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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


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The last couple runs of the euro have shown a quick-hitting, potent system mid next week.

 

ecmwf_ptype_slp_mw_144.png

ecmwf_24h_snow_mw_156.png

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season snowfall: 25.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Correction to the above: I said that 2x, once in late Jan for the Feb open and the other time was recently for the April open.  Mind you, I was born in '82, so since then, I have not seen a pattern as

Now just imagine if this was four months ago.

Always a little sad when we transition out of winter storm mode. I thought the discussions were tremendous. I come here to learn from extremely smart people. I have told my wife that some on here hav

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12z Euro 10-day snowfall... just a bit extreme.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_nebraska_240.png

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season snowfall: 25.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro 10-day snowfall... just a bit extreme.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_nebraska_240.png

Lines up almost perfectly with the warm front's placement tomorrow.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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If the 12z NAM is right, anyone north of I-80 should enjoy today as much as possible, tomorrow looks like crap!

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_34.png

 

Monday..

 

20180409 Noon Obs for KRMY.PNG

 

Today..

 

20180412 3pm Obs for KRMY.PNG

 

Not the Plains, lol   We don't get this spread in one hour like y'all out there do. Looks like massive over-performer for today and my 3-day taste of spring is getting compressed to half that. Back to winter by Sunday??

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 10.3"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 5.2 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The NWS thinks the front will stall between Ottumwa and Iowa City.  All the locals have drastically lowered our high temp tomorrow.  Earlier in the week, at least one 70 degree high appeared likely, but it's not going to happen.  It may be late in the month before we see the first 70.

 

The airport did hit 69 at 5pm, so there is a chance they hit 70.  Here in the city we maxed at 67.

season snowfall: 25.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Currently at 73F. :lol:

Yeah baby! Marshall was in the 70's for two hrs! Total bust by NWS but I'd give you ten bucks if you could find one person who's upset about it

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 10.3"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 5.2 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The CR airport must have hit 70 for a couple minutes because that's the official high temp.

season snowfall: 25.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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After yesterdays “heat wave” when the temperature shot all the way up to 64° that is good for the warmest day this year so far beating out February 20th high of 63° Even with yesterdays “heat” the mean temperature so far this April is just 34.0° (-10.3°) still on tract for one of the coldest April’s on record. And looking ahead there are more much colder than average days ahead the average H/L today is 57/37 and by Tuesday it is 59/38 the forecasted highs for the next 5 days are 48,36,35,38 and 44.

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Feels like Summer. Birds are singing, I have my windows open at 9am, there's humidity, I even hear a lawnmower. I wouldn't be surprised to get well past 80. It's not gonna be this way tomorrow. 67.3*F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Yeah baby! Marshall was in the 70's for two hrs! Total bust by NWS but I'd give you ten bucks if you could find one person who's upset about it

Man, it was beautiful yesterday. I stepped outside at least more than 10X just to feel and breathe that warmth. :D

 

Official high yesterday was a lovely 77F. :)

Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 16.7"

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Funny how big of a difference a few miles makes. Just drove from Council Bluffs, IA to Pacific Junction, IA. That is not a long drive. Temperature in Council Bluffs was 55°F. Here it's 73°F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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DMX regarding next week. Funny how they end it:

Upper ridging then moves into the region again for Thursday and

Friday with temps returning to the 40s north and 50s south. These

highs are about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year so

definitely below normal through the week, except for Tuesday. At the

end of the extended into next weekend will come the next big storm

system. At this time there are large disagreements between the

models with the GFS and Canadian further south with the low and

trough while the Euro tracks the low further north and east. This

is beyond the range of this forecast package but will bear watching.

For now we just have rain mentioned west on Friday. May need to

consider thunder if the Euro is correct or snow if the GFS is

correct. The crazy cold spring pattern continues for the

foreseeable future.

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dtx.png

 

Man, that pink color is just one county north of me.

 

@Jaster....hey buddy, you think we are in for any surprises for this weekend?! My temp on Sat will be dropping to near 32F w hvy presip. Idk, but, this thing is screaming hvy wet snow accumulations. Something to keep an eye on. :unsure:

Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 16.7"

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dtx.png

 

Man, that blue color is just one county north of me.

 

@Jaster....hey buddy, you think we are in for any surprises for this weekend?! My temp on Sat will be dropping to near 32F w hvy presip. Idk, but, this thing is screaming hvy wet snow accumulations. Something to keep an eye on. :unsure:

I'm not jaster but I think you'll get ice.

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The euro continues to spit out insane snow amounts in part of Nebraska when this system is combined with the big one a week out.  The latest run drops up to 4 feet.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_nebraska_222.png

season snowfall: 25.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Well, they did keep asking for snow.... :lol:

No, not here. The parts of Nebraska that actually get snow.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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WSW for my area.....

 

Per Noaa:

 

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing and heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet accumulations of up to a half inch and ice accumulations of two tenths to three tenths of an inch are expected. Northeast winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour with gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour are also expected, with the strongest winds occuring this afternoon through tonight. * WHERE...Macomb County. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel will be dangerous and nearly impossible. Tree branches could fall. Expect significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Strong winds are also expected. &&  :rolleyes: :wacko: :ph34r:

Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 16.7"

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Wow, earlier in the winter, never thought i was gonna do well in the plains, but as winter progressed my jackpot area in the upper midwest came true! 

 

ScreenShot2018-04-14at9.57.55PM.png

 

test

 

ScreenShot2018-04-14at9.58.35PM.png

 

ScreenShot2018-04-14at10.11.36PM.png

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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We are in the midst of natures fury across the majority of our sub forum. A day, a weekend, many of us will not forget for a very long time. Where do we go from here??? Models are suggesting, let's do this again for parts of N NE/IA/MN and into WI. Building a glacier in late April???

 

00z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018041500/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z Canadian...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018041500/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

00z Euro pretty much lines up with the GFS/Canadian...

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One has to wonder, if these wetter trends continue for parts of the central Plains into May, could the CFSv2 lead the way for this Summer???  A lot is riding on what happens here over the next several weeks.

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_5.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_10.png

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On this last day to file your taxes (Thanks Uncle Sam), we are in the midst of natures fury across the majority of our sub forum.  A day, a weekend, many of us will not forget for a very long time.  Where do we go from here???  Models are suggesting, let's do this again for parts of N NE/IA/MN and into WI.  Building a glacier in late April???

Sad that climo finally has to kick in with this storm and we get mostly rain.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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One has to wonder, if these wetter trends continue for parts of the central Plains into May, could the CFSv2 lead the way for this Summer??? A lot is riding on what happens here over the next several weeks.

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_5.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_10.png

Man, if there's ever a place that needs the rain, the green spot is it.

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Models continue to shift south with the big weekend storm.  The latest euro has nothing in Iowa.

season snowfall: 25.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow, earlier in the winter, never thought i was gonna do well in the plains, but as winter progressed my jackpot area in the upper midwest came true!

 

ScreenShot2018-04-14at9.57.55PM.png

 

test

 

ScreenShot2018-04-14at9.58.35PM.png

 

ScreenShot2018-04-14at10.11.36PM.png

My hat's off to you sir. Great job. You were east of mine and it was perfect. Well done.

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This extremely cold April continues. With the month now at the half way point the mean temperature at Grand Rapids is now 34.4° that is colder than a average March witch is 35.6°. We (along with many other locations in the upper Great Lakes and upper Midwest) This year has been one of the coldest starts to April in recorded history. And will likely end up being one of the top ten coldest in recorded history as well.

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Currently, trees are still bare. This reminds me of Spring 2014, when May arrived w 75% of bared trees. Weather should quiet down as the week goes on and more moderating temps.

Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 16.7"

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Please let this be right.  The snowstorms and cold are exciting from the weather geek perspective, but I am done with it.  The avg high is 61 now.

 

KCID_2018041600_forecast_EPS_360.png

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season snowfall: 25.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Whateva happened to severe weather season here in MI this Spring? An inch of snow expected here tonight w breezy conditions and temps dropping in the upper 20s. Crazy! :ph34r: :wacko:

 

Btw: average high this time of the year is 61F. Go figure! :rolleyes:

 

Per Noaa:

There is a chance of snow tonight as a low pressure system dropsthrough southern Michigan. Locations north of M-59 could get around 1inch of accumulation by Tuesday morning with lesser amountssouthward toward the Ohio border. Highest amounts look to be in theThumb where 1-2 inches may fall.

Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 16.7"

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