wisconsin.  So much for the 70-80 degrees it was showing a few runs ago.  

 

[Money]

12z euro now has significant icing from SD through southern MN/northern IA into Wisconsin. So much for the 70-80 degrees it was showing a few runs ago.

997 L in NW MO at hr 192

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018040612&fh=192

[Tom]

12z euro now has significant icing from SD through southern MN/northern IA into Wisconsin.  So much for the 70-80 degrees it was showing a few runs ago.  

Mid 30's and an strong easterly wind off the lake here in Chi...yuck!

[Tom]

A major Dakotas into MN/WI on tap...#winterrollson

[Hawkeye]

The euro does have one good day on Wednesday, with highs in the 60s in eastern Iowa, but then this happens.

 

[Tom]

Take a look at this Day 9 map off of the 12z Euro run today...central Canadian ridge is going to mean business over the next several weeks...

 

 

 

Now look at this CFSv2 map for May....similarities????  Blocking is going to do wonders next month....

 

[Money]

GEM looks a lot like the euro

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018040612&fh=180

 

Blocking just stalls and keeps it south

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=asnow24&runtime=2018040612&fh=198

[james1976]

There's more to talk about withthe current pattern then there was all Winter. Lol

[jaster220]

Departures thus far for the first 4 days of April...I heard Chicago will average nearly 20F BN during the first week of this month....LRC has been a great tool predicting this historic open to April.

 

 

 

 

Normal high temp is now 56F for Marshall. Another 2012 Morch-balancing weekend in store here, but at least it looks sunny and gee-no bugs! (thumbs up)

 

[jaster220]

12z euro now has significant icing from SD through southern MN/northern IA into Wisconsin.  So much for the 70-80 degrees it was showing a few runs ago.  

 

ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_180.png

 

Smile, you've just been Euro'd..

[St Paul Storm]

21F and feels like 6. Working from home today and the furnace is basically running nonstop. April heating bill is on pace to suck.

[jaster220]

So, this week's storm made for an eye-catching snow cover map that illustrates nicely the traditional dividing line between SMI wx zone, and NMI wx zone. Way back in the 80's it was very much more common for systems to deliver this gradient splitting the Mitt. It continued into the 90's (see Nov '95 for one example) but has been mostly MIA for the past 2 decades. Just thought it was cool looking map. So many winters when there's little to no snow OTG downstate, you just have to drive north of that line and BAM! #winterfound

 

[jaster220]

21F and feels like 6. Working from home today and the furnace is basically running nonstop. April heating bill is on pace to suck.

 

Even down here in the Banana belt, it's dropped to 29F with 

 

Wind Speed NW 16 G 29 mph

 

resulting in a WC of 17º   

[jaster220]

 CPC with a new and novel way to depict "heavy mixed bag O' crap" 

 

[westMJim]

I did not have to work today as to nights baseball game was postponed and it is a good thing as Grand Rapids is Getting off and on moderate to heavy snow showers temperature at 30°

[Hawkeye]

The strong cold advection and falling snow has kept far sw and sc Iowa in the low 20s this afternoon.  That's quite extreme at this point in the season.

[Minny_Weather]

We have officially held the snowcover. Now let's set a record. 20.8*F. Should plummet as winds die down.

[hlcater]

Boom

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040700/162/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

[Minny_Weather]

Boom

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040700/162/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

I've missed that look.

[gabel23]

Boom

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040700/162/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

 

I've missed that look.

If this comes out as being shown, we will no doubt see our first significant severe weather outbreak somewhere close to us. This thermal look screams something significant!