3/11 - 3/12 Winter Storm

[Money]

About 1-2 MB stronger and a tad farther N through HR 36 compared to 0z NAM.

[East Dubzz]

according to abc 7 chicago weather that the heaviest will be south and east of the city of chicago.

As much as you would all like to rip on him, I think this is the way to lean at this point, which could be subject to change, because the models still obviously don't have a great handle on this yet. This one doesn't look like it's gonna be too much for me unless that northern stream can somehow give me something, but if it does, that probably wouldn't bode as well for you Chicagoians because it would be a later phase.

[Tom]

00z WRF...

 

BTW, Microcast brought the heavier snow band farther north from its previous 5:00pm model run.  Could be a trend, lets see if the GGEM/EURO show something similar.

[East Dubzz]

I hate how late the model runs are now. Definitely can't stay up for the Euro, and even the GGEM is pretty late.

[Money]

HR 48 

 

NAM: 998 W. MO

RGEM: 1001 Near STL

GFS: 998 S. OK/N.TX

 

lol

[East Dubzz]

HR 48 

 

NAM: 998 W. MO

RGEM: 1001 Near STL

GFS: 998 S. OK/N.TX

 

lol

Should we expect any different? Lol. The models are terrible this year!

[Geos]

 <GFS

 

NAM

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

 

I believe Bastardi was rooting for a track to crush State College. lol

[East Dubzz]

Wow that run of the GFS is weak sauce. Either way, gonna be another solid storm for the East Coast. Been a real fun year out there for them.

[gosaints]

Yawn

[DominicR]

NAM north.

[Geos]

3-5" from Chicago on eastwards.

 

[DominicR]

I will take it. It be nice if it blow up a bit quicker.

[indianajohn]

Any chance of les?

[Money]

rgem is n/stronger through hr 24 thus far than 0z rgem

[Money]

RGEM

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif

[DominicR]

 

RGEM

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif

 

 

Link me.

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html

[DominicR]

12z more north/amped. This is turning into a Chicago-Detroit special. A "texas style panhandle hooker"

[Money]

3-4 for Chicago.

 

7-8 for Detroit 

 

Slower/stronger. Trended towards the NAM.

[The Snowman]

Models have the bias to be too fast with systems, so this latest development isn't too surprising.

[Geos]

Any chance of les?

 

There's not enough of a temp difference for any significant Delta Ts. Probably shut down for the season. You should be good for some convective snow - maybe.

[Iowawx]

If only this thing can blow up faster and trend slightly NW, I will be happy

[Geos]

GGEM seems to be running late today. At least on Wxbell.

[Tom]

Skilling going with 3-7"...

 

Edit: His RPM model showed LES in WI/IL

[Money]

993.8 in S. IN at HR 48 on the 12z euro

 

N of what it was on the 3-09-12z run

[Geos]

One of the more aggressive models.

 

[Tom]

ORD will most likely be in 3rd place overall after this system unless something funky happens and we can get clobbered but I doubt it.

[Tom]

12z Euro complete miss for N IL...LOL  Is this another debacle forthcoming on the Euro like the storm 2 Saturday's ago???

[Tom]

I think what might be happening on the Euro is the precip shield is wrapping to close to the SLP compared to what the other models are doing.

[Tony]

I haven't been following this storm the past few days as I was in sunny Florida and just got back but I am surprised to see the NW trend on most of the modeling. The NAM has been bullish as usual but does have some backing from some of the models except the Euro. The Euro has been very conservative with qpf most of this winter so I would discount it at this time.

 

The question on everyones mind is how far NW this storm can go. Best guess for me is I don't have a clue. Seasonable trends tell you more NW, the winter trend has been SE as we get closer to the storm, where does the baro zone setup shop and will the northern stream force this storm further south?  

 

Since all of you are better educated then me when it comes to knowing the weather it will be interesting to hear your thoughts.

 

After being in Florida I am surely ready for warm weather but if we could get 1 major storm to close out this winter then I for one am willing to wait for the warmth. Anything less than 6" will really not do it so hope for this puppy to blow up quicker and trend stronger/further NW.

[Tom]

Was wondering were you went Tony.  I see you brought the warmth today from FL!  This system has been very tricky to track the past few days.  As of late, models are showing it phasing better for us to get a decent snowfall in N IL but the most significant snowfall will be east of here.

[Tony]

Was wondering were you went Tony.  I see you brought the warmth today from FL!  This system has been very tricky to track the past few days.  As of late, models are showing it phasing better for us to get a decent snowfall in N IL but the most significant snowfall will be east of here.

I wanted you guys get a taste of spring fever before the snow started to fly again!

[Tom]

It's going to be the tale of 2 seasons this week...Spring today, middle of winter Wednesday!

[Madtown]

looks like another miss to the south, oh well 50 sure feels good today

[Tony]

While we are waiting the 18z RAP has a 993 over roughly NW Kansas

[Tony]

15z SREF looks good as well.

[DominicR]

NAM looks pretty far north to already.

[Tony]

NAM looks pretty far north to already.

Yep, looking like the 18z RAP at 993mb so far

[DominicR]

NAM looks like its gonna be a sweet run here. Nice most of it at night. Will help with lower March ratios.

[Tony]

Maybe Milwaukee will get some Luv from this run.