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April 13th-16th Spring Bowling Ball Powerhouse


Tom
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On Friday the 13th, all the models are highlighting a classic large and powerful Spring storm system to eject out of the Rockies and "bowl" its way slowly to the east towards the MW/GL's.  Blocking is making tracking this system quite interesting.  It seems like each model run there is a different solution.  Let's discuss the storms winter and severe potential as this high impact storm rolls through the sub.

 

 

 

 

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Wow, this storm has the potential to be a monster!

 

I could not be any happier to be heading to Panama City, Florida this weekend after seeing these model runs LOL.

 

What a slap in the face it will be going from beautiful 70 degree weather to more Winter-like cold/wind and chances for snow here in Eastern Nebraska. Thankful I will get the chance to enjoy the warmup and be out of here before the weather changes again on Friday afternoon.

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Wow, this storm has the potential to be a monster!

 

I could not be any happier to be heading to Panama City, Florida this weekend after seeing these model runs LOL.

 

What a slap in the face it will be going from beautiful 70 degree weather to more Winter-like cold/wind and chances for snow here in Eastern Nebraska. Thankful I will get the chance to enjoy the warmup and be out of here before the weather changes again on Friday afternoon.

I'd be right there with ya if work allowed me to!  Believe me, I'd be in AZ already but I have too much on my plate.  I'm hoping to get outta town this week for a bit if I can.  Have fun down in FL!

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This storm is concerning. If we end up more on the warm side we’re going to have hydro issues. If we get the crazy snow totals the latest model runs are showing we might have snow OTG into May.....or at least frozen ground in May. The growing season will be cut way short.

00z Euro creeping your area with 12"+ just to your north...I think your in the game to score another big one.  

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Would bet on a slightly further NW solution just based on climo but this spring is hard to predict.  

Ya, no kidding, but that Hudson Bay block is looking rather strong.  It'll keep tracking this storm system fun and challenging.

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Looking at 2" of precip this week. I guess (pains me to say this) I would rather some of it be snow to reduced the flooding threat. The ground is rock hard.

WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

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be prepared for .5-1" of slush!!

Lol you think Omaha is gonna get snow at all? No, it's just going to be cloudy and windy!

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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I'd be right there with ya if work allowed me to! Believe me, I'd be in AZ already but I have too much on my plate. I'm hoping to get outta town this week for a bit if I can. Have fun down in FL!

Thanks Tom, my wife and I are heading down there to celebrate our 10 year anniversary. Looking forward to a few days of sun, warmth, and quality time on the beautiful beaches of the panhandle of Florida.

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NWS Hastings sure not talking too much about this.  Local forecast has a 30% of rain with maybe a slight chance of snow here.  If the Low goes over our head, we will be dry slotted.  Rarely do we ever get precipitation in this part of the state with that scenario, wraparound is usually little or nothing.  Low needs to go across Kansas for me to get more excited for moisture chances.

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On Friday the 13th, all the models are highlighting a classic large and powerful Spring storm system to eject out of the Rockies and "bowl" its way slowly to the east towards the MW/GL's.  Blocking is making tracking this system quite interesting.  It seems like each model run there is a different solution.  Let's discuss the storms winter and severe potential as this high impact storm rolls through the sub.

 

Geez, GEFS mean storm track looks eerily similar to last Nov's strong system. If it was a month earlier, or just any other year especially 2005, I'd have to worry about #realsnow. Like last week's Big Dog tho, I don't think I have much to worry about. 

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Here’s a very early prediction......massive t-storms in IA rob the cold sector precip and snow totals are much lower than currently shown.

This is a rather strong low so I don’t think it robs moisture to the north, but instead, produces a trowal feature and tansports moisture into the cold sector. This has the looks of a very mature storm. Gonna be a wild Fri-Sun period. Fun times.

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This is a rather strong low so I don’t think it robs moisture to the north, but instead, produces a trowal feature and tansports moisture into the cold sector. This has the looks of a very mature storm. Gonna be a wild Fri-Sun period. Fun times.

I’m all for some nice trowal action. I see the 12z Euro continues it’s trek south with the heavy snow.

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Friday night boomers across the MW/Plains...should be a real fun storm to track with a wide variety of wx on the table...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

 

 

 

Here's a neat CIPS Analog based severe probability map for Fri...

 

DaWUqAdU0AMFv1i.jpg

Tom, with a Low Pressure in that position, Central Nebraska typically does really well.  This model doesn't show much of anything for our area.  Will be interesting to watch during the week.  I would just as soon have liquid at this point, but we have no control over that.

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Tom, with a Low Pressure in that position, Central Nebraska typically does really well.  This model doesn't show much of anything for our area.  Will be interesting to watch during the week.  I would just as soon have liquid at this point, but we have no control over that.

Indeed, but not every SLP acts the same way...unfortunately, for your region, precip blossoms north and east of your area.  This is not a good storm for precip needs.  In fact, prob not over the next 10 days until later in the month towards the last week of April.

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Euro continues to look better than the GFS for severe weather potential in Iowa. Dews in the 60s for most of Iowa. CAPE over 2k in pockets. Forecast radar keeps most of the warm sector dry though except near the warm front, until late afternoon and evening when a solid line of storms forms and moves across the state.

Also has highs into the 80s here in Omaha and into western Iowa on Friday!

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Tom, with a Low Pressure in that position, Central Nebraska typically does really well.  This model doesn't show much of anything for our area.  Will be interesting to watch during the week.  I would just as soon have liquid at this point, but we have no control over that.

Thursday would be the better opportunity for central Nebraska, but unfortunately capping looks too strong(good CAPE though) and the main energy doesn't arrive until overnight which as Tom mentions causes the precip to form north and east of C. Nebraska

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Euro continues to look better than the GFS for severe weather potential in Iowa. Dews in the 60s for most of Iowa. CAPE over 2k in pockets. Forecast radar keeps most of the warm sector dry though except near the warm front, until late afternoon and evening when a solid line of storms forms and moves across the state.

Also has highs into the 80s here in Omaha and into western Iowa on Friday!

 

Yeah, 80s Friday to 30s and light snow Saturday... fun stuff.  The euro actually shows a Friday 12z temperature in the low 70s in se NE.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I might drive to the Twin Cities and visit my mom this wkend (at least that is what I will tell the wife) and go snow chasing...ecmwfued-null--usnc-156-C-frozentot10k.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Blocking keeps wrecking havoc in the modeling and the shifts south keep on coming on.  Looks like MSP is def in the game now to see a major snowstorm.  Gosh, that would be incredible to see a Top 3 snowstorm in April...I think you have a shot to smash records with this one.

 

On the severe wx side, looks like its primarily dwindling around IA and focusing more into parts of the S MW and moreso across the southern Plains.

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^^^ Always nice to see Ladysmith on a map.. :P

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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