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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


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Correction to the above: I said that 2x, once in late Jan for the Feb open and the other time was recently for the April open.  Mind you, I was born in '82, so since then, I have not seen a pattern as

Now just imagine if this was four months ago.

Always a little sad when we transition out of winter storm mode. I thought the discussions were tremendous. I come here to learn from extremely smart people. I have told my wife that some on here hav

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29F on the car thermo right along the lakeshore north of St. Joe this morning. Looks like Marshall also bottomed at 29F just before 7. But hey! It was great cutting grass for the first time last evening. I don't keep exact dates, but I'm sure April 29th is the latest kick-off of mowing season in my 10 yrs living there! 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The temperature and strong South wind say Summer, but the trees still say late March. 61.3*F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Hey, let's do this one more time and put this month to bed???  Record lows on the table tomorrow morning across the Mitt and some locals in the region.

 

 

Db35UweX0AImWGS.jpg

 

It looks like the official low at GRR this morning was 29° so no record low at Grand Rapids. However here at my house the low was 25° At this time have full sun and a current temperature at my house of 42° The grass has now turned green in my area. Still not enough to have to cut yet but that will change with the expected rain over the next few days. Gee I just drained the snow blower last week.

 

I slept thru Marshall's 25F yesterday morning. By the time I was poking my head outside around 11, it was sunny pleasant and a whole lot less windy than Saturday was. Went out of town visiting Saturday and while it was a beautiful spring day for a road trip, the car thermo was mostly in the 40's even in far SWMI

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Currently 55F here but heading up into the low 80s today assuming the storms that are moving in don’t leave too much debris. 83 in the point. The ice on the lake is now completely gone as of this morning. It’s the all-time latest recorded ice out. We melted 18” of snow and 25” of ice over the last 15 days. Pretty remarkable. I even have creeping charlie and a few other weeds already growing in the yard.

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Currently 55F here but heading up into the low 80s today assuming the storms that are moving in don’t leave too much debris. 83 in the point. The ice on the lake is now completely gone as of this morning. It’s the all-time latest recorded ice out. We melted 18” of snow and 25” of ice over the last 15 days. Pretty remarkable. I even have creeping charlie and a few other weeds already growing in the yard.

 

Yep, exactly 14 days ago I was downtown Grand Rapids (MI not MN) and it looked and felt like a typical January day. Mowed my lawn late yesterday and wasn't even chilly. Sometimes we experience sudden plunges into winter usually via a massive storm system like we saw with the Jan of '99 bliz. This is not quite as dramatic but in the opposite direction. Truly impressive stuff 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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At this time, it looks like April 2018 will be the 4th coldest April in Grand Rapids history. We will know for sure tomorrow the current mean temperature at GRR is 39.7° and the current 5 coldest April’s are

  1.  1907    37.6°
  2. 1950    39.6°
  3. 1975    39.8°
  4. 1926    40.4°
  5. 1904    40.9°

My guess it that this year will take over the 4th spot from 1926 with a projected mean of around 40.1°

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The official low at GRR this morning was 30° here at my house the low was a colder 27° even with the sun and temperatures in the upper 50’s to 60° the very low dew points in the upper teens and the wind made it feel much cooler then that in the shade the last two days.
 

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I-80 at Aurora exit in Central Nebraska is closed due to multiple accidents caused by very low visibility due to blowing dust. Winds have been gusting between 50-60 MPH. Warmth was great but what a horrible day to be outside.

I seen some video of what the conditions looked like and it was nuts! 

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:huh:  Never remember seeing this headline anywhere in the Mitten even tho northern forest regions certainly need it. First time for mby tho!

 

Fire Weather Watch

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1228 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-010000-
/O.NEW.KGRR.FW.A.0001.180430T1628Z-180501T0000Z/
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
1228 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a Fire
Weather Watch, which is in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...In the mid to upper 60s.

* Impacts...Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
red flag warnings.

&&

$

Laurens/WDM

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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76 degrees/ dp 50 degrees, south wind sustained at 35 MPH.  We will see if storms develop this afternoon along the cold front.  One local met. says there is a chance the atmosphere will be capped and can the cap be broken?  Where exactly do storms fire is another question that the local ABC Met. is wondering.

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:huh:  Never remember seeing this headline anywhere in the Mitten even tho northern forest regions certainly need it. First time for mby tho!

 

Fire Weather Watch

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

1228 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

 

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-010000-

/O.NEW.KGRR.FW.A.0001.180430T1628Z-180501T0000Z/

Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-

Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-

Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-

1228 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

 

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a Fire

Weather Watch, which is in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening.

 

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

 

* Temperatures...In the mid to upper 60s.

 

* Impacts...Outdoor burning is not recommended.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions

are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible

red flag warnings.

 

&&

 

$

 

Laurens/WDM

I get that a lot when I travel to Greece (Andros Island). Air is very dry there, so sometimes from my house there, I can see the mountains across being burned down.

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:huh:  Never remember seeing this headline anywhere in the Mitten even tho northern forest regions certainly need it. First time for mby tho!

 

Fire Weather Watch

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

1228 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

 

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-010000-

/O.NEW.KGRR.FW.A.0001.180430T1628Z-180501T0000Z/

Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-

Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-

Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-

1228 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

 

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a Fire

Weather Watch, which is in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening.

 

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

 

* Temperatures...In the mid to upper 60s.

 

* Impacts...Outdoor burning is not recommended.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions

are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible

red flag warnings.

 

&&

 

$

 

Laurens/WDM

 It's been dry here in Grand Haven.  There was a dune (grass) fire in Spring Lake today.  Looks like they have it under control now and saved a housing development.  

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Pics from a friend of mine in High Point, NJ.......Snow had fallen w temps in the 20s. A nice way to welcome May.

31715154_10211706715158794_8031716786300

 

31543702_10211706714158769_1382678520953

 

..it's still April, unless that's tomorrow's news, lol  I'll still "hard pass" on that

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I see there are now Dust Storm Warnings for 4 counties around and including Lincoln. This is like 1930's stuff.

The next few weeks are gonna be critical in the moisture dept. Hope this ain’t a prevgow. Even out here, I could taste dust in the air. Reminds me of AZ somewhat.

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I don't see any dust in Lincoln but it sounds like outside of the city is in bad shape. My friend is driving from Kearney to Lincoln and he's passing cars and trucks piled up due to the dust.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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Crazy wind and the sky in the distance is brown. 83.1°F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Spent the weekend up in the northern woods of Wisconsin.  Couldn't believe how much snow there still was in the woods.  Lakes are still partially ice and snow covered.  Woke up to a crisp 20 F (not sure what the overnight low got to).  Something else I discovered... Granite Peak in Wausau is still open weekends?!?!  Surprised the guy who's always bragging about snowboarding hasn't made the trip up there.  Take a look...

 

 

IMG_0845.jpg

IMG_0847.PNG

IMG_0848.jpg

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I can feel and taste the dust in the air, its awful. Here is a

from a guy on hwy 6 by Friend. Crazy on road as it goes from clear to nothing just like that.

Wow, thanks for sharing. Going to need good moisture and the crops to take hold to reduce the blowing dust. Fortunately we have irrigation today but this shows just on a small scale how dust can be blown on the Great Plains

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Boy, was it warm today.  I totally expected we'd blow past 80 and even the most aggressive forecasts.  The CR airport hit 84.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Our storm threat is disappearing tonight. They all went north. Tomorrow’s storms look to be southeast of here. Missed both days by the look of it. Not good for the dry conditions.

I am quoting Gary Lezak and tend to agree, tomorrows enhanced area gets shifted to the north and west. We should all do good tomorrow.......at least I hope so.

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I am quoting Gary Lezak and tend to agree, tomorrows enhanced area gets shifted to the north and west. We should all do good tomorrow.......at least I hope so.

Hope that is correct. Local met. says southeast of the Tri-Cities. Going to depend on the location of the cold front.

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Hope that is correct. Local met. says southeast of the Tri-Cities. Going to depend on the location of the cold front.

I think storms will form along the triple point near Hebron or so then move Northeast along the cold front, wherever that sets up. Tomorrow is ideal for training thunderstorms as well so someone has the possibility of having a helluva day tomorrow with severe weather followed by flash flooding. It'll be feast or famine for sure, many people in the enhanced risk will not see a drop of rain.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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0Z NAM models seem to have shifted the best area down into KS. 3km NAM has several rotating cells but down in Kansas. The other CAMS have some monster cells, but again down in Kansas. I think I am going to head a bit further south into Kansas. It'll be interesting to see what the HRRR says when it gets into range.

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0Z NAM models seem to have shifted the best area down into KS. 3km NAM has several rotating cells but down in Kansas. The other CAMS have some monster cells, but again down in Kansas. I think I am going to head a bit further south into Kansas. It'll be interesting to see what the HRRR says when it gets into range.

If this busts for here I might just cry. We need the moisture more than anything and I'd be willing to steal it from Kansas, who also needs moisture.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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If this busts for here I might just cry. We need the moisture more than anything and I'd be willing to steal it from Kansas, who also needs moisture.

I'm sure it will still storm, just a matter of how severe it is in our area

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0Z NAM models seem to have shifted the best area down into KS. 3km NAM has several rotating cells but down in Kansas. The other CAMS have some monster cells, but again down in Kansas. I think I am going to head a bit further south into Kansas. It'll be interesting to see what the HRRR says when it gets into range.

The 00z NAM sucked across the board. Like it literally has no redeeming qualities. Currently thinking TP/WF in NC KS is probably gonna be the best play, with perhaps a few dryline storms, where all of the CAMs initiate a few supercells. Another area that bears watching would be SW OK near Altus where the 3km NAM has been extremely consistent on a dryline bulge which would elongate hodographs due to increased directional shear. However, initiation is extremely conditional in this area and may not happen at all, but there might be a surprise or two down there if CI occurs. Given relatively widespread 0-1km SRH profiles in the vicinity of 200 m2s2, I could see a decent sized 10% hatched and maybe, just maybe a 15% in NC KS if you really wanna be an optimist where 0-1km SRH is generally towards 300 m2s2 with eSRH approaching 400 m2s2 in spots. Thinking tomorrow will end up being superior to Wednesday, which has a lot of caveats if you ask me.

2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 28.6"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7") (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7") (Jan. 23: 3.1") (Jan 24. 3.6") (Jan. 28: 0.7") (Feb. 13: 1.5")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn

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It is now official April 2018 was the 4th coldest in Grand Rapids history. At Muskegon it was the 2nd coldest April in history.  It also was the coldest April since 1975 so to many of you it was the coldest April in your lifetime!

 2018 is now the coldest April in recorded history at Flint Michigan. Flints mean this April was 39.1° the old record coldest April was 39.4° in 1950. It was the 2nd coldest April at Saginaw and while it was down the list at 13th in Detroit it was none the less the coldest there since 1950.

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It is now official April 2018 was the 4th coldest in Grand Rapids history. At Muskegon it was the 2nd coldest April in history.  It also was the coldest April since 1975 so to many of you it was the coldest April in your lifetime!

 2018 is now the coldest April in recorded history at Flint Michigan. Flints mean this April was 39.1° the old record coldest April was 39.4° in 1950. It was the 2nd coldest April at Saginaw and while it was down the list at 13th in Detroit it was none the less the coldest there since 1950.

 

Per a poster in Jackson for comparisons:

 

"April ends here with a -7.0 departure. That is a larger departure than the +5.3 last April. Remarkably enough yesterday's 72 degree official high at JXN still ranked yesterday -2 departure thanks to the 29 degree overnight low. Just 6 days were above normal in April and of course we had legit snow squalls and a legit winter storm with tons of snow and sleet to the north with an ice storm south of a Lansing to Grand Rapids to Pontiac line and on April 15th no less so at the half way point of the month puts it more into the rare air category."

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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