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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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If this comes out as being shown, we will no doubt see our first significant severe weather outbreak somewhere close to us. This thermal look screams something significant!

The location of the SLP would indicate a dry line between North Platte and Kearney, so any supercell type stuff would probably be in the tri-cities area. Feels nice to be talking like this again after a nonexistent fall severe wx wise.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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BRRR!! Cold and windy day. Probably a wind chill record for April today.

attachicon.gifcurrent.TAIR.grad(2).png

attachicon.gifcurrent.TAPP.grad.png

The "Blue Norther" decides to make an ill-timed visit in early April!  I find it incredible how warm it got yesterday across parts of N TX and within hours some spots were in the low 30's from the low/mid 80's!  Crazy drop in temps.

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My home thermometer is at 9.2 degrees as of 6:25 AM. Crazy record cold for April 7th

Do you have mostly bare ground?  I'm not kidding, I just had a dejavu episode and recall a day this year back in Dec or sometime when you had temps this cold with no snow OTG.

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If the Euro/GFS are right, the Dakotas region will maintain their snow pack by next weekend.  Heck, I think some parts of the region have a shot to keep it through the end of the month!  With an additional 1-2' of new snow by next weekend and an active pattern into the following week, winter will continue into the foreseeable future up there.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Upper_Midwest/nsm_depth/201804/nsm_depth_2018040705_Upper_Midwest.jpg

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The "Blue Norther" decides to make an ill-time visit in early April! I find it incredible how warm it got yesterday across parts of N TX and within hours some spots were in the low 30's from the low/mid 80's! Crazy drop in temps.

It really sucks though. One of my favorite winter patterns of all....in April. Just why man WHY!!!! Lol.

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With just enough snow to cover the ground the low here at my house dropped down to a bone chilling 14° at the airport where I do not know if there is a snow cover or not the low was just 21° to the north of town where there is a good snow cover the lows were 14° at Fremont,  13 at Big Rapids,9 at Cadillac. The record low for this date is the all time April record low of +3 set in 1982. The seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids is now at 74.7" the official 30 average as of this date is 73.9" 
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I didn't wake up in time to see the minimum temperature. Oh well. Snow goes away today, and the upward climb to spring begins. Thinking this is the last time till Fall I'll be posting a temperature in the teens to here. 16.9°F.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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While taking my morning walk, I saw robins and rabbits lying still in the sunshine, trying desperately to soak what heat energy they could from the sun, steam coming out of vents from working furnaces, a biting northerly wind and a temp of 22F...a typical January day folks, this is just stupid cold.

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I'm not liking the look of the GFS for much of big chance for severe weather at this point.

This thing is so wound up, that you actually end up with a very narrow warm, moist sector, with the dry line surging way out from the surface low. You also have almost unidirectional flow from the surface on up where you have any kind of CAPE. Lapse rates are poor. There is substantial speed shear, but I normally like to see more directional shear. Such a strong system early in the spring can make up for some of these things that are lacking, but this doesn't scream outbreak to me.

Storm motions are 60+ mph!

Best chance of tornadoes in this setup would be to the east of the surface low in southwest Minnesota, but those would probably be brief again with the narrow sector.

Euro at this point is more promising, but even that has trended the way of the GFS.

0Z surface.png

0Z dews.png

0Z CAPE.png

0Z EHI.png

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As of Friday morning, there still was a lot of snow cover over the UP and into northern lower Michigan. Here is some of the snow depths. In the UP  Painesdale 38”,Grand Marais35”, Munising, 33" Hancock and Kearsarge 27", Calumet, 24" Herman, 22" Watersmeet, Paulding and Ishpeming, 20" Marquette 19” Ironwood 19” Sault Ste. Marie 18” Rapid River 15” Michigamme 14” Iron Mountain 13” Garden Corners 12” Champion Gladstone 11” Manistique 9” Escanaba, Ontonagon, Norway 8” Wetmore 7” St Ignace 6” In norther lower Michigan East Jordan 12” Mancelona 11” Gaylord, Atlanta Rogers City 10” Grayling, Cadillac 9” Traverse City, Mio East Tawas 6” Behlah, Luzerne 4” West Branch, Big Rapids Harbor Springs 3” Gladwin, Alma 2” The snow in the UP will be around for some time yet. Maybe into May??? With spots into June.

Here are the web cams from Michigan Tech I will keep a eye on the Mount Ripley cam in years past there have been snow on the hill will into June. While it is a ski hill none the less it faces to the south.

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/

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As of Friday morning, there still was a lot of snow cover over the UP and into northern lower Michigan. Here is some of the snow depths. In the UP Painesdale 38”,Grand Marais35”, Munising, 33" Hancock and Kearsarge 27", Calumet, 24" Herman, 22" Watersmeet, Paulding and Ishpeming, 20" Marquette 19” Ironwood 19” Sault Ste. Marie 18” Rapid River 15” Michigamme 14” Iron Mountain 13” Garden Corners 12” Champion Gladstone 11” Manistique 9” Escanaba, Ontonagon, Norway 8” Wetmore 7” St Ignace 6” In norther lower Michigan East Jordan 12” Mancelona 11” Gaylord, Atlanta Rogers City 10” Grayling, Cadillac 9” Traverse City, Mio East Tawas 6” Behlah, Luzerne 4” West Branch, Big Rapids Harbor Springs 3” Gladwin, Alma 2” The snow in the UP will be around for some time yet. Maybe into May??? With spots into June.

Here are the web cams from Michigan Tech I will keep a eye on the Mount Ripley cam in years past there have been snow on the hill will into June. While it is a ski hill none the less it faces to the south.

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/

Still looks like the dead of winter! Ice rinks and ski hills open with a ton of snow OTG in and around town. Pretty memorable stuff right there.

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Hadn't looked at last night's Euro until now, but it shows better potential to me than the GFS.

 

CAPE is WAY better:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/cape-surface/20180414-0000z.html

 

warm front draped from south of S. City to Des Moines

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/windspeed-barbs/20180414-0000z.html

 

Dews:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/dewpoint-f/20180414-0000z.html

 

low level shear is IMPRESSIVE north of the warm front:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/low-level-shear/20180414-0000z.html

 

majority of storms are along and north of the warm front, so as long as those aren't elevated, you have a good chance of tornadoes. Note the warm sector is pretty dry though, but 25-30 kts of low level shear is still decent.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/base-reflectivity/20180414-0000z.html

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At WMIJim

 

I've seen pictures from May of 1907 when the Copper region had full ground cover. Not sure if this spring can rival that one, but it may get close as you've mentioned. Craziness.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Still looks like the dead of winter! Ice rinks and ski hills open with a ton of snow OTG in and around town. Pretty memorable stuff right there.

When I lived in the Northland, spring was my fave time for latching on the boards! After the sledding trails were done, there was still decent snow on the slopes. Plus, it was often comfortable unlike the bitter winds of winter months. I remember March of '03 skiing in sunny and 65F with bugs zipping past

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hadn't looked at last night's Euro until now, but it shows better potential to me than the GFS.

 

CAPE is WAY better:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/cape-surface/20180414-0000z.html

 

warm front draped from south of S. City to Des Moines

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/windspeed-barbs/20180414-0000z.html

 

Dews:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/dewpoint-f/20180414-0000z.html

 

low level shear is IMPRESSIVE north of the warm front:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/low-level-shear/20180414-0000z.html

 

majority of storms are along and north of the warm front, so as long as those aren't elevated, you have a good chance of tornadoes. Note the warm sector is pretty dry though, but 25-30 kts of low level shear is still decent.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/iowa/base-reflectivity/20180414-0000z.html

Euro always paints an optimal scenario from this range, only to see it erode as the date approaches. We need to get back to a time when storms actually got more impressive as we closed in on zero hour. That's a lot more fun for us weather geeks!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Currently a cold, cloudy day here in nyc. Temp @37F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently no severe weather. Hopefully, we get some of that later in the month, wtf. It feels like early March. :wacko:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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When local mets talk about April snows, this one is the king.  In addition to the widespread 12-19" of snow, the wind gusted to 70 mph.  Cedar Rapids recorded 14.5".  There may have been a bit more here on the west side.  This was a year before I was born.  I don't think any storm, at any time of year, has dropped more snow on CR since then.

DaMA5hPX0AA23b5.jpg

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12.2F IMBY this AM. Coldest April temp I have reported since 2003. Airport was a rather warm 17F compared to other cold mornings. record was 16F- (2007) so no record for DSM.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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When local mets talk about April snows, this one is the king.  In addition to the widespread 12-19" of snow, the wind gusted to 70 mph.  Cedar Rapids recorded 14.5".  There may have been a bit more here on the west side.  This was a year before I was born.  I don't think any storm, at any time of year, has dropped more snow on CR since then.

DaMA5hPX0AA23b5.jpg

Nice! And just 3 wks after the St. Patty's Day storm shut down much of SMI. Those 70's rocked here in the Midwest

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Even though DSM has not broken a daily record for cold this April- it has ( 5 )  for most min temps below 20F at 5 days. The previous record was 3 in 1936 and 4 in 1881.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It's nice to see the euro has come back north somewhat with the big storm late next week following that one awful run that kept us stuck in the 30s with a wind off the lakes.  Wednesday looks like a real winner on all the models, then we could get a couple more days in the 60s to low 70s if the low tracks far enough north.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Nice! And just 3 wks after the St. Patty's Day storm shut down much of SMI. Those 70's rocked here in the Midwest

While not as much here in west Michigan in that April 1973 storm between 4 to 8" fell. To the north 6 to 9" fell and on the east side of the state around 3" fell. There was also a big April snow storm in 1975 and April 1982 was cold with a lot of snow as well. So far this April is running colder than  April 1973 and just about as cold as 1975.

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The 12z euro ensemble mean shows a nice improvement here next Thursday and Friday.  Most of the members have shifted strongly toward warmth compared to the previous couple runs.

 

KCID_2018040712_forecast_EPS_360.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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When local mets talk about April snows, this one is the king. In addition to the widespread 12-19" of snow, the wind gusted to 70 mph. Cedar Rapids recorded 14.5". There may have been a bit more here on the west side. This was a year before I was born. I don't think any storm, at any time of year, has dropped more snow on CR since then.

DaMA5hPX0AA23b5.jpg

This is a photo from Cedar Rapids from that storm almost 45 years ago. It was certainly one very powerful winter storm.

9773F357-90EC-43B7-B6D0-1AD2BECC6BCE.jpeg

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Whoa....its cold outside man. Standing outside was nippy indeed. Church inside was packed, so others had to stand outside. Temp currently holding around 32F. Luckily, no wind, so no wcf to speak of. It will be a sunny day tomorrow, so Easter day will be dry at least for any festivities. 

 

Happy Easter to all Greek Orthodox. Enjoy!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Woah, these low temps likely smash all-time record lows for Wisco!

 

Current conditions at Rhinelander, Rhinelander-Oneida County Airport (KRHI)Lat: 45.63°NLon: 89.48°WElev: 1624ft.
nsct.png

Fair

-2°F

-19°C

 

 

 

 

Current conditions at Land O' Lakes, Kings Land O' Lakes Airport (KLNL)Lat: 46.15°NLon: 89.21°WElev: 1706ft.
nsct.png

Fair

-11°F

-24°C

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One of the local mets is going with back to back 70's on Thu/Fri which is rather bold but on Friday we have a shot at reaching 70.  It's going to be tough, all gonna depend on how much sunshine we get out ahead of the powerful Spring storm cutting to our NW.  Gosh, can you imagine what that is going to feel like with DP's into the upper 50's???  #LuckyFriday

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In the midst of this historic stretch of cold, several MLB games during this opening week of baseball have either seen snow or have been postponed due to the cold, yesterday's Twin's game set a record for the coldest first pitch...

 

 

 

First pitch temperature officially at 27 degrees with 12 mph winds in Minneapolis. It's coldest start time for any game in Twins history, as well as Mariners. #brrrrr

 

Some more tidbits...

 

 

 Ryan Maue | weather.us Retweeted

We have tied the coldest first week of April (1899) with an average temperature of 33.1 degrees. That would be normal for the week February 11th-17th!! #happyvalentinesday????

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Overall, the central Plains look dry during the upcoming 10 days...until we get past the 18th or so, I'm not expecting much precip...however, I am anticipating the continuation of slow moving storm systems coming out of the Rockiest after the following weekends strong storm as the blocking across Canada will be impactful and continue for a couple weeks.  

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_4.png

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_40.png

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