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April 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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9.5” of fresh snow and 10F with a wind chill of -2F. If you had no idea what month it is you’d probably think it was mid January. The roads are an icy mess. They were fine during the storm as temps were in the upper 20s. But they iced over when temps dropped.

What an epic sight to see and feel on April 4th, 2018!

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It’s a bit surreal really. And to think that we may get another decent storm on Sunday. Wild weather to start the month.

#Iceage...this is truly and insane open to April...take a gander at the current 8:00am temps across our subforum....epic start to this month is no longer fantasy...Meanwhile, ORD picked up 1.1" of snow which is about average and more to come before the month is over...

 

 

DZ8FTKxVQAAMfip.jpg

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It’s a bit surreal really. And to think that we may get another decent storm on Sunday. Wild weather to start the month.

 

What's really crazy are the temps. Many times after an April snow it will be 50 the next day. 5 day forecast calls for highs either side of 32. Avg high temp is 52 warming to 55 by Sunday. In a way this is just as if not more impressive than the 2013 spring around here.

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Is there light at the end of the tunnel???  Yes, finally, a trend towards warmer (normal) temps as we approach mid next week.  Meantime, recent snows have edged towards decadal highs in terms of North American snow cover.

 

multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

Chasing 2013 hard!  

 

I remember the March storms that spring mostly missing south (tho one clipped St. Joe) but I don't remember April being so wintery like what's happening this morning. Right to the shoreline here we have horrid winds/squalls/icy roads causing many accidents and even x-way closures to clean them up. After a month and a half without this, it's like a second winter beginning. Worst of the worst imo  :(  I will say the evening T-showers yesterday in Marshall will help the already greening grass once we rebound to decent temps and sunshine. Whenever that happens??? :rolleyes:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From a poster on Amwx. Other observant eyes have noticed the striking parallels between this season and last.. :wacko:

 

Funny how our perceptions can be ridiculously skewed.

Here I was thinking this dearth of snow imby since mid-February is unprecedented. Then I go and look at the data for YYZ from mid-February onward last year and it's basically a carbon-copy. It wasn't even warmer last year mid-Feb to mid-Apr. Basically, cold and dry with warm-ups just in time for a few storms so that they're rainers.

Maybe the constant misses to the north and south with snow swaths is making this year feel worse? Not sure.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From a poster on Amwx. Other observant eyes have noticed the striking parallels between this season and last.. :wacko:

Definitely true. Our memories can definitely be pretty short and skewed. People at work yesterday were talking like this was the worst day ever in the history of Aprils in Omaha. :rolleyes: Guarantee you I could go back and find multiple days in April with highs in the 30s....

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The Sunday system is trending a bit weaker and more progressive for Iowa.  The current timing looks poor, with the snow mostly falling between noon and supper.  A 2-4 inch snowfall looks like a decent guess.  Heavier snow may fall up in Minnesota again.  To get a bit more snow here, we would need the upper disturbance, which models show slowing and hanging back, to track more south.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I doubt it gets that warm in Omaha if this verifies:

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018040412/084/snku_acc.us_c.png

Most of Friday's will be gone Saturday anyway with sun angle. Even 35 with clear skies is enough to murder a snowpack in April.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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12z GEFS keeps backing down on the warm up mid/late next week, albeit very brief, some folks look to escape the cold pattern for a couple days....then its back to BN temps...blocking is just to strong ever since the Polar Vortex split caused by the record Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

 

Friday the 13th warmth...I-80 on north, fogettaboutit...

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_39.png

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Holy friggin hell. Lol. Unlikely to verify but that fact that models are showing it in mid April.....

From a potential record Friday for your city, to a another major snowstorm next week???  Holy crap...let's re-write history...

 

 

 

High temperature forecast by NWS in Minneapolis of 21°F would be the record coldest April monthly high temperature on record (since 1872) So, you could say the coldest day in April ever recorded in April is in the forecast.

 

DZ8ptguVAAEkQCF.jpg

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This is getting a bit scary. At this rate the lakes here are going to be frozen well into May. It’s going to be a 3 month summer.

I'll be honest with you, this year the northern tier may have the shortest period between "last flake" of this season vs "first flake" of next season.  There's a chance that the growing season in Canada and northern U.S. will be extremely short this year and could drastically effect commodities across North America.  Something is brewing and I believe it's tied into the solar minimum which is forthcoming.

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That system later in the period has the hallmarks of a prolific severe weather producer. Has excellent support from the EPS, and this particular Euro run(while timing is off slightly) has a significant severe weather event Thursday to our SW with a HSLC event over our area Friday. Obviously too far out to say anything for sure, but the consistency and type of 500mb pattern provides a base state favorable for severe weather.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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00z Euro still gun ho on a Blitz potential very close to our C MN posters with a classic powerhouse late Spring cutter in the extended for late next week.  00z EPS still showing a close call.

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_10.png

 

 

Anyone to the SE of the storm track is likely to torch for a day or two which will feel like summer.  In fact, 00z Euro showing temps surging into the 70's for IA/IL/MO on Friday the 13th.  Bust out the shorts, T's, "suns out, guns out"...meet ya at the Happy Hour local hot spot...

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DMX saying a Warning is possible for Sunday system with 6" possible in the Waterloo/Mason City corridor. Ill be home for this one so I say bring it on.

This is starting to remind me a bit of spring of '13 when we had that early May snowfall.

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There was a real reason why the QBO freaked out over the last couple of years and we're going to find out why soon I think. QBO is wind. Only thing I know that has the greatest effects on wind of any kind is the sun. Crazy stuff going to happen.

Typically, we see a 2-year cycle regarding the oscillation of the QBO so I'm thinking we see a -QBO next Autumn/Winter.  Best guess at this moment.

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Do me a favor nature, instead of a map like this during April, showcase your beauty next winter for at least 1 month so we can enjoy....appreciate it...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

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Might need to start a thread for the Sun/Mon system. It’s still looking legit.

 

From MPX:

Where the pivot point sets up between the WAA and FGEN band, the

GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are all similar with a strip of storm total

QPFs in the 0.6" to 0.7" range. This will again not be your

typical April snow, with the GFS showing a deep dendritic growth

zone ranging from 6k to 12k feet deep. We saw similar environments

with the April 2nd-3rd event and were able to achieve 15:1 and

higher snow ratios, and don`t see why this doesn`t happen again.

If you apply that 15:1 ratio to 0.6" to 0.7" of QPF, you quickly

run potential snow totals up into the 8-10" range. The ECMWF is

the farthest north with this band of heavier snow, taking it from

Morris down into the southwest Twin Cities metro.

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Might need to start a thread for the Sun/Mon system. It’s still looking legit.

 

From MPX:

Where the pivot point sets up between the WAA and FGEN band, the

GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are all similar with a strip of storm total

QPFs in the 0.6" to 0.7" range. This will again not be your

typical April snow, with the GFS showing a deep dendritic growth

zone ranging from 6k to 12k feet deep. We saw similar environments

with the April 2nd-3rd event and were able to achieve 15:1 and

higher snow ratios, and don`t see why this doesn`t happen again.

If you apply that 15:1 ratio to 0.6" to 0.7" of QPF, you quickly

run potential snow totals up into the 8-10" range. The ECMWF is

the farthest north with this band of heavier snow, taking it from

Morris down into the southwest Twin Cities metro.

Yeah models have been pretty consistent. DMX saying 6" possible for N IA as well.
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The euro continues to be keep the heavier snow on Sunday from Minneapolis eastward to Michigan, way north of what the GFS/GDPS have been showing.  The 00 euro was the driest yet for CR, showing only a quick inch or two during mid afternoon.  Unfortunately, the GFS is beginning to trend back north as well.

 

As extreme cold as this pattern is around here, we may end up getting very little snow out of it.  Let's move on.

 

Fortunately, it appears we will be moving on.  The euro keeps getting warmer for the 12th/13th period.  Last night's op run actually has us up to 80!!!  The ensemble mean has us up to 70, and then we stay in the 50s and 60s through day 15.  That's more like it.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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