April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Last year, I did get screwed up by the effects of the double +QBO/pseudo niño on the warm pool longitude, but 2016 was still a verified forecast..just not a pretty example of one.

 

I did predict that June 2016 would be warm enough to keep JJA warmer than average, but that JAS would run cooler than average region-wide. I think that was a solid call, especially given how warm the globe was at the time.

You have done fine overall. It would be nice to see a change from this persistent regime at some point, though. This year appeared to be getting on a very different track starting in February but now it is back to more of the same.

[Front Ranger]

I just remember a lot of 1983/93 analog talk. Maybe it was moreso with the last two. I think the 2015 torch was well forecasted.

 

He did not originally forecast a warm JJA in 2016.

[Phil]

He did not originally forecast a warm JJA in 2016.

Yes, I actually did.

 

You’ll never find a quote to the contrary.

[Jesse]

He did not originally forecast a warm JJA in 2016.

 

Do not want to get involved in your petty rivalry with Phil.

[ShawniganLake]

Filtered sun here this morning. Looks like we might actually get in on this next round of rain with the way the models have trended.

 

 

I couldn’t believe the difference between Victoria and Shawnigan on Friday. I was working down in the Landsdowne area and it was mostly dry. Got home to see it had rained close to 1.75” with 30mph wind gusts. The creek at south Shawnigan was high and muddy and there was water across several driveways.

 

Cold day today. Cloudy with a north wind. Currently 44F after a low of 37F.

[El Nina]

Go **** yourself.

Nobody ever said that. You have no platform here.

[TT-SEA]

Yes, I did. You’ll never find a quote to the contrary.

 

I remember you saying that June would mess with the summer forecast and JJA might be warmer than normal but JAS would end up cooler than normal.

 

August 2016 was much warmer than most of us thought though. 

[Jesse]

The 12z Euro is actually pretty dang nice overall.

[Phil]

Do not want to get involved in your petty rivalry with Phil.

He’s had a rough several months. Cool September, moderate niño, troughy December, cold January.

 

Brutal. I’ve never had a slump last that long.

[ShawniganLake]

Some dry and warm is kinda needed at this point. My mason bees are still very inactive and in 2016 they were started in February. My catnip looks really healthy though.

I wonder if we see another poor fruit crop this year here. Last year was very poor for the earlier flowering varieties. Some apples and many pears that I prune regularly were almost barren. Just not enough bees around.

[TT-SEA]

I couldn’t believe the difference between Victoria and Shawnigan on Friday. I was working down in the Landsdowne area and it was mostly dry. Got home to see it had rained close to 1.75” with 30mph wind gusts. The creek at south Shawnigan was high and muddy and there was water across several driveways.

 

Cold day today. Cloudy with a north wind. Currently 44F after a low of 37F.

 

What is the average annual rainfall difference between your location and his location?

 

I was looking at street view images of that general area and the west side of Victoria up through Butchart Gardens looks very similar to this area out here... but the pics from his area look very different.   The trees and vegetation do not look nearly as lush... even when its green like it is now.

[Front Ranger]

Do not want to get involved in your petty rivalry with Phil.

 

No petty rivalry. Just facts. Phil has repeatedly shown a tendency towards re-writing history, and that definitely applies to summer 2016.

[Phil]

I remember you saying that June would mess with the summer forecast and JJA might be warmer than normal but JAS would end up cooler than normal.

 

August 2016 was much warmer than most of us thought though.

Yeah, Flatiron is living in his fantasy world, as usual.

 

Those two weeks in August did taint the aesthetics somewhat, though. Amazing what a brief warm pool MJO wave can do to the averages when timed properly.

[Jesse]

I wonder if we see another poor fruit crop this year here. Last year was very poor for the earlier flowering varieties. Some apples and many pears that I prune regularly were almost barren. Just not enough bees around.

That’s sad. I think it might be more related to the widespread downturn in bee populations than the weather. But I could be wrong.

[TT-SEA]

I wonder if we see another poor fruit crop this year here. Last year was very poor for the earlier flowering varieties. Some apples and many pears that I prune regularly were almost barren. Just not enough bees around.

 

We had an absolute banner crop of apples in 2016.    Our apple tree did not even flower last spring.   We got nothing.   

 

I read that after a huge production year... apple trees will often take a year off.   My other thought was the lack of bees.   We had lots of below freezing weather here in 2016-17 so we were thinking we would have another good crop and then did not get a single apple.  

 

This year will be interesting.   We should be due for another good crop.  

[Phil]

No petty rivalry. Just facts. Phil has repeatedly shown a tendency towards re-writing history, and that definitely applies to summer 2016.

You have no facts, dude. Now that I think of it, I’ve never seen you present facts in a debate. Like, ever.

 

You do have a tendency to rewrite history, move goalposts, and take people’s words out of context, though. It’s your specialty.

[Front Ranger]

I remember you saying that June would mess with the summer forecast and JJA might be warmer than normal but JAS would end up cooler than normal.

 

August 2016 was much warmer than most of us thought though. 

 

Yes, that is what he said after it became clear June would probably end up warm. Whatever...Phil will say what Phil will say. 

[El Nina]

I wonder if we see another poor fruit crop this year here. Last year was very poor for the earlier flowering varieties. Some apples and many pears that I prune regularly were almost barren. Just not enough bees around.

It has really been lame lately. They say mason bees are a great way to combat the loss of honeybees, but when even they can't do well you know its not good.

[Front Ranger]

He’s had a rough several months. Cool September, moderate niño, troughy December, cold January.

 

Brutal. I’ve never had a slump last that long.

 

 

Moderate Nino? That was an offhand comment I made like a year ago. You're reaching.

 

The only recent bust I had was January, which you busted even harder on. I forecasted the November western torch, which you did not, and I also did well in December and February. I also mentioned in early February that I thought the weather would turn cooler and drier for awhile. So overall, last few months haven't been that bad.

 

Ok, record set straight. Carry on.

[TT-SEA]

The 12z Euro is actually pretty dang nice overall.

 

That trough at 240 hours changed your entire opinion.   

[Jesse]

That trough at 240 hours changed your entire opinion.

I actually posted that before I saw the hour 240 trough.

 

The pattern on the whole is nice. Much sunnier and drier overall but still interspread with cool periods. Offshore ridging looks to make a return which would be great news.

[Front Ranger]

You have no facts, dude. Now that I think of it, I’ve never seen you present facts in a debate. Like, ever.

 

That's ridiculous and false. Just stop. 

 

You referenced 1993/1983 analogs a lot in late spring 2016, talking about the pattern going into summer. Many of us remember that. There's a fact for you.

[TT-SEA]

I actually posted that before I saw the hour 240 trough.

 

The pattern on the whole is nice. Much sunnier and drier overall but still interspread with cool periods. Offshore ridging looks to make a return which would be great news.

 

I agree.

[Front Ranger]

That trough at 240 hours changed your entire opinion.   

 

Looks like another quick-hitter.

[Phil]

 

Moderate Nino? That was an offhand comment I made like a year ago. You're reaching.

 

The only recent bust I had was January, which you busted even harder on. I forecasted the November western torch, which you did not, and I also did well in December and February. I also mentioned in early February that I thought the weather would turn cooler and drier for awhile. So overall, last few months haven't been that bad.

 

Ok, record set straight. Carry on.

Cognitive dissonance. I love it.

 

December was ridgy. Only one of us forecasted this.

 

[ShawniganLake]

That’s sad. I think it might be more related to the widespread downturn in bee populations than the weather. But I could be wrong.

I’m not an expert but could be a bit of both. If you have a tree flower just as a cool wet period begins the bees could be inactive when you need the pollination to occur.

[Phil]

You made several posts calling for a moderate niño. In reality it was a moderate niña.

 

You called for a cool September. It ended up a top-10 warmest September on record.

 

Should I carry on?

[Jesse]

You made several posts calling for a moderate niño. It ended up being a moderate niña.

 

You called for a cool September. It ended up a top-10 warmest September on record.

 

Should I carry on?

 

No, please take it to a different thread or to PM.

 

That way Flatiron will still get the daily debate he came here looking for and none of us will have to see it.

[Phil]

No, please take it to a different thread or to PM.

My fuse is short today.

[Front Ranger]

My fuse is short today.

 

Yes, and you're the one obviously pushing for a debate. 

 

Jesse was the one who originally called you out on your summer forecasts, not me. Take your pettiness elsewhere.

[Phil]

Yes, and you're the one obviously pushing for a debate.

 

Jesse was the one who originally called you out on your summer forecasts, not me. Take your pettiness elsewhere.

Don’t even try. You commented first, I just corrected you.

 

BTW, both Jesse and Tim agree with my recollection, not yours. So either your memory just sucks a**, or you’re making crap up.

[Timmy Supercell]

We had an absolute banner crop of apples in 2016.    Our apple tree did not even flower last spring.   We got nothing.   

 

I read that after a huge production year... apple trees will often take a year off.   My other thought was the lack of bees.   We had lots of below freezing weather here in 2016-17 so we were thinking we would have another good crop and then did not get a single apple.  

 

This year will be interesting.   We should be due for another good crop.  

 

K-Falls was swarming with bees both last year and in 2016. I know because both years I got stung by yellow jackets (unprovoked as well). Even a couple of times I found myself surrounded in a large group of bumble bees just a couple homes down from my home last June. That's as healthy as things can get down here. Thankfully the bumbles were kind enough to let me pass.

[ShawniganLake]

What is the average annual rainfall difference between your location and his location?

 

I was looking at street view images of that general area and the west side of Victoria up through Butchart Gardens looks very similar to this area out here... but the pics from his area look very different. The trees and vegetation do not look nearly as lush... even when its green like it is now.

Shawnigan averages right around 50” annually. I believe the extreme SE corner of Victoria is in the 20-24” range annually. Though I don’t know a good long term station off the top of my head. Butchart garden area is likely in the 36-40” range I would guess. A lot of the rocky hillsides have patches of Garry oak ecosystems which are generally grasslands and Garry oak trees, like what you see in his pictures. Very different looking than the thick Douglas fire forests that dominate most of southern Vancouver Island. There are areas that look very similar to his yard, about as far north as Nanaimo. The Shawnigan Lake area is almost entirely Douglas fir, probably second growth, as this was a logging and mill town many decades ago.

[Phil]

That's ridiculous and false. Just stop.

 

You referenced 1993/1983 analogs a lot in late spring 2016, talking about the pattern going into summer. Many of us remember that. There's a fact for you.

You’re dumber than a doornail. I referenced them as tropical forcing analogs, not as analogs for local PNW weather conditions.

 

Do you understand the difference? If not, then I’d recommend getting a lobotomy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Personal question. I am thinking of coming up to Vancouver Island the end of August. Probably during the week. No area in particular, is that peak tourist season? Is it hard to get a room or campsite even if I book now? Just started looking, so any tips would be appreciated.

[Front Ranger]

Cognitive dissonance. I love it.

 

December was ridgy. Only one of us forecasted this.

 

 

Ok Phil, this is the last post I'm going to make on this subject. 

 

You want actual facts? Here is exactly what I said on 11/2/17 about December and winter precip.

 

December

 

Strong signal for cold across the northern tier of the U.S., with the cold anomalies centered in the northern plains/upper Midwest. Warm across much of the southern tier. Anomalously high heights over the Aleutians, with the polar vortex likely spending some time in northern Canada. -1 to -3 anomalies predicted in the PNW, with northern areas likely to see the greatest cold. Decent chance this is the coldest month of the winter for New England.

 

Precipitation:

 

There is an above average chance that this winter ends up drier than normal for much of the West Coast and northern plains. Near normal precip for the Great Basin/Rockies, and wetter than normal storm track along southern plains and lower Midwest, which should be the battle ground between warmth/cold.

 

I also said on 11/2 that if "November ends up warm, I'd favor 1954, 1962, 1989, 1995, 2007 and 2013" as analogs. 

 

[Front Ranger]

Don’t even try. You commented first, I just corrected you.

 

BTW, both Jesse and Tim agree with my recollection, not yours. So either your memory just sucks a**, or you’re making crap up.

 

My memory is excellent. 

 

I remember what you said after it became clear June would be warm. And I remember what you said before that as well.

[Timmy Supercell]

You’re dumber than a doornail. I referenced them as tropical forcing analogs, not as analogs for local PNW weather conditions.

 

Do you understand the difference? If not, then I’d recommend getting a lobotomy.

 

Ouch

[TT-SEA]

Another beautiful April afternoon in the Twin Cities!  

 

[Phil]

My memory is excellent.

 

I remember what you said after it became clear June would be warm. And I remember what you said before that as well.

Your memory is terrible, and I can prove it. Recall that merely 20 minutes ago, you claimed that your moderate niño call was a “single, off-hand comment”.

 

Whoops. To the contrary, you actually debated me over it, and tried to back it up using a slew of dubious statistics.