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April 13th-16th Spring Bowling Ball Powerhouse


Tom

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I might drive to the Twin Cities and visit my mom this wkend (at least that is what I will tell the wife) and go snow chasing...ecmwfued-null--usnc-156-C-frozentot10k.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Blocking keeps wrecking havoc in the modeling and the shifts south keep on coming on.  Looks like MSP is def in the game now to see a major snowstorm.  Gosh, that would be incredible to see a Top 3 snowstorm in April...I think you have a shot to smash records with this one.

 

On the severe wx side, looks like its primarily dwindling around IA and focusing more into parts of the S MW and moreso across the southern Plains.

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^^^ Always nice to see Ladysmith on a map.. :P

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I see the 00z euro keeps the warm front farther south on Friday, so northern Iowa through the north Chicago burbs get stuck in the 40s.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I see the 00z euro keeps the warm front farther south on Friday, so northern Iowa through the north Chicago burbs get stuck in the 40s.

12z NAM trending that way, as well as, the 06z GFS. Guess the luck of reaching 70F on Friday is running out!

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12z NAM trending that way, as well as, the 06z GFS. Guess the luck of reaching 70F on Friday is running out!

 

Mby was never even teased with the chance  :rolleyes:  Gotta nab my 1st 60 of the spring, ha! 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GFS with a very slight tick north with the heaviest snow but overall similar to the 06z. 12z GEM brings the sauce. Northern MSP to Duluth shut down.

Hopefully we don't get stuck in limbo with this one. Not sure I can take a snowfall under 3 inches this time of year! Give me spring or give me winter, you can keep this mixing seasons funny business away from here. ;)

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Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening.  It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm.

 

ecmwf_t2max_iowa_84.png

ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png

ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_156.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Lol. You knew one of the models had to blink soon. There was way too much consistency this far out.

I love tracking storms during these blocky patterns as each run provides a different solution. I think odds are increasing in your favor, and even into GoSaints area for a good snowstorm.

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Wow, the euro now only brings the warm front up to just past Cedar Rapids by midday Friday before sinking back south of CR by evening. It gets even more interesting beyond that, as the euro now sags the low so far southeast, the second piece of energy that re-energizes the storm now gives eastern Iowa into Wisconsin another snowstorm.

 

ecmwf_t2max_iowa_84.png

ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png

ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_156.png

Can you post the snow maps when they fully load? Thanks in advance.

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I love tracking storms during these blocky patterns as each run provides a different solution. I think odds are increasing in your favor, and even into GoSaints area for a good snowstorm.

Probably going to bounce around pretty hard for another 2 days at least. These blocking patterns are impossible for the models to figure out. It appears it’s going to snow. Just gotta see how big we can go.

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Any indications of this going away? (Please say yes)

Let’s see the 12z EPS run and if the shift south continues. The southern Energy coming up from the south is another piece to the puzzle that could maximize its potential.

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All the pieces would have to come together perfectly to get this scenario, so it probably won't happen.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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