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April 8th/9th Snow Storm


bud2380

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We've been talking about this for days, so let's get it's own thread here.  Snow looks likely for much of the Dakota's, eastern NE, Minnesota, Iowa, WI, and N. Illinois Sunday into Monday.  

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040512/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

From Sunday into Sunday night, the 05.00z models continue to show
that a short wave trough will eject out of the Central and
Northern Plains. While the surface low is filling, the 800 to
500 mb frontogenesis will still tighten along and south of the
Interstate 94 corridor. Soundings indicate that the Dendritic
Growth Zone could potentially deepen as much as 250 mb at times.
This will increase the snow to liquid ratios into the 12-18 to 1.
Being this far out, it is surprising how tight the GEFS QPF
clustering is for this system. They have QPF ranging from 2 to 6
tenths of an inch. With the exception of Clark and Taylor
counties, thinking that much of the area will likely see snow
totals ranging from 3 to 7 inches. The highest snow totals
continue to look like they will occur west of the Mississippi
River. Like the previous system earlier this week, the rates
during the day will greatly effect the impacts during the day
Sunday. When the rates are high, the snow will accumulate on the
roads and then melt when the rates are less. Meanwhile, on Sunday
night as the roads cools, the snow will accumulate. This may be
when the greatest impacts will occur.

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GFS gets weaker and weaker for the south half of Iowa each run. I'm not completely sad about that.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018040518/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

That is a monster cutoff here.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Yeah, the weakening trend is there for sure.  This thing kinda drops its load in the Dakotas into southern Minnesota and then fills and dries up as it tails away to the ese.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The morning forecaster at MPX was saying how ratios would be 15:1 or higher and how that could lead to 8”+. The afternoon forecaster said the complete opposite and how ratios would be low. Currently 2-4” in the point for Sunday and still snowing Sunday evening. 3” looks like a safe call here.

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The last two runs of the euro have come back sw quite a bit, so the track is now favorable for CR/IC.  Unfortunately, the system has also weakened so much our snowfall hasn't inceased any.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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What is Euro showing for totals?

 

Two runs ago, the euro had a 6" band from Minneapolis eastward through Wisconsin and into Michigan.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_120.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hmm.  I just read DVN's discussion and they are saying this will be a dry snow, with ratios increasing to 16-20 to 1.  That's something you don't see too often in April.  It's a shame this thing couldn't maintain more strength.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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If the euro is right though 2-4/3-5” would be in order for Iowa City and CR. I’m trying to remember the last time I saw 4” or more in April. It’s probably been awhile. That said I have a feeling we’ll end up more like 1-3” here

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There's a pretty big difference between the models regarding snow placement.  The GFS has moved most of the snow up into Minnesota.  Meanwhile, the 12z UK has jumped way southwest and now has it from South Dakota through western Iowa, with very little snow from Minneapolis to Dubuque.  Last night's euro was in between.

 

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_96.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 12z Canadian just pulled a UK and moved much of the snow to South Dakota down through western Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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ICON still has a nice strip of 0.50" qpf through CR.  The 18z GFS dropped its good snow band down into CR as well, with 0.40".  However, as maps above show, other models have only a couple tenths.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z GFS doubled qpf for Iowa City/CR area from the 12z run.  I was surprised to see the Euro shift so much the past 2 runs.  I'd like to see it hold it's intensity longer.  I wouldn't mind seeing one last hurrah this weekend before we hopefully get into Spring. 

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00z runs of the NAM, GFS, and ICON all have 0.30-0.40 for the CR/IC area.  The 3k nam has 0.20-0.30" and the Canadian 0.20".

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yeah I saw that. That's the first model run to show that much so I'm not buying it. I'll never buy any models showing more than an inch for this. It'll be low ratio and sloppy, falling on ~40 degree surfaces.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The downward qpf trend continues.  The GFS is holding at 0.25-0.30", but the rest of the models have fallen to 0.10-0.20".  Full sampling at 00z only dried it out more.  By game time, we may be down to an inch.

 

Update:  And the 00z euro just dropped us from 2 inches down to 1.  Time to get this crap out of here and move on to spring.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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