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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


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Correction to the above: I said that 2x, once in late Jan for the Feb open and the other time was recently for the April open.  Mind you, I was born in '82, so since then, I have not seen a pattern as

Now just imagine if this was four months ago.

Always a little sad when we transition out of winter storm mode. I thought the discussions were tremendous. I come here to learn from extremely smart people. I have told my wife that some on here hav

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When it's gonna be cold in the spring you can count on Tom posts. Warm? You can count on them from me.

 

A couple years ago I remember being torn up for cfs posts when they showed warmth.

Not true.  I guess you missed several posts I made over the past few weeks of possible warmth, of which, is now beginning to look non existence to due the extensive blocking pattern.  I would love to see a warm Spring and post torches instead of this gloomy, cloudy, cold, wet and boring extended cold pattern.  Believe me, I'm not the "old poster" I once was always posting about cold all the time.  I've grown to provide more balance in this forum which is the growth I've endured.

 

In reference to the CFSv2, since 2 years ago, this model has been doing an amazing job post-upgrade and I've been using it as a tool quite often actually.

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Yeah this cold isn't gonna be good for the planting season. The last thing we need is killing freezes in May.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Yeah this cold isn't gonna be good for the planting season. The last thing we need is killing freezes in May.

Remember last year's late April CO/KS blizzard that killed plenty of cattle and I believe their wheat took a hit???  I wonder if some places this year get hit with a large snow storm.

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I think the 12z GFS just read the script off of the LRC for Week 2!  Gotta love it...not only does the Polar Vortex make a visit into the GL's late next week into the weekend but a potent system develops across the Plains...

 

gfs_z500a_us_34.png

 

 

 

Snowstorm anyone???  Fits the pattern...all I'm saying...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018032912/240/snku_acc.us_c.png

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I'm pretty sure many on here are sick of hearing about the cold pattern forthcmoing.  Not much else to talk about unless you have anything else on your mind.  Week 2 cold looks brutal, for April standards, lining up quite well with the LRC's coldest period each cycle.  00z Euro control is certainly painting the cold look.  I wonder if the incoming cold breaks any records this month, and if we do indeed see some places get hit with April snows....will there be a biggie farther south April 8th-11th???

 

00z GEFS...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

That's been a favored track this winter..go with it

 

 

..here's a Quarter - phone someone who cares

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 10.3"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 5.2 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I'm even less convinced that the LRC actually exists than I was before the season.....

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 18.7"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2")

 

Formerly NWLinn

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I'm even less convinced that the LRC actually exists than I was before the season.....

You should read his peer review paper and follow his Weather2020 blog and it may open up your mind to the cyclical nature of the westerly belt across the Northern Hemisphere.

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Euro ensemble mean is looking pretty snowy for some areas.

 

eps_acc_snow_conus_360.png

season snowfall: 25.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I have been out of the loop today taking our Junior daughter on college visits, going to visit UNL tomorrow, Go Big Red, and just saw the 12z GFS, holy cow. That snow would break some snowfall records if it verified. Doubt we get anywhere near those totals, but pattern is conducive to storminess.

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Euro ensemble mean is looking pretty snowy for some areas.

 

attachicon.gifeps_acc_snow_conus_360.png

That's just insane...history may be re-written during this 2 week stretch in April...12z Euro has a major snowstorm late next week and both GFS/EURO are showing something across our sub forum.  I think someone is due to get hit hard late next week and fits the Feb 18th-20th storm system which ejected out of CO and tracked towards the GL's.  This system was an elongated SLP with a very tight thermal gradient across NE/IA/MN/WI and produced ample moisture (Flood watches for IL/S WI/IN/MI).  I think we will be seeing a lot more wintry precip this time.

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Here's the latest euro ensemble guidance for Cedar Rapids... pretty awful.  The avg high temp goes from 53 to 59 during the period.

 

KCID_2018032912_forecast_EPS_360.png

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season snowfall: 25.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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MPX said it best in their morning disco. Wind chills on Sunday morning may be in the -10 to -20F range in parts of MN. Yet record temps by late April are in the 90s. April is going to be one of the more interesting months of the year. We’re likely going into record cold territory to start. But if the ridge breaks we could see a complete 180 within a very short amount of time.

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MPX said it best in their morning disco. Wind chills on Sunday morning may be in the -10 to -20F range in parts of MN. Yet record temps by late April are in the 90s. April is going to be one of the more interesting months of the year. We’re likely going into record cold territory to start. But if the ridge breaks we could see a complete 180 within a very short amount of time.

I'd like to see that ridge keep retrograding out until it parks itself over the NE PAC and AK by late spring. If we could see that develop, would be both a strong late May and June storm season and a great setup post-summer. This pattern down here is simply depressing at this point.

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We average 1" in April so it definitely isn't out of the question. We haven't gotten April measurable snow since 2013. I'm too lazy to check when the last time we got a REAL snowfall in April was, but I'm thinking it was in the 90s.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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18z GFS and 12z euro both want to drop the arctic hammer next Saturday. Would easily be colder than anything in March if it verified lol.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 17.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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18z GFS and 12z euro both want to drop the arctic hammer next Saturday. Would easily be colder than anything in March if it verified lol.

No kidding. Highs in the mid-20s in April?

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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How comical for the wave on Sunday to go south of us lol. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come north eventually since thats what most clippers have done.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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How comical for the wave on Sunday to go south of us lol. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come north eventually since thats what most clippers have done.

If it snows measurably in Omaha Sunday I'll personally deliver you $5.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Wasn’t it supposed to snow today according to some of the models earlier this week? This weekend is going to be nothing but maybe some flurries if that. March will end up with less than 1” of snow here in Omaha. Epic indeed.

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My f***** god 00z GFS is wacko. 6" and still snowing on Kuchera @231.

 

With GFS' track record, I am 100% sure it will totally verify.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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6z GFs showing widespread 12–24” across Nebraska Iowa and Illinois. Not that that will happen but it shows the larger point that spring isn’t coming anytime soon. If this verified it will have to be one of the coldest starts to spring we’ve had in a long time.

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Season Snowfall: 20.5"

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Wasn’t it supposed to snow today according to some of the models earlier this week? This weekend is going to be nothing but maybe some flurries if that. March will end up with less than 1” of snow here in Omaha. Epic indeed.

Where are those 60's?  Enjoy the cold Easter.  Epic severe wx season.

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Going out on a limb against all the talk in here and say that Marshall manages to escape any additional measurable snowfall. Already my grid for the upcoming week is full of RN/SN crud. We dip into the 20's some nights when it's clear, but not quite cold enuff aloft during the moisture periods to be legit snowfall. Same story as the past 40+ days really. True winter exited here on or about St. Valentine's Day. Ever since, we've been living in a nether world that I can only term Wx Purgatory. Winter for mby was approximately 2 mos from Dec 7th to Feb 14th. During that period, snowfall was substantial but the regular complete torch-offs and the manner in which they happened really pulls the grade down from what it could've been.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 10.3"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 5.2 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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GEFS show a mean of 10"+ of snow for practically all of NE, except for E NE, up into most of MN into N/C WI through the middle of the month.  That's just incredible to even see a model consistently show the potential for that much snow in April.  I'm hearing the EPS is similar as well.

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I am in Lincoln today and have seen the forecast back in Central Nebraska they have already issued a WWA just to my west. My local forecast has 2-4 inches as of right now for Saturday night through Easter services on Sunday. I am an usher at church Sunday, might have to shovel the sidewalks in front of the church. Looks like a crazy pattern. I think it depends on timing, it would be more snow if it comes at night and not during the daylight hours with an April sun angle.

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GEFS show a mean of 10"+ of snow for practically all of NE, except for E NE, up into most of MN into N/C WI through the middle of the month. That's just incredible to even see a model consistently show the potential for that much snow in April. I'm hearing the EPS is similar as well.

I was just going to post this. I took a look at the 6z GEFS and some of the snow totals are mind blowing for April. Heck, they’d be pretty solid totals for January. The temp anomalies for late next week are insane on the GFS.

B0D843C0-34DA-4248-A669-F566BF019D9D.png

D48198DE-834B-4F0A-9C0A-285CC2E894F5.png

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Not a pretty outlook per recent trends via the CFSv2 this month....

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201804.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201804.gif

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I was just going to post this. I took a look at the 6z GEFS and some of the snow totals are mind blowing for April. Heck, they’d be pretty solid totals for January. The temp anomalies for late next week are insane on the GFS.

Not only that, but to see both the GFS/Euro on board with the idea of the Polar Vortex making a visit next weekend is phenomenal. 00z Euro suggesting near 0F lows not far from you but of course, your prob going to need snow OTG if those temps come close to verifying.

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KC has a shot at a record cold high on Easter Sunday. The record cold high for the day is 37F. The forecasted daytime high temps are predicted to be in the low 30’s with snow flying in the air.

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Where are those 60's? Enjoy the cold Easter. Epic severe wx season.

60 today. 60 this past Wednesday. Big deal, 40s this weekend with no snow. Back to 50s on Monday. As far as after that, it hasn’t snowed a flake yet in April and these clown maps we’ve seen numerous times this winter. We’re above normal for temperatures in March and we had 1 inch of snow. This winter we’ve had average or above average temperatures for every month except for one and have had 16 inches of snow, thus my skepticism. I believe you have said at least three times this season, this is a weather pattern you’ve never seen before, yet basically the entire forum is only near or even below average for snowfall. When you speak in hyperbole all the time and it doesn’t deliver.... Yet at the end of the day you don’t control the weather so I’m not sure why you get so ticked off when someone says they don’t believe it or you.

Btw, severe weather season hasn’t even started yet. It’s March 30th. And I’ve made no claims of an epic severe weather season.

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Not sure what Euro is showing, but GFS is showing the potential for some record cold in 10 days.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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60 today. 60 this past Wednesday. Big deal, 40s this weekend with no snow. Back to 50s on Monday. As far as after that, it hasn’t snowed a flake yet in April and these clown maps we’ve seen numerous times this winter. We’re above normal for temperatures in March and we had 1 inch of snow. This winter we’ve had average or above average temperatures for every month except for one and have had 16 inches of snow, thus my skepticism. I believe you have said at least three times this season, this is a weather pattern you’ve never seen before, yet basically the entire forum is only near or even below average for snowfall. When you speak in hyperbole all the time and it doesn’t deliver.... Yet at the end of the day you don’t control the weather so I’m not sure why you get so ticked off when someone says they don’t believe it or you.

Btw, severe weather season hasn’t even started yet. It’s March 30th. And I’ve made no claims of an epic severe weather season.

Correction to the above: I said that 2x, once in late Jan for the Feb open and the other time was recently for the April open.  Mind you, I was born in '82, so since then, I have not seen a pattern as such since I've been diligently following the weather.  Maybe those older folks on here have, but not I, said the guy from the Chi!

 

As per the second bolded, I only hear your comments when I'm wrong or the models don't agree or go the other way when a call I make goes south.  On the flip side, I go out on a limb, take risks, trust my intuition, when making long range predictions which are often fairly accurate, esp when it comes to forecasting a storm track/date, etc.  I'm not asking for a "round of applause", I do it bc its fun, it's a challenge and I learn from my mistakes.  It amuses me how you are quick to judge a wrong prediction but when they are right they don't get the acknowledgement.   I don't need a cheering squad bc I have confidence in what I do and where I'm eventually going to take this knowledge in the future.  Happy Good Friday! 

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The fact that powdery snow in daylight in April is on the table is nothing short of impressive. Granted it's 10 day GFS, but still an eyegasm.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The fact that powdery snow in daylight in April is on the table is nothing short of impressive. Granted it's 10 day GFS, but still an eyegasm.

Heck ya, I wonder what the models would have looked like back in April '82 if they had the same technology we do now.

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Not a pretty outlook per recent trends via the CFSv2 this month....

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201804.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201804.gif

 

Why am I not in Florida already??? 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 10.3"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 5.2 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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:lol: Ofc will prolly happen cuz RAIN's here..

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 10.3"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 5.2 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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ICON has been even more of a wet dream to us than GFS this year.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.5"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Looks like 40s and 50s through the next 10 for me

Good luck...

 

Meantime, 12z Euro farther south with the storm next Tue/Wed and hits IA/N IL/WI into MI with a significant snowstorm.

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This pattern is awful. Why couldn’t this come in January when people actually wanted it

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 18.7"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2")

 

Formerly NWLinn

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