April 13th-16th Spring Bowling Ball Powerhouse

[St Paul Storm]

The low is nearly stationary for 12 hours. Looks like a sleet storm for the ages. Gross.

[gosaints]

This cycle has partial RAOB sampling, but 12z will be more complete.

Beat me to it. Ping storm from hell

[CentralNebWeather]

My area of Central Nebraska close to 10” on 0z NAM. Wow

[St Paul Storm]

Then at hr 66 it decides to bring the sauce. Snow shield explodes north. Heavy band over MSP. But I’ll be buried in pingers before then.

[St Paul Storm]

Still gets to 10” Kuchera here. 30” jack zone in W MN. They are sitting pretty out there.

[CentralNebWeather]

If we get anywhere close to these amounts with gusts to 55 mph, heaven help us.

[Money]

Secondary really takes off at the end in IN and get crushed with sleet here...

[Money]

Composite radar at the end

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&rh=2018041200&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Nice sleet storm with ice in N IL

[WBadgersW]

Disgusting

[gosaints]

Moneymam bright banding

[Money]

Moneymam bright banding

Is it close at all to snow? 850’s are way below zero. Not sure what else you need

[gosaints]

Is it close at all to snow? 850’s are way below zero. Not sure what else you need

There is some scorching mid-level here at least...

[Minny_Weather]

We may be seeing an upgrade to slight risk here Friday with the way the NAMily is looking. Looks like here will be the place for storms to form.

[gabel23]

We may be seeing an upgrade to slight risk here Friday with the way the NAMily is looking. Looks like here will be the place for storms to form.

Nam showing the possibility of low top super-cells.....at least at the 850 mb level. This has the making of everything around and out in front of the ULL. Could see blizzard warnings and thunderstorm/tornado warnings within a couple counties of each other. Oh yeah, and our school has prom this Saturday......

[Minny_Weather]

Nam showing the possibility of low top super-cells.....at least at the 850 mb level. This has the making of everything around and out in front of the ULL. Could see blizzard warnings and thunderstorm/tornado warnings within a couple counties of each other. Oh yeah, and our school has prom this Saturday......

~2600 j/kg CAPE, no capping, dew points the exact same as the temps, and 80kt bulk shear on top of me.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Nice looking NAM and hires nam for storms Friday. Severe storms Friday evening to 2-3 inches of snow the next day. I'll take it! Excited to see the GFS and EURO tonight.

[Money]

Gfs is by far the farthest north and strongest model tonight

 

Gem even shifted way south

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I'm sorry, but I think the GFS is off its rocker. Its even further north and west so you'd think eastern NE would get severe storms right as the low is further west right? Nope...still way east into Iowa. Doesn't make any sense at all. Gotta use common sense here

[Minny_Weather]

I'm sorry, but I think the GFS is off its rocker. Its even further north and west so you'd think eastern NE would get severe storms right as the low is further west right? Nope...still way east into Iowa. Doesn't make any sense at all. Gotta use common sense here

I find it weird how it has the low farting around in NE Nebraska forever. Yeah, GFS is disagreeing with itself like it sometimes does. I think it's too moist biased over in Iowa as well.

[Minny_Weather]

RGEM has the low between Lincoln and Beatrice @ hr 48.

[Stormgeek]

Local weather person around here is screaming bust because the low is too far south. Interested to see what comes of that prediction.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

CMC did take a jump south. Has Omaha in 2-3.5 inches with 3-5 inches over Fremont just up the road. Inching towards euro baby!

 

[Money]

CMC did take a jump south. Has Omaha in 2-3.5 inches with 3-5 inches over Fremont just up the road. Inching towards euro baby!

 

Yup

 

NAM/GEM south

GFS north

 

Icon has the low farther south but precip farther north

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yup

 

NAM/GEM south

GFS north

 

Icon has the low farther south but precip farther north

I don't know a time where the ICON model was right, and usually I look at it too. 

[Money]

Ukie looks pretty similar to nam/gem

 

Not as strong as gfs and a bit south

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The GEFS is further south and has some nice hits for Omaha here.

[Money]

The GEFS is further south and has some nice hits for Omaha here.

Map?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The euro went a tad west a bit but still gives the Omaha area 2-4 inches, not as much as 12z but still more then the gfs. Looks more like the gem

[Money]

6z gfs

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018041206&fh=102&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Probably the best backside defo band we’ve seen from the gfs

 

Nam

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018041206&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Icon

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018041206&fh=117

[Tom]

First Blizzard Warnings already up in W SD and likely more to be issued later today.  I got this feeling a historic storm system is in the works.  This should be quite an entertaining 2-3 day stretch of weather in terms of the severe side, to the Blizzard, and the very cold temps for the time of year.

 

@CentralNeb, your in line for a memorable storm system my friend...not to far away, Gabel may be riding the edge as well...

 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, the 00z Euro advertising an MSP special with 12"+, including GoSaints and east into GRB area...

[St Paul Storm]

Loving that 6z GFS. Holy snow band. MPX sticking with 6-10” for this area, with 8-15” to the west. They say they’re using the GFS and GEM for guidance.

[CentralNebWeather]

First Blizzard Warnings already up in W SD and likely more to be issued later today. I got this feeling a historic storm system is in the works. This should be quite an entertaining 2-3 day stretch of weather in terms of the severe side, to the Blizzard, and the very cold temps for the time of year.

 

@CentralNeb, your in line for a memorable storm system my friend...not to far away, Gabel may be riding the edge as well...

 

 

 

It should be quite a storm. I can envision blizzard warnings being issued here also.

 

 

 

Meanwhile, the 00z Euro advertising an MSP special with 12"+, including GoSaints and east into GRB area...

[St Paul Storm]

6z GEFS. Looks good to me. Gonna make a run at 70” for the season if this verifies.

[westMJim]

At this time we are still planning on going up to the Bay City area for the weekend to visit family.  At this time there is a winter storm watch up for an ice storm with not only a half to 3/4  inch of ice but winds of 35 to 45 MPH out of the north east. Having lived there for over 30 years  I know first hand that under this set up the winds can be higher then that in Bay City with the fetch of almost 200 miles off Lake Huron and the Saginaw Bay. If we go and still have power I will keep you updated.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

6z gefs has some nice hits for eastern neb

[gabel23]

First Blizzard Warnings already up in W SD and likely more to be issued later today.  I got this feeling a historic storm system is in the works.  This should be quite an entertaining 2-3 day stretch of weather in terms of the severe side, to the Blizzard, and the very cold temps for the time of year.

 

@CentralNeb, your in line for a memorable storm system my friend...not to far away, Gabel may be riding the edge as well...

I'll be riding the edge, the same as every storm so far this year. It's crazy how everyone of these things have had such a sharpe cut off so close to my area. Gonna be an interesting day of model watching! 

[CentralNebWeather]

I am going with our other HS football coaches to Lincoln tomorrow for the UNL football clinic.  We have now decided to leave Lincoln early to make it back here before the storm hits.  (fearful that if blizzard conditions develop, I-80 would be closed).  Now our school is already cancelling and changing activities for Saturday.  This has been quite a spring for sports activities and changes.

[Minny_Weather]

A bit disappointing that SPC basically copied and pasted yesterday's Day 3 forecast into today's Day 2 forecast. 

[Snowshoe]

Snowshoe sits in the jackzone per the Euro!

 

No thanks....argh...what the heck. Bring it on!!!

[Stormgeek]

Will the 12Z runs be sampled or will we have to wait for 18Z?