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April Weather in the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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I didn't post anything for quite awhile between yesterday evening and this morning, yet Tim continued unabated.

 

Don't blame me.  :)

 

I was tracking along with the SEA NWS and Scott Sistek.    Lots of posts about record rainfall.

 

Did you know that OLM has also reached the 4th wettest April ever already... just like SEA.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was tracking along with the SEA NWS and Scott Sistek.    Lots of posts about record rainfall.

 

Did you know that OLM has also reached the 4th wettest April ever already... just like SEA.    :)

 

Yes. Because you posted it. 

 

Tracking something is one thing. Being needlessly repetitive is another.

A forum for the end of the world.

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12z ensembles hint at a pretty big warmup toward the end of the month. After the first half has been dominated by mild and wet.

 

We are going to be due for some cool weather going into May!

 

Dry and cool would be lovely.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like a ULL has spun up along the frontal band to the south.   

 

This appears to be allowing for some offshore flow up here.    Broken clouds are moving from east to west here now.    

 

This feature down south is more pronounced than previous runs had shown.   The 12Z ECMWF is showing what seems to be actually happening now and also paints a different picture for tomorrow in the Seattle area.   Instead of putting the heavy rain right over Seattle (like the WRF)... the heavy rain tomorrow morning on the 12Z ECMWF is farther south and the Seattle area is more shadowed.    Still wet... but not even close to what the WRF is showing.     

 

 

ecmwf_precip_06_washington_6.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just went through the 12Z GFS... a much more typical and pleasant pattern coming up. It basically starts on Wednesday. Very nice.

 

Now lets crush some more rainfall records tomorrow!

Lol, there’s nothing “typical” about a wavenumber 5 pattern. It’s pretty stupid looking, actually.

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Lol, there’s nothing “typical” about a wavenumber 5 pattern. It’s pretty stupid looking, actually.

I meant the tangible weather shown here is much more typical for April. Some systems skirting by with rain but lots of dry weather in between.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Doubt we’ll be that lucky. It’s either gonna dry out and start torching non-stop, or remain cool and unsettled.

Yeah... that is my sense as well. But dry and cool would be lovely.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12z ensembles hint at a pretty big warmup toward the end of the month. After the first half has been dominated by mild and wet.

 

We are going to be due for some cool weather going into May!

Careful when using long range ensemble means in high wavenumber patterns. Often times it smoothes out the individual waves as they pass.

 

Models are still under-estimating Indo-Pacific convection after 4/22, so watch for a gradual trend to upstream amplification over the coming days.

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If you could bet on weather I would put money on above average summer temps for the PNW. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I meant the tangible weather shown here is much more typical for April. Some systems skirting by with rain but lots of dry weather in between.

Oh, I see.

 

Though, a “normal” pattern would still register zero in terms of 500mb height anomalies and temperatures, so verbatim it’s still not a normal pattern. It probably won’t ever come close to being “normal” or stable this year, either.

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Oh, I see.

 

Though, a “normal” pattern would still register zero in terms of 500mb height anomalies and temperatures, so verbatim it’s still not a normal pattern.

 

 

I understand.   You know way more about that me.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If you could bet on weather I would put money on above average summer temps for the PNW. 

 

I would bet on a dry summer more than warm.... but those seem to go hand-in-hand lately.

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If it happens enough years in a row we will just have to start calling it average.

 

The 1991-2020 means are going to be shocking.

 

Just like with the increased rainfall.   I am starting to think the rainfall average in the Seattle area may have just jumped up for good and this is the new normal.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Careful when using long range ensemble means in high wavenumber patterns. Often times it smoothes out the individual waves as they pass.

 

Models are still under-estimating Indo-Pacific convection after 4/22, so watch for a gradual trend to upstream amplification over the coming days.

I like the sounds of upstream amplification. Would be nice to see a sharp offshore ridge make a return.

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Really wish I would have put money on the +/- of 15 1/2 rebounds for Russell Westbrook the other day. Not often you have that easy a bet in life. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It’s raining and foggy here. Should I start freaking out?

 

When it goes on for two weeks straight and set records then you can start mentioning it.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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When it goes on for two weeks straight and set records then you can start mentioning it.

The 1km WRF dumps 8-9” of rain here tonight. You can stop complaining now. ;)

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The 1km WRF dumps 8-9” of rain here tonight. You can stop complaining now. ;)

 

I find focused, heavy rain interesting and enjoyable.

 

For example... if it had been sunny and dry all of April and then we had a record setting wet day.     But that has not been the case here this month.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just like with the increased rainfall. I am starting to think the rainfall average in the Seattle area may have just jumped up for good and this is the new normal.

That’s what you were saying back in 2010-12 regarding the cool summers. #myopic

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That’s what you were saying back in 2010-12 regarding the cool summers. #myopic

 

Obviously I am being a little sarcastic here.   I doubt that the annual rainfall average in Seattle just jumped up from 38 to 45 inches and is permanent.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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For the Central and Southern Willamette Valley the summers of 2010-2012 collectively were closer to the historical average. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Aren’t they going to be? You have predicted a cool summer out here the last three years now.

That’s not true, though I guess all the misery just blends together after awhile.

 

I predicted:

 

1) A torch in 2015 (verified).

 

2) A Niña flip (warm JJA/cool JAS) in 2016 (verified).

 

3) A cool JJA last year (busted). But I still forecasted a progressive warming through the summer, opposite of 2016.

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That’s not true. I predicted:

 

1) A torch in 2015 (verified)

 

2) A Niña flip (warm JJA/cool JAS) in 2016 (verified)

 

3) A cool JJA last year (busted). But I still forecasted a progressive warming through the summer, opposite of 2016.

I just remember a lot of 1983/93 analog talk. Maybe it was moreso with the last two. I think the 2015 torch was well forecasted.

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Very gusty out. KLMT getting gusts around 50mph. Loud at my place.

 

This is around the time of year now where any 50-60 gusts that are not from thunderstorms are pretty uncommon, possibly in the rare category.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I just remember a lot of 1983/93 analog talk. Maybe it was moreso with the last two. I think the 2015 torch was well forecasted.

Last year, I did get screwed up by the effects of the double +QBO/pseudo niño on the warm pool longitude, but 2016 was still a verified forecast..just not a pretty example of one.

 

I did predict that June 2016 would be warm enough to keep JJA warmer than average, but that JAS would run cooler than average region-wide. I think that was a solid call, especially given how warm the globe was at the time.

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