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April Weather in the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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:lol:

 

Moderate Nino? That was an offhand comment I made like a year ago. You're reaching.

Just an offhand comment, eh?

 

Your memory is awesome!

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Personal question. I am thinking of coming up to Vancouver Island the end of August. Probably during the week. No area in particular, is that peak tourist season? Is it hard to get a room or campsite even if I book now? Just started looking, so any tips would be appreciated.

Shouldn’t be tough if you are looking during the week. Weekends can get busy. Long weekends are nuts.
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You want actual facts? I also said on 11/2 that if "November ends up warm, I'd favor 1954, 1962, 1989, 1995, 2007 and 2013" as analogs.

Lol, those years had the opposite pattern compared to November 2017. You’re a godawful forecaster.

 

Nov 2017 (top) vs your supposed “analogs” (bottom). :lol:

 

PbK3AA7.png

 

8ir1i8Y.png

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Mid-April afternoon in Kansas City:

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kmci&num=25&raw=0&banner=off

 

If they hang on to their 30 degree maximum, it will blow away the late season benchmark (a high of 36 on 4/20/1918). Latest sub-freezing max on the books is 4/9/1973. Incidentally, Kansas City just saw their latest maximum in the 30's on record (39 on 5/3/2013) during that historic May snowstorm on the plains. 

 

I keep running into 2013 numbers while researching the cold weather in the plains & Midwest lately (and the European cold in early March, for that matter). Interesting that both springs followed major SSW events. 

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You're trying way too hard. And resorting to insults, as you often do. Probably time to take a break.

No, that was too easy. I anticipated the return of your sociopathic tendencies, and decided to take screenshots of all your “forecasts” since January 2016.

 

It was an epic waste of an afternoon for me, but now I’m loaded with ammo. Enough to last a lifetime. I’m literally just getting started. :lol:

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I did not use those analogs to forecast Nov 2017.

 

Give it a rest, Phil.

You said if November ends up “warm”.

 

I wouldn’t call this warm. Looks average to me with a background -PNA. Certainly not structurally homogenous to the years you mentioned.

 

PbK3AA7.png

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Mid-April afternoon in Kansas City:

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kmci&num=25&raw=0&banner=off

 

If they hang on to their 30 degree maximum, it will blow away the late season benchmark (a high of 36 on 4/20/1918). Latest sub-freezing max on the books is 4/9/1973. Incidentally, Kansas City just saw their latest maximum in the 30's on record (39 on 5/3/2013) during that historic May snowstorm on the plains.

 

I keep running into 2013 numbers while researching the cold weather in the plains & Midwest lately (and the European cold in early March, for that matter). Interesting that both springs followed major SSW events.

If only we could pull off a major SSW during the retracted phase of the IPWP cycle, you guys would be the ones in the center of the action. The last time it happened was in the winter 1978/79. Ages ago, and that wasn’t a very powerful event. The last time it happened during a solar minimum that overlapped with said IPWP retraction..probably the late 19th/early 20th century.

 

I’m betting it was January 1899, lol. Only half joking, as these big league SSW events aren’t very common to begin with.

 

The IPWP is retracting now, though (following the typical response time-lag to solar forcing on the BDC). It reached its maximum eastward longitude in 2015 and 2017, but since October the retraction phase has definitely begun and its center is now ~ 10 degrees west of where it was in 2015.

 

It should officially enter “retracted” territory in 2020, following the El Niño, in my opinion. So any SSW events in the early 2020s will be rockin’. Not to mention the high likelihood of a protracted, multi-year mod/strong La Niña during that timeframe.

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The longer this upcoming solar minimum lasts, the higher the chances for a stretch of epic western winters in the early 2020s, IMO. In particular, the AP index/solar wind is probably the most important factor..if the geomagnetic conditions are even marginally weaker during the next solar cycle, it could have large implications.

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In recent decades, the correlation between geomagnetic forcing on the upper atmosphere has correlated fantastically to PNW winter climate.

 

Check this out (solar flares by year). Note that much of a winter’s stratospheric photochemistry is preconditioned by the solar wind over the previous year...so the flare activity in 2017 would technically precondition the stratosphere for the 2017/18 winter, etc.

 

2014 was the geomagnetic peak of SC24, and it preconditioned the stratosphere for winter 2014/15.

 

2008 was the geomagnetic minimum, and it preconditioned the stratosphere for winter 2008/09.

 

EScTSPt.png

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So far, we’re tracking right along with 2008 regarding geomagnetic/flare activity.

 

Difference is we were closer to the actual solar minimum in 2008 than we are now. The minimum for this cycle is probably in 2020.

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There was undoubtedly something major in late January 1899 if the first few days of February were any indication. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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No, that was too easy. I anticipated the return of your sociopathic tendencies, and decided to take screenshots of all your “forecasts” since January 2016.

 

It was an epic waste of an afternoon for me, but now I’m loaded with ammo. Enough to last a lifetime. I’m literally just getting started. :lol:

 

This is good stuff.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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So far, we’re tracking right along with 2008 regarding geomagnetic/flare activity.

 

Difference is we were closer to the actual solar minimum in 2008 than we are now. The minimum for this cycle is probably in 2020.

 

Yeah, this minimum is clearly going to be deeper and longer than any in 100+ years.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Yeah, this minimum is clearly going to be deeper and longer than any in 100+ years.

 

 

Its a 1911-1913 repeat... 1,023 spotless days. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Shawnigan averages right around 50” annually. I believe the extreme SE corner of Victoria is in the 20-24” range annually. Though I don’t know a good long term station off the top of my head. Butchart garden area is likely in the 36-40” range I would guess. A lot of the rocky hillsides have patches of Garry oak ecosystems which are generally grasslands and Garry oak trees, like what you see in his pictures. Very different looking than the thick Douglas fire forests that dominate most of southern Vancouver Island. There are areas that look very similar to his yard, about as far north as Nanaimo. The Shawnigan Lake area is almost entirely Douglas fir, probably second growth, as this was a logging and mill town many decades ago.

 

I'm at 23" this winter vs 30" at YYJ. Quantity of precipitation doesn't seem to play as much a role in this ecosystem as soil conditions and hours of sunlight. The Mount Doug/UVic area receives about the same amount of rain as this area but features more Douglas fir forest cover. One of the largest garry oak meadows is up around Duncan which is probably closer to your area in terms of annual precipitation.

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The longer this upcoming solar minimum lasts, the higher the chances for a stretch of epic western winters in the early 2020s, IMO. In particular, the AP index/solar wind is probably the most important factor..if the geomagnetic conditions are even marginally weaker during the next solar cycle, it could have large implications.

 

The winters that occurred during the 3 most recent solar mins: 2010-11, 2009-10, 2008-09, 1996-97, 1995-96, 1985-86, and 1984-85.

 

The common theme has been major NH blocking.

 

M7hpChRK5o.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Personal question. I am thinking of coming up to Vancouver Island the end of August. Probably during the week. No area in particular, is that peak tourist season? Is it hard to get a room or campsite even if I book now? Just started looking, so any tips would be appreciated.

 

The end of July / start of August can be really busy, especially in places like Tofino or Parksville. Coming at the end of August will definitely give you more options. Victoria has tons of hotels/airbnb units, so it wouldn't be hard to find a place here. 

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Snow flakes now. Obviously too warm to stick yet at nearly 40 degrees.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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MSP NWS office has recorded 24.3 inches of snow so far in April.   Officially 23.2 at the airport.   

 

That is officially the snowiest April on record there.

 

2018 - 23.2

1982 - 21.8

2002 - 20.2

2013 - 17.9

1928 - 16.9

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MSP NWS office has recorded 24.3 inches of snow so far in April.   Officially 23.2 at the airport.   

 

That is officially the snowiest April on record there.

 

2018 - 23.2

1982 - 21.8

2002 - 20.2

2013 - 17.9

1928 - 16.9

 

3 out of the 5 snowiest appears to be within the last 20 years. 

 

#WeatherIsGreatAgain

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Getting very breezy all of a sudden.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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For those keeping score at home... SEA for April.     If tomorrow does not add much then it will probably be tough to reach the top.   Need another 1.85 inches.

 

1991 - 6.53

2013 - 5.89

1996 - 5.37

2018 - 4.68

1993 - 4.54

1997 - 4.32

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What was the last winter/spring that was this N/S with precip? I don't remember a year since I moved here in 1989 when there was this much of a difference between Washington and Oregon.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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What was the last winter/spring that was this N/S with precip? I don't remember a year since I moved here in 1989 when there was this much of a difference between Washington and Oregon.

 

To be fair... PDX is at 3.10 inches for April which is about 200% of normal.   Its not like its been dry down there this month.

 

PDX is also just about normal for the rainy season and for 2018... within a inch of both.

 

And Salem is at 4.68 inches for April... which is exactly the same as SEA.     Salem is also above normal now for the rainy season and for 2018.   This is also the 7th wettest April ever at Salem... with a period of record going way back to 1893.

 

I would say there has been no north-south gradient at all this month.   PDX has just been a little drier than Seattle, Olympia, and Salem.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Today was beautiful. I got to mow for the first time this year!

 

Nice!   I was thinking it looked pretty decent farther north today.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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south winds rattled the screens.  trees and bushes are "dancing" . temps fallen to mid 40s.  April this is not.

 

 

April this is!  

 

April can be cold and windy sometimes.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This ULL was supposed to head up towards Moses Lake and put the Seattle area in some significant wrap around rain tomorrow.

 

Now it appears to heading directly over Seattle and the wrap around is much farther west tomorrow morning.

 

1ref_t1sfc_f11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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