April 2018 Observations and Discussion

[St Paul Storm]

It’s a balmy 17F this morning.. Skies are clouding over now as the snow moves in later today. 1-2” expected. Another game potentially postponed due to snow? We’ll see.

[Tom]

North American snowcover extent popping and setting up a stretch of new decadal highs this month...

 

 

 

If the CFSv2 weeklies are right, major cold shot should be "fitting" for the last week of the month...fits the LRC pattern, could there be a late spring Blizzard in the central CONUS somewhere???  I know its far fetched, but it might not be given the stretch of cold we are seeing, as there is a storm in this cycling pattern that would suggest a large scaled system during the last week of the month.

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

[Hawkeye]

One of the local mets is going with back to back 70's on Thu/Fri which is rather bold but on Friday we have a shot at reaching 70.  It's going to be tough, all gonna depend on how much sunshine we get out ahead of the powerful Spring storm cutting to our NW.  Gosh, can you imagine what that is going to feel like with DP's into the upper 50's???  #LuckyFriday

 

The 00z euro has dews in the low 60s here on Friday, with a morning low temp of 60!  That will feel amazing.  While models have been trying to figure out the low track and placement of the warm front, the qpf has been all over the place as well.  Now that the warmth is winning out, it has also really dried out, too.  Much of the rain should be north of the low and front.

 

Unfortunately, last evening I began experiencing the first symptoms of another dang cold.  I'll be po'd if I end up being miserable during the first warmth of the season.

[Tom]

The 00z euro has dews in the low 60s here on Friday, with a morning low temp of 60!  That will feel amazing.  While models have been trying to figure out the low track and placement of the warm front, the qpf has been all over the place as well.  Now that the warmth is winning out, it has also really dried out, too.  Much of the rain should be north of the low and front.

 

Unfortunately, last evening I began experiencing the first symptoms of another dang cold.  I'll be po'd if I end up being miserable during the first warmth of the season.

Crush some garlic cloves and chug it down with some milk, but not on an empty stomach.  Works wonders, esp if done early on when symptoms are being experienced.  I heard there is another surge of the cold bug but not as bad as it was earlier this cold season.  Get better buddy!

[Tom]

Several long range climate models come out this week with their seasonal forecasts (NMME, JAMSTEC, JMA and I think the IRI).  Should be interesting to see if the trends for a wetter/cooler summer is in store for parts of the Plains that have been extremely dry and also if the warming of the central PAC (ENSO neutral conditions) and NE PAC continues to evolve over the summer months.

[westMJim]

 Here at my house I had a low of 13° overnight, The official low at GRR last night looks to be 16 While the record low for this date is +7 set in 1982 todays low of 16 is only the 4^th time it has gotten this cold this late in April in Grand Rapids in the last 120 years the other times are that +7° on April 8^th 1982, 14° on April 11^th 1973, 15° on April 10^th 1989 and 16° on April 8^th 1972.  If my low of 13° would be official (it is not) then that would be tied for the 4^th coldest night in Grand Rapids history. So this is just about as cold as it has ever gotten in April 8,

[OKwx2k4]

Crazy opening 7 days of April. If the numbers went further south, I'd have a 1 over me also. That's an April opener that won't likely be forgotten soon around here.

[Tom]

Here comes the summer-like heat that has been long awaited across the TX Panhandle into KS...the 11th begins the stretch of warmer weather in this part of the sub.  

 

[Hawkeye]

While in town we only dropped to 20, the CR airport hit 15, another record.

 

Tom, thanks for the garlic/milk tip.  I had never heard of that, but I went ahead and tried it.  I really hate colds.  I went several years without getting a single cold, but this would be two already this year, despite the fact I'm a big hand washer.

[Tom]

While in town we only dropped to 20, the CR airport hit 15, another record.

 

Tom, thanks for the garlic/milk tip. I had never heard of that, but I went ahead and tried it. I really hate colds. I went several years without getting a single cold, but this would be two already this year.

Anytime...it’s a bit nasty, but it works. Take it again before bedtime and you may wake up sweating. That’s a good thing, it means, the bug is out!

[NEJeremy]

[St Paul Storm]

It’s a balmy 17F this morning.. Skies are clouding over now as the snow moves in later today. 1-2” expected. Another game potentially postponed due to snow? We’ll see.

Add another game to the list. Twins decided to postpone today’s game due to snow. Probable a wise decision. I’m guessing no one wanted to play after yesterday’s frozen fiasco.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and Canadian have gone much quicker with the late-week system, bringing it through here first thing Friday morning.  That would screw our warm Friday.  However, the UK is still much slower and the euro just came in 12 hours slower as well.

 

Here's what the euro has for Friday in Iowa.  

 

[hlcater]

I need the euro to verify for my sanity.

[Minny_Weather]

Lol @ Euro giving us 2" of snow next weekend. Not too late for middle fingers I guess.

[St Paul Storm]

The GFS and Canadian have gone much quicker with the late-week system, bringing it through here first thing Friday morning.  That would screw our warm Friday.  However, the UK is still much slower and the euro just came in 12 hours slower as well.

 

Here's what the euro has for Friday in Iowa.  

 

ecmwf_t2max_iowa_132.png

That’s just a cruel, cruel joke.

[james1976]

​DMX talking possible 70s Friday BUT THEN potentially "snowy Saturday and Saturday night" with the strong CAA and wraparound precip. Crazy!

[CentralNebWeather]

8 degrees yesterday morning with snow on the ground. Right now 63 degrees. Just got done mowing the yard. Forecasts say 80 on Thursday. Very few places on earth can have these type of temperature changes than here on the Central Plains. Boy does it feel nice, opened the windows and have a great breeze airing out the house.

[Minny_Weather]

What's this "seasonably cold" nonsense I keep on hearing? Apparently it's what's happening now. Bring back the unseasonable cold! 36.7*F.

[Hawkeye]

​DMX talking possible 70s Friday BUT THEN potentially "snowy Saturday and Saturday night" with the strong CAA and wraparound precip. Crazy!

 

Well, I'll gladly take a couple cold, crappy days over the weekend if we can get into the 60s and 70s Wed-Fri.

[Money]

So the gfs is a little different for Friday system

[Minny_Weather]

So the gfs is a little different for Friday system

If it gets so much moisture that there's actually precip SW of the low like it's advertising I'll drink a full bottle of ghost pepper sauce.

[Money]

GEM is also different

 

Takes a secondary low from AR area up to Chicago

[hlcater]

The 00z GFS is weird in a number of ways. First that it doesn't occlude the low, not that weird. Weirder is that the low kind of stalls/loops over central Iowa. Even weirder than that is the mostly backed surface winds at 12z that then veer at 18z, only to back again at 00z. Then the low rapidly fills and the whole shebang is over. 

[Money]

The 00z GFS is weird in a number of ways. First that it doesn't occlude the low, not that weird. Weirder is that the low kind of stalls/loops over central Iowa. Even weirder than that is the mostly backed surface winds at 12z that then veer at 18z, only to back again at 00z. Then the low rapidly fills and the whole shebang is over.

 

If you wanna check out weird look at the 0z gem

[hlcater]

GEM is also different

 

Takes a secondary low from AR area up to Chicago

 

 

That low suffers from convective feedback and is most likely bogus imo. At least it forms that way, then it develops into a full fledged cyclone.

[Money]

Heres hr 108 on the GEM

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018040900&fh=108

 

Not that different from any model

 

Well here’s hr 144

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018040900&fh=144

 

And then 168

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018040900&fh=168

[hlcater]

If you wanna check out weird look at the 0z gem

yea, just looked, there's so many things fundamentally wrong with that run. That's not how that works GEM. I don't know much, but I know enough about convection and model behavior to call that BS out when I see it.

[Money]

Here’s the snow total on the gem

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018040900&fh=180

[Minny_Weather]

The models are getting food poisoning from whatever data they ate just now obviously.

[Money]

gosaints to msp special

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018040900&fh=144&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Temps in the mid 20’s during the snow

[Money]

Ukie at 120 has a 991 L in southern KS

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

[OKwx2k4]

Either way all of this goes, I have about a 900 percent chance of rain in the next few days. And wind. Can't forget the wind. Every. Single. Day. All I'm asking for is a calm 72 degree day this spring. Not going to happen.

[Tom]

It's the Cub's Home Opener today and all the local news channels have Live shots at Wrigley Field.  Looks more like a December day at Solider Field with snow falling from the sky.  #ilivedthroughApril'18

[OKwx2k4]

It's the Cub's Home Opener today and all the local news channels have Live shots at Wrigley Field. Looks more like a December day at Solider Field with snow falling from the sky. #ilivedthroughApril'18

Lol. I'd hate to be a baseball player this year.

[Tom]

I can't think of anymore words to describe the unprecedented cold we have seen this April.  This is just ridiculous!  #FrozenYoopers

 

 

 

 

The temps I posted yesterday morning at Land O'Lakes ended up being a record low:

 

 

 

-12° Land O'Lakes, WI -7° Antigo, WI -4° Rhinelander, WI -4° Hibbing, MN

[Tom]

I find this rather interesting, YTD SPC severe/tornado watches are at a snails pace compared to recent years.  Severe wx this season is non-existent thus far and I don't expect much, if anything, for the remainder of this month for our sub.  Head into the deep south or OV.

 

[WBadgersW]

NWS has a high of 62 on Friday. Bring it on

[Tom]

I started a storm thread for the late week/weekend storm potential...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1784-april-13th-15th-spring-bowling-ball/

[Tom]

I really think we get out of this abysmal pattern as we flip into the early part of May.  The LRC suggests a warming trend after the first few opening days of the month and recent runs of the CFSv2 are trying to hint at that.

 

 

 

It may strengthen as we get into the middle part of the month but I'm not jumping on it, esp if there is still a lot of blocking around.