April 13th-16th Spring Bowling Ball Powerhouse

[St Paul Storm]

If there is one thing you should not do, it is that. Talking up totals like that never seems to end well with the whole "boy who cried wolf" thing coming onto the table. We shall see.

He’s one of the biggest anti-snow weenies there is. That makes his tone so interesting here.

[Hawkeye]

The general trend this morning is to have the upper low feel a bit more northeastward pull from the flow up north.

[Money]

Ukie says you should buy a canoe either way

Yeah 4+ qpf on all the models through this weekend

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings update- 11:10 AM:  yes they are using the word blizzard.  Huh?

 

Looking ahead, models are still focusing on winter weather making
a return Friday into Friday night with rain changing to snow.
We`ll be looking at the details closely with the afternoon update
absorbing all of the new model info, but we are becoming
increasingly concerned with the strong winds, combined with snow
potential of a few inches possible. Models are hinting at near
blizzard conditions possible across parts of the central Plains.
While we do not have any winter weather headlines in effect yet,
we`ll be collaborating with other NWS offices through the
afternoon and will provide more details with the afternoon
forecast package.

[gosaints]

EURO slightly north of the GFS at 48 it looks like

[gosaints]

Barely makes any progress east between 48-72

 

 

[Tom]

Barely makes any progress east between 48-72

 

 

Euro a bit colder over E NE into MN, but overall looks the same...should be an interesting run...this thing just crawls as the Hudson Bay "road block" looks strong as ever...

[St Paul Storm]

Barely makes any progress east between 48-72

 

 

Yeah it’s stuck in the mud/slush. It just sits there.

[Money]

HR 96 has a 1000 L in northern IN

[Tom]

12z Euro creeping blizzard conditions near OMA area...just to the west, meanwhile, C/N NE gets pounded by a Blitz up into SD/MN...epic snowstorm in the works for mid April.

[gosaints]

Looks like MSP crush job

[Tom]

Looks like the secondary piece amps up and a defo band swings through N IL into WI on Sun into Mon and produces snow.

[gosaints]

So much cold rain for so many areas through 90

[Money]

Looks like the secondary piece amps up and a defo band swings through N IL into WI on Sun into Mon and produces snow.

Doesn’t look nearly as impressive as last two runs

[Tom]

Doesn’t look nearly as impressive as last two runs

Actually, it doesn't look like it snows...surface temps suggest upper 20's on Sun into Mon based on weather.us maps....

[Money]

Actually, it doesn't look like it snows...surface temps suggest upper 20's on Sun into Mon based on weather.us maps....

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018041112/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180416-1200z.html

 

Looks similar to gfs up this way

[Grizzcoat]

[jcwxguy]

ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-138-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png

Little farther south please

[gosaints]

ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-138-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png

Craig should be in to turn on his magnet soon

[Money]

Craig should be in to turn on his magnet soon

Where’s geos when we need em

[Money]

So, what was the big difference between today’s run and last nights? Didn’t dig south enough?

[gosaints]

So, what was the big difference between today’s run and last nights? Didn’t dig south enough?

Not that different really synoptically from what I can see.  Models are gonna struggle with evolution of the snow shield.  I think in the end we see more of a consolidated system

[bud2380]

Depends where you live I guess on the differences.  Euro with a drastically different solution for Eastern Iowa from just 24 hours ago.  And I'm not really that sad about it.  

[gosaints]

Depends where you live I guess on the differences.  Euro with a drastically different solution for Eastern Iowa from just 24 hours ago.  And I'm not really that sad about it.  

Right there are large differences everywhere sensible weather wise but and 500 and pressure wise the differences are not huge

[Tom]

Snowshoe sits in the jackzone per the Euro!

[gabel23]

Expect watches to get expanded east this afternoon. I'm interested in seeing what Hastings will do. I'm thinking a lot of their CWA will be put into a watch, crazy for mid April. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Craig should be in to turn on his magnet soon

Lol very happy needless to say. Each run has been a tad further east and south. 

[gosaints]

Lol very happy needless to say. Each run has been a tad further east and south. 

U should be in a warning by morning right?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

U should be in a warning by morning right?

Totally! I won't feel comfy about anything until Friday late night, this storm is huge and will throw some curveballs.

[St Paul Storm]

U should be in a warning by morning right?

You meant ‘complaining by morning’.

[Minny_Weather]

Lol Euro now with 5" here. Bet that's what Craig was talking about. I'm not gonna live on one model run showing jacked up numbers for a low-ratio event. Especially since the air temperature 12 hours before the snow starts falling is gonna be 70.

[CentralNebWeather]

Expect watches to get expanded east this afternoon. I'm interested in seeing what Hastings will do. I'm thinking a lot of their CWA will be put into a watch, crazy for mid April. 

My thoughts exactly.  I am thinking Winter Storm Watch will be issued.  Disco coming in the next hour or so.

[gosaints]

You meant ‘complaining by morning’.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Lol Euro now with 5" here. Bet that's what Craig was talking about. I'm not gonna live on one model run showing jacked up numbers for a low-ratio event. Especially since the air temperature 12 hours before the snow starts falling is gonna be 70.

 The temperatures before the storm doesn't matter. We've had snow accumulate on the roads on May 1st a few years ago.

[Hawkeye]

The euro just isn't cutting off the low like it was last run, and especially two runs ago.

[gabel23]

My thoughts exactly.  I am thinking Winter Storm Watch will be issued.  Disco coming in the next hour or so.

Holy cow Central!!! 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Hastings NE

Issued by National Weather Service OMAHA/VALLEY NE

318 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018

 

...POTENT EARLY SPRING STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

 

.An early spring storm will develop Friday into Saturday,

bringing a chance of rain changing to snow, with up to a few

inches of snow possible. Northwest winds will increase 25 to 40

mph, with gusts up to 50 mph possible, which could create near

blizzard or whiteout conditions. Travel may eventually be

impacted.

 

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>076-082>084-120430-

/O.NEW.KGID.WS.A.0004.180414T0000Z-180415T0000Z/

Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-

Hall-Hamilton-York-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Furnas-Harlan-

Franklin-

Including the cities of Ord, Greeley, Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach,

Fullerton, Genoa, Loup City, Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield,

St. Libory, Central City, Stromsburg, Osceola, Shelby, Polk,

Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island, Gothenburg, Kearney,

Grand Island, Aurora, York, Elwood, Johnson Lake, Holdrege,

Minden, Hastings, Sutton, Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield,

Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Hollinger, Alma,

Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, and Hildreth

318 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

 

* WHAT...Near blizzard conditions possible. Winds gusting as high

as 50 mph could cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow.

Significant drifting of the snow is also possible. Total snow

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 7

inches, and ice accumulations of a light glaze are possible.

[NEJeremy]

[gosaints]

[Money]

Another shift north on the nam

[CentralNebWeather]

Holy cow Central!!! 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Hastings NE

Issued by National Weather Service OMAHA/VALLEY NE

318 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018

 

...POTENT EARLY SPRING STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

 

.An early spring storm will develop Friday into Saturday,

bringing a chance of rain changing to snow, with up to a few

inches of snow possible. Northwest winds will increase 25 to 40

mph, with gusts up to 50 mph possible, which could create near

blizzard or whiteout conditions. Travel may eventually be

impacted.

 

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>076-082>084-120430-

/O.NEW.KGID.WS.A.0004.180414T0000Z-180415T0000Z/

Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-

Hall-Hamilton-York-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Furnas-Harlan-

Franklin-

Including the cities of Ord, Greeley, Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach,

Fullerton, Genoa, Loup City, Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield,

St. Libory, Central City, Stromsburg, Osceola, Shelby, Polk,

Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island, Gothenburg, Kearney,

Grand Island, Aurora, York, Elwood, Johnson Lake, Holdrege,

Minden, Hastings, Sutton, Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield,

Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Hollinger, Alma,

Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, and Hildreth

318 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

 

* WHAT...Near blizzard conditions possible. Winds gusting as high

as 50 mph could cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow.

Significant drifting of the snow is also possible. Total snow

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 7

inches, and ice accumulations of a light glaze are possible.

School just ended and my phone is going off.  My prediction was correct.  I will have to look at information a little closer.