3/11 - 3/12 Winter Storm

[Tom]

We are getting into the 48-60 hour period of a possible significant winter storm shaping up for the Midwest/Lower Lakes/OV.  18z NAM coming in very robust with snowfall.  DTX may be very close to breaking their all-time snow fall record this season with this storm.  There still is a lot of discrepancies between the models.  The storm system hasn't been sampled yet by the balloon network so expect shifts on the storm track.

[DominicR]

Wow go NAM.

 

WPC EPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1141 AM EDT SUN MAR 09 2014
THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY CONVERGED ON THE TRACK OF THE COMPLEX WAVE CROSSING THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH ITS MOST MARKED SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT BEING A STRIPE OF HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.

 

 

[DominicR]

I wasent paying much attention to this but just checked 12z GFS and it's pretty close. What is ORD record? 81 inches? I think we could break number 1 with this if I am not mistaken. We are at 75 inches and 3rd place right? Get mixed up with meterological and seasonal snowfall. I think seasonal would be 89 inches is record.

[Tom]

ORD is at 75.5" for the season and the record is 89.7" for the season.  So Dom, we may be getting real close to breaking the all-time record if we can get a significant snowstorm out of this one.

[DominicR]

D**n back to 50 on Friday. Well if we get that snowcover it will probably be lower 40s.

[Money]

ORD is at 75.5" for the season and the record is 89.7" for the season.  So Dom, we may be getting real close to breaking the all-time record if we can get a significant snowstorm out of this one.

 

Plenty of chances down the line yet. Especially if GFS is right.

[Tom]

Phasing is going to be the key ingredient here and when it phases to produce these kind of totals the NAM is spitting out.

[Tom]

18z GFS weaker and farther south...

[Money]

18z rgem

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif

[DominicR]

D**n a buzz kill. Still a bit to go though. A more amped phased is key as Tom mentioned.

[Money]

RGEM colored map

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

 

Looks a TAD SE of the NAM but a bit more north than the 18z GFS.

[Tom]

RGEM also looks like it is trying to phase as well.  Until this comes onshore, we wont get a definitive outcome.  Still about 24+ hours to go until we see model solutions come into agreement.

[james1976]

major difference in models

[indianajohn]

Phil Schwartz has the heavier snow east of us with most of us in the 1-4" range. I hate it when start forecasting amounts this far out

[FV-Mike]

Saw the same thing, had 10 inches down in Indianapolis. He was using the Euro model

[DominicR]

RGEM at 54hr similar to NAM....

 

[DominicR]

EURO from Phil:

 

 

[Tom]

The trend has been NW with a phased system earlier which amps up quicker.  Would like to see more runs before jumping on board with the NAM's totals.  As Money said, 12z Euro Ensembles were NW of OP run.

[Tom]

I would be absolutely delighted to see a solution the Euro had about 10 days out that I posted.  It would make a lot of faces happy on this forum!

[MKEstorm]

I would be absolutely delighted to see a solution the Euro had about 10 days out that I posted.  It would make a lot of faces happy on this forum!

 

Except for the24weatherman! LOL!

[Sciascia]

The trend has been NW with a phased system earlier which amps up quicker. Would like to see more runs before jumping on board with the NAM's totals. As Money said, 12z Euro Ensembles were NW of OP run.

How many models have gone NW? If it's only the NAM & Euro ensembles, wouldn't call it a "trend" just yet. Although a NAM solution would be happiness.

[Scott26]

RGEM at 54hr similar to NAM....

I always thought the RGEM only went to 48 hours...

[DominicR]

I always thought the RGEM only went to 48 hours...

 

I know same here. Just found that out today.

[Geos]

HPC probability of 4" and 6". 3 Day

 

[tim the weatherman]

according to abc 7 chicago weather that the heaviest will be south and east of the city of chicago.

[Money]

according to abc 7 chicago weather that the heaviest will be south and east of the city of chicago.

 

Yeah, it's gonna be 70 and sunny.

[Money]

21z SREF Plumes up to 6 for Chicago. 

[Sciascia]

21z SREF Plumes up to 6 for Chicago.

That's the mean, right? Just curious, what's the range?

[DominicR]

NAM looking good still.

[Money]

Highest: 11.93

Lowest: 0.02

 

Mean: 5.90

 

Majority are over 4 with about 6 of them showing less than 2.

[DominicR]

Yeah, it's gonna be 70 and sunny.

 

[Money]

Even with the NAM being weaker/south still looks like 6+ coming this run.

[Scott26]

NAM is definitely further south. Still going to be a nice hit for Chicago and Detroit though.

[Tom]

00z NAM...

[midwest buildit]

nam still looks good for me. ill take it !!!

[Scott26]

Looks like the NAM will continue to correct south on future runs. A phased, more amped solution is still possible similar to the January 4th-5th storm which models didn't show a phase until less than 24 hours from the event. Still the more unlikely scenario and the Euro and the GFS most likely have the correct track with some slight north or south shifts still possible.

[DominicR]

Looks like the NAM will continue to correct south on future runs. A phased, more amped solution is still possible similar to the January 4th-5th storm which models didn't show a phase until less than 24 hours from the event. Still the more unlikely scenario and the Euro and the GFS most likely have the correct track with some slight north or south shifts still possible.

 

Well because it has on this run doesent mean it's gonna be trend. It's awfully close.

[Iowawx]

Yet another Chicago special. My guess is MAYBE an inch here. How many times has this happened this winter? A lot! Hopefully this comes north by about 50-100 miles.

[Scott26]

Well because it has on this run doesent mean it's gonna be trend. It's awfully close.

Very true, but we have all seen this before. NAM usually the 18Z shows a extreme amped solution and future runs start to correct south. If the 00Z GFS looks more like the NAM that will definitely be a good sign.

[Money]

RGEM is farther NW than the NAM and about 4 MB stronger through HR 24.