3/11 - 3/12 Winter Storm

[Sciascia]

Skilling showed his updated RPM model that kicked out a band of 7-8" of snow right across N IL. IMO, I think N IL will be under a WSW tonight. High rez models are picking up better with this type of situation.

I'd say they'd play it safe with an advisory. Global models still aren't buying into NW ideas.

[Money]

As of 0z, there's a 1000.8 MB L just south of Wright, WY.

...

Actually, it's 999.8 in W. SD.

[Geos]

Current grid forecast has 1-3". Rain or rain/snow mix until 10pm before it starts snowing. Then ends everything about 6am.

[Trinomial]

I can see the grid changing if the gfs moves towards the nam in the 00z runs. I feel like the nam has a decent track record with these types of storms.

[Geos]

Any hunches what the NAM will do?

[Money]

NAM has started. I'm guessing a similar solution as 18z, maybe a hair south, but nothing drastic. All the high-res models are showing a stronger/nw solution. Dont think it changes.

[Tom]

Another reason why I buy a northern solution is bc this storm during both cycle 1 & 2 cut through N IL and a NAM solution may be the way to go.  This time there isn't much of a severe wx threat due to the cut-off LP near the Gulf of Mexico that is taking away that energy that would otherwise blossom out ahead of this system. 

 

During this 3rd cycle, the PV to the north is keeping the storm from cutting up through N IL this time around and the saving grace from a rain system.  I think NAM keeps the strength for 00z runs and track is similar to 18z.  It may come in even juicier as well.

[Scott26]

I'm going to attempt to extrapolate the NAM at 4 hours lol. Looks like the low is in the same position in Nebraska as 18Z maybe even a tick north. My guess this run is going to be about the same, but we will see.

[East Dubzz]

As much as I would love it to stay NW, I'm going to say it starts to slowly correct south tonight..

[Trinomial]

I think it stands ground.

[Money]

Through HR 7, similar as 18z in terms of track/strength.

 

Nearly identical. 

[DominicR]

It's gonna cut over Chicago.

[Money]

SREF is NW of 15z

[DominicR]

I am hearing from Harry:

 

The SREF has gotten more juicy and nw some as of 21z..

 

[East Dubzz]

From a local met:

 

[Money]

SREF is 6+ for the mean from MKE to ORD

 

Even 3-4 up here.

[DominicR]

[DominicR]

Looks 2mb stronger so far.

[Geos]

996 mb near Goodland at 12 hr. (12z tomorrow)

 

The way it's looking now, some members might have dry slot concerns.

[Scott26]

The 0Z NAM is going to hit someone really hard once again. May even be a bit stronger and a bit NW than last run.

[Geos]

994 mb a bit west of Topeka at 18 hr.

 

So far just the far north band of precip.

 

Big time baroclinic zone.

 

[Tom]

I told ya guys, high rez is the way to go with these dynamic systems.  I'm afraid this may cut too far NW and give us mixing issues up this way if it blows up earlier.  On the other hand, PV up north is strong enough to keep it south for N IL to be in the corridor of heavy snow.

[Tom]

This storm has it all...Summer time temps to the south, cold to the north...fuel the storm needs to become a significant system.

[DominicR]

[Geos]

I told ya guys, high rez is the way to go with these dynamic systems.  I'm afraid this may cut too far NW and give us mixing issues up this way if it blows up earlier.  On the other hand, PV up north is strong enough to keep it south for N IL to be in the corridor of heavy snow.

 

That's why I mentioned the dry slot issues.

[DominicR]

That's why I mentioned the dry slot issues.

 

Looking at Composite it's more robust and fills in more nicely.

[Tom]

D**n, 00z NAM showing 2"+ hr snowfall rates!

 

Check that...3"+ snowfall rates!  Holy cow!  Impressive run...

[DominicR]

Obliverated...

[East Dubzz]

Definitely doesn't seem any further north..maybe a little south, but pretty similar.

[DominicR]

We get hit hard with intial slug and then deformation band...past few events the intial slug miss us and keep heaviest south but this one looks to aim right at Chicago. Well according to NAM.

[Tom]

Holy crap...3.0-3.5" snowfall rates!  

[Money]

989.5 in W. IND

 

lol

[Geos]

Is the NAM smokin' something, or could it actually be right? Still will shift a bit more. This is bad timing for me...

 

Looking at sounding in NE IL there is a warm nose at ~800 mb leading up to 27 hours.

[Money]

12+ for ORD

[DominicR]

Definitely doesn't seem any further north..maybe a little south, but pretty similar.

 

Maybe not much furthur north but that good or we be dealing with mix potential here. It's filled in and def more robust.

[DominicR]

Ah 14+ and still not done!

[Tom]

If this transpires, LSD will be a standstill for morning commute with a howling wind off the lake.  Incredible if this run verifies.  This storm will be hitting at its peak around 4:00am - 7:00am.  Wednesday morning rush hour is going to be a standstill.  Insane if this verifies.

[Scott26]

My god the 0Z NAM... Near 5 inches per hour a one point lol. its probably off it's rocker, but what a run...

[Money]

30-35 mph winds, + 14 inches of snow

 

lol

[East Dubzz]

Maybe not much furthur north but that good or we be dealing with mix potential here. It's filled in and def more robust.

Yeah that thing BLEW UP in Northern Illinois and actually ended up being a better run for me than the 18z considering it came in just a tad further south initially. But, unfortunately, this is probably the NAM just being the NAM with QPF..