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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


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Correction to the above: I said that 2x, once in late Jan for the Feb open and the other time was recently for the April open.  Mind you, I was born in '82, so since then, I have not seen a pattern as

Now just imagine if this was four months ago.

Always a little sad when we transition out of winter storm mode. I thought the discussions were tremendous. I come here to learn from extremely smart people. I have told my wife that some on here hav

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12Z GFS painting a good looking scenario for some severe weather in Eastern Nebraska next Monday.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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He said things had been progressing then the blizzard hit with frigid lows following. If we can stay away from lows in the 20’s and low 30’s things will be good.

If we repeat 1911 again, which is a top 3 analog for this year so far, they'd better be prepared to take some losses at harvest time.

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This is an interesting study that was conducted during last years Canadian wildfire season. A lot of similarities in the wx pattern this season argue that we will see another bad fire season up north.

 

https://www.facebook.com/TomSkilling/posts/10156196556436760

I know it's weird but when they have wildfires up there and I sit under cool NW flow in the late summer, Oklahoma sunsets are incredible due to the smoke in the atmosphere.

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That's really odd to hear you still have bare trees in your neck of the woods. Over here, 100% of the trees are still bare, although, during the "brief" 2-day warm spell (11th-12th) , trees did try to bud but then the cold snap came and hit them hard. We're going to need a stretch of warm and sunny days and hopefully by early next week the process of growth can occur. It's rather depressing having to look at "skeletons" throughout the neighborhood! This is my first Spring in many years (6), where I have not gone to AZ yet. Work and family stuff has kept me in Chicago but I'm hopeful to take a break very soon. Experiencing this type of weather just validates why Spring's in the SW are a blessing.

It is crazy for Oklahoma. I still have brown patches of grass in my yard also. The latest "leaf-out" that I remember in my life would have to be 2013. We're way behind that now, which may be a huge clue that there will likely be more cold temp records set in May down here.

 

When it snowed May 3, 2013, there weren't any bare trees and the grass was fully green.

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I was down in Kansas City yesterday and one specific tree species had white flowers on it. Those are the only trees there that were doing anything. Still absolutely no progress here, although most of the grass is finally green there are some brown areas.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I was down in Kansas City yesterday and one specific tree species had white flowers on it. Those are the only trees there that were doing anything. Still absolutely no progress here, although most of the grass is finally green there are some brown areas.

Those would be Dogwood trees. They bloomed in spite of the weather here and then when it froze again it made their blooms ugly. For about 2 weeks though, they looked like ghosts in the forests here. It was the first time I'd ever seen them bloom by themselves. I've always loved Dogwoods.

 

The last full weekend in April, the town 12 miles to my north celebrates what is known as the Dogwood festival. It's a pretty big deal here.

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We've also overperformed the last couple days.  My tulips are only about two inches tall.

season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So glad to see the models holding onto the warm finish to the week and into the weekend!  We will likely see the best Spring weekend of 2018 this coming week for a lot of us on here.  The big ridge to develop across the central CONUS is directly related to the late Oct pattern (22nd-24th) which brought a strong storm system driving into the west coast and pumped a big ridge in the central states.  However, during this cycle we have to account for seasonal differences and I expect this system to take a more northerly track, similar to the track this system took in LRC cycle #2 between Dec 4th/5th that brought an Upper MW Blizzard.

 

00z EPS...

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_8.png

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_10.png

 

 

What happens after this system passes???  I think the EPS has the right idea and a more seasonably cooler pattern sets up post May 3rd while the GEFS are insisting a largely AN temp regime.  I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but doesn't it seem like every year the GEFS almost always seem way to warm during the Week 2 period in the late Spring/Summer months and to cold in the Autumn/Winter months???

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GFS continues to advertise extremely high CAPE levels early next week. However, there is too much capping and too weak shear Monday, and Tuesday the shear is god awful. High lapse rates on Monday MAY suggest a hail threat but any severe wx threats Tuesday should stay North of here per GFS.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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GFS continues to advertise extremely high CAPE levels early next week. However, there is too much capping and too weak shear Monday, and Tuesday the shear is god awful. High lapse rates on Monday MAY suggest a hail threat but any severe wx threats Tuesday should stay North of here per GFS.

 

 

Gosh, this is really taking some getting used to in terms of paying attention to Illinois' weather rather than Nebraska's. Tomorrow will be my official last day in Lincoln, and I couldn't have asked for a better ending. Temps near 70, and absolutely beautiful. Going to be really tough on me leaving here, really had some awesome times. Regardless, I'm hoping severe wx season gets started here soon, because this is insane how slow it's been so far! 

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Gosh, this is really taking some getting used to in terms of paying attention to Illinois' weather rather than Nebraska's. Tomorrow will be my official last day in Lincoln, and I couldn't have asked for a better ending. Temps near 70, and absolutely beautiful. Going to be really tough on me leaving here, really had some awesome times. Regardless, I'm hoping severe wx season gets started here soon, because this is insane how slow it's been so far! 

I'll miss having you here! Enjoy getting every storm that we don't get.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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While not officially at the airport yet. I now have 70° here at my house. The last time GRR had a 70° or better reading was on October 22, 2017. That is 184 days so it has been 6 months since the last official 70° or better day here in Grand Rapids. The seasonal snow fall here at Grand Rapids is now at 77.7" that should be the seasonal total

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MPX tweeting that 2” soil temp is already at 54F.....a little more than one week after an 18” snowfall on top of frozen ground. I was noticing yesterday how soft the ground felt. I didn’t think the soil temp was that warm already though. Pretty remarkable.

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MPX tweeting that 2” soil temp is already at 54F.....a little more than one week after an 18” snowfall on top of frozen ground. I was noticing yesterday how soft the ground felt. I didn’t think the soil temp was that warm already though. Pretty remarkable.

Any snow left up by you or is it completely gone? Neighbor next to me up in Eagle River said still a few inches but was melting very quickly. Guess is was close to 60 up there over the weekend.

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Any snow left up by you or is it completely gone? Neighbor next to me up in Eagle River said still a few inches but was melting very quickly. Guess is was close to 60 up there over the weekend.

All that’s left of the snow are the dirty piles on the side of the driveway. Still about a foot deep in spots. Otherwise nothing in my yard. Temp hit 64 yesterday and 68 today. Crazy turnaround.

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Oh my, this weekend into the early part of next week looks fantastic...summer tease around the corner.  The trees need to start greening up around here quick bc the bare trees are getting pretty old.  Nonetheless, looking forward to next weeks back to back 70's.

 

DbikKxYWkAAk62Y.jpg

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I'm not buying into the major warmth the GFS/GEFS are advertising Week 1-2...the EPS has the right idea knowing where we will be heading according to the LRC.  Seasonably cool should be expected as the "cold" part of the LRC sets up.  Watch for the Vortex to take shape near Hudson Bay.  As we get deeper into the warm season, troughs are less amplified but still effect the overall pattern.  I'd imagine we will see plenty of chilly HP's in the marry month of May.

 

 

DbitcrMUQAEE02_.jpg

 

 

vs EPS....

 

DbitcrNVQAM7cNs.jpg

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The temperature reached 74° here in Grand Rapids yesterday (75° at my house) The grass this morning is noticeably greener then it has been.  And my daffodils are now in full bloom but the tulips still have a long way to go yet but warmer temperatures and any rain will push them along. As for the trees well there are buds on them but it will be into May before we see any sign of leaves on the trees this year. That has been the tread over a large part of the Great Lakes and Midwest this year. This spring has reminded me of the years I lived in Alpena more so then the time I have lived in Grand Rapids.

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I'm not buying into the major warmth the GFS/GEFS are advertising Week 1-2...the EPS has the right idea knowing where we will be heading according to the LRC.  Seasonably cool should be expected as the "cold" part of the LRC sets up.  Watch for the Vortex to take shape near Hudson Bay.  As we get deeper into the warm season, troughs are less amplified but still effect the overall pattern.  I'd imagine we will see plenty of chilly HP's in the marry month of May.

 

 

DbitcrMUQAEE02_.jpg

 

 

vs EPS....

 

DbitcrNVQAM7cNs.jpg

 

Sheesh, just a "slight" difference, eh??

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 7.5"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 2.4 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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While not officially at the airport yet. I now have 70° here at my house. The last time GRR had a 70° or better reading was on October 22, 2017. That is 184 days so it has been 6 months since the last official 70° or better day here in Grand Rapids. The seasonal snow fall here at Grand Rapids is now at 77.7" that should be the seasonal total

 

Did GRR officially tag 70F??  Marshall had a repeat of the 12th by tagging 73F and scoring a couple hrs in the 70's. A solid 40 deg's warmer than my high on the 9th

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 7.5"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 2.4 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Did GRR officially tag 70F??  Marshall had a repeat of the 12th by tagging 73F and scoring a couple hrs in the 70's. A solid 40 deg's warmer than my high on the 9th

yes, The official high reached 74° that is one of the latest dates for the first 70° in Grand Rapids in the last 70 years.

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The pattern to close out April and open May may finally put an end into the Tornado drought for KS/OK.  Strong signal this far out for the seasons largest severe wx threat across the central Plains into the Upper MW.

 

DbjU2AMX0AAzOkj.jpg

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I'm not buying into the major warmth the GFS/GEFS are advertising Week 1-2...the EPS has the right idea knowing where we will be heading according to the LRC. Seasonably cool should be expected as the "cold" part of the LRC sets up. Watch for the Vortex to take shape near Hudson Bay. As we get deeper into the warm season, troughs are less amplified but still effect the overall pattern. I'd imagine we will see plenty of chilly HP's in the marry month of May.

 

 

DbitcrMUQAEE02_.jpg

 

 

vs EPS....

 

DbitcrNVQAM7cNs.jpg

I think the next 14 days finish above average as the above average days will have a larger departure than the below average days..
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GFS is warm for the eastern half of the country through the first week of May. 

 

Was going to say.."don't look at the Euro Ens" Yikes!

 

I think the next 14 days finish above average as the above average days will have a larger departure than the below average days..

 

Hope that plan extends farther east as well?? 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 7.5"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 2.4 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I think the next 14 days finish above average as the above average days will have a larger departure than the below average days..

I hope so, but not so certain it will average that much AN over the next 2 weeks.  You may fair better than my local.

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The pond to ur east generally doesn't help

Nope!  @IllinoisWx isn't going to like living next to the chilly Lake Michigan next month.  Its actually running rather chilly for the time of year.

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Looks like another sunny weekend on tap, although, Saturday might start off cloudy, but mainly dry. Clouds should depart hopefully as the late afternoon hours wears on. Sunday looks gorgeous.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.2"

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Really nice batch of rain coming through Nebraska from about I-80 and south. I am under a heavy cell right now. 42 degrees with a wind chill of 34 and raining. Supposed to be in the 70's this weekend.

I'm excited for this rain. Let's get the grass moist. This has thankfully not been too bad of a fire season, only high profile fire here has been the Council Bluffs fire.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I'm excited for this rain. Let's get the grass moist. This has thankfully not been too bad of a fire season, only high profile fire here has been the Council Bluffs fire.

It is now heavy rain here.  Closing in on 1 inch according to NWS storm total radar (we will see when actual reports occur).  IMO, this is overperforming according to how much we were predicted by local forecasters.  

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As it stands right now, we are at our 8th driest April. With today and tomorrow's rain, we will likely avoid the top 10 in that category.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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It's a fantastic 75 degrees over here.  We have been overperforming most days, recently.  We really could use a nice storm with a heavy, cleansing rain totaling an inch.

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season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Rain has considerably and disappointingly weakened. We're lucky if we end up getting .2" now.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Jesus H. Christ. Like it always does no matter the precip type, the rain is forming a dome around Lincoln. I'm done. I hate it here. I'm moving to Norfolk. I don't care if I become a redneck.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Nope! @IllinoisWx isn't going to like living next to the chilly Lake Michigan next month. Its actually running rather chilly for the time of year.

 

Lol very true, not a fan of that! I need me some 80s on the lake so i can go running and not hate my life. Chicago needs to heat up D****T!

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