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April 13th-16th Spring Bowling Ball Powerhouse


Tom

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the NAM/Euro have always been buds on this event since the NAM came in range. The GFS is the progressive outlier(surprise there), whereas the former two models are slower and generally further south. Both of those also have higher severe probabilities than the GFS. One area along the warm front/triple point in Iowa, and the other down in the Arklatex. 

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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IOWA magnet in full effect

Iowa magnet? Are you kidding me lol. Northern Iowa one way or the other has always managed to get smacked with snow with each storm lol.

 

The latest GFS had the low slightly a tad west, every mile will count when it comes to getting a few inches of snow here. This storm is pulling some whacky so I wouldn't be surprised to see a few curve balls thrown.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Iowa magnet? Are you kidding me lol. Northern Iowa one way or the other has always managed to get smacked with snow with each storm lol.

 

The latest GFS had the low slightly a tad west, every mile will count when it comes to getting a few inches of snow here. This storm is pulling some whacky s**t so I wouldn't be surprised to see a few curve balls thrown.

You're delusional.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Iowa magnet? Are you kidding me lol. Northern Iowa one way or the other has always managed to get smacked with snow with each storm lol.

 

The latest GFS had the low slightly a tad west, every mile will count when it comes to getting a few inches of snow here. This storm is pulling some whacky s**t so I wouldn't be surprised to see a few curve balls thrown.

Right, which reaffirms that there is an Iowa magnet lol I’m confused as to what you mean?

 

Just hoping for something interesting in my last few weeks here, but GFS isn’t impressive for Neb really, just the same old story of a low going right over us with a dry slot.

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Right, which reaffirms that there is an Iowa magnet lol I’m confused as to what you mean?

 

Just hoping for something interesting in my last few weeks here, but GFS isn’t impressive for Neb really, just the same old story of a low going right over us with a dry slot.

I know, I read it wrong. Just my inner bitterness at them lol. Im hoping this thing can either move just enough west so we can get some severe storms or move just slightly more south and east so we can at least pick up some snow. The ICON model and the NAM moved slightly west so maybe we can score some severe weather with the crazy amount of shear profiles there is.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Thoughts on the 0z runs so far?

TBH, not really. The GFS seems to have been almost certainly too progressive with the evolution of the 500mb trough and therefore the surface low. Also the trend for a more elongated low as opposed to a consolidated one should preclude occlusion which was a common theme up until yesterday. Now it seems that south is the name of the game, more in line with the Euro, with the 00z NAM coming in even slower than the Euro had been. All models have also been trending flatter/less amplified, but that's been a trend for how long now? So that is not at all surprising. Can't really comment on snow potential because I haven't been following it, because frankly I'm sick of it. I'm in full severe wx mode, which I tend to think I'm far more knowledgeable on anyways. Thursday would have been one helluva day in the plains if the 500mb trough and ascent would have been faster, cooling mid level temps. Thursday was never really in the cards though, as the entire warm sector is nuclear capped. After this trough all reasonable moisture seems to want to take a vacation to the equator for several days. Yippee.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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From what I see, the big difference between the euro and other models is the euro is cutting off the upper low completely, while the others keep it connected, at least a bit, to the jet stream, which also stretches the low north-south.  Cutting it off into a nice circle allows the secondary energy to get pulled back into Iowa.  If the upper low is stretched n-s, the secondary energy gets shot up into Michigan.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro has a similar scenario to 12z, but there is one notable change.  The 00z run has strengthened some upper energy up in southern Canada, north of Lake Superior, and this energy acts to pull on the midwest upper low just enough to stretch it a bit and cause it to move a bit farther east and north compared to the 12z run.  So, the snowstorm shifts east.  This slight north pull also causes this run to push the warm front back north somewhat on Friday.  Obviously, the interaction between the various pieces of energy will cause many important changes between now and the weekend.

 

ecmwf_ptype_slp_greatlakes_114.png

ecmwf_vort_500_conus_108.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Grizz do you have ice accumulation maps by any chance?

No-- (from most of the raw #'s I have been looking at - ice shouldn't be an issue but I haven't looked everywhere) but I got the Euro in Kuchera...ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-138-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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One thing that both the GFS and Euro agree on is a very cold Sunday at least here in C.IA. The GFS has highs in the mid to upper 30's and the EURO has a sub freezing max which, if it verifies, would be latest sub 32F max temp at DSM. The latest is 4/9/1973 at 30F.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The way this system is trending, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chitown get some accumulating snow.  Last nights 00z EPS did shift south a bit from its previous 00z run and def colder once it pushes to the east when the secondary piece re-energizes the system.  Quite the mid-April powerhouse slow bowling ball!  BTW, this pattern is going to produce several more before the month is out.

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NWS Hastings

 

Winds will be a

significant factor with this storm system with sustained winds

expected to average 30 mph or more with gusts over 50 mph possible.

Impacts of the snow and wind could make travel difficult or

impossible especially where the heavier snow amounts are forecast.

The main take away is that the storm system is on track to produce a

round of winter weather this weekend, with the worst conditions due

to snow/wind expected Friday night into Saturday.

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OAX:

 

 

 

By Friday night, the upper system is forecast to be centered just
to our west with the surface low directly on top of the forecast
area, placing a very strong baroclinic zone across our area.
Much colder air to the north will begin to turn precipitation
over to snow in our northern counties during the early hours
Saturday morning. Details still need to be worked out but
forecaster confidence is increasing at significant accumulations
of snow across northeast Nebraska, generally along the South
Dakota/Nebraska border. Have held off on any headlines as of yet
with the details still a ways out there. Wind along the back side
of the low could create significant blowing and drifting and
will continue to mention this in the HWO. Areas closer to our
major metro areas along I-80 and south look to see light snowfall
accumulations along with gusty northwest winds.
 

 

 

 

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday evening and
night across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. In
addition, rain is expected to mix with and eventually change over
to snow across far northeast Nebraska early Saturday morning.
Significant snowfall accumulations are possible across northeast
Nebraska through the day Saturday in addition to gusty northwest
winds. This could create areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Lighter snowfall accumulations around an inch or two are expected
as far south as the Omaha and Lincoln metro areas Saturday.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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So the gfs says 2in here and the euro says 20"?!?!

 

So, you have your goalposts. Now to start narrowing them down  :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This storm is starting to hit the local media and schools.  Already talk about changes to schedules potentially on Saturday.  NWS Hastings still not ready to hoist any type of watches yet, but is concerned about snow and very strong winds that could severely impact travel this weekend.  It seems like almost all of our storms this year in Central Nebraska have hit on a weekend.  I will post updates as they occur.  With myself traveling this weekend, I am very concerned.  I used to take chances with travel in any type of weather when I was younger, but I have much more respect now for the power of storms.

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