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JANUARY (yes, J-A-N-U-A-R-Y) 2023 Arctic Outbreak Forecast Contest


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  • Longtimer

January

SEA/PDX

Highs/Lows - snowfall totals if you’re a sadist (won’t be scored).

Saturday 1/28 through Tuesday 1/31.

Entries must be postmarked no later than 11:59 p.m. on Thursday 1/26.

The WINNER will have $50 donated in their name to the Taylor Swift Charitable Fund:

https://www.cfmt.org/giving-and-investing/become-a-donor/give-to-a-fund/the-taylor-swift-charitable-fund/
 

Good luck and……….. January

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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  • Longtimer

Honestly don't think I'm even going to need any adjustments with this.

 

PDX

1/28: 48/34

1/29: 37/28                    1.8" of SNOW

1/30: 33/24                   3.1" of SNOW

1/31: 31/22                    0.1" of SNOW (miracle band manifests to get to 5")

 

SEA

1/28: 43/32

1/29: 35/27                 1.1" of SNOW

1/30: 32/21                 0.2" of SNOW

1/31: 32/20

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Definitely going to need to do another forecast on Thursday night…but I want to make a guess tonight just to see how much my forecast changes in the coming days. I think they record a trace of snow atleast at some point but probably not much more. 
SEA

1/28 40/33

1/29 37/31

1/30 35/23

1/31 36/28

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.88”

Wet season rainfall-16.37”

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17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Honestly don't think I'm even going to need any adjustments with this.

 

PDX

1/28: 48/34

1/29: 37/28                    1.8" of SNOW

1/30: 33/24                   3.1" of SNOW

1/31: 31/22                    0.1" of SNOW (miracle band manifests to get to 5")

 

SEA

1/28: 43/32

1/29: 35/27                 1.1" of SNOW

1/30: 32/21                 0.2" of SNOW

1/31: 32/20

If this verifies that would definitely be a pretty good one. Overall I’m kinda getting the feeling atleast up here in western WA there will be very little precip to work with. Probably some spotty accumulations but not a lot. I also think this airmass just gets watered down a bit as we get closer…but overall ends up more impressive down south especially in the PDX area. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.88”

Wet season rainfall-16.37”

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SEA:

1/28 - 41/34; 0.3"

1/29 - 37/29; 0.0"

1/30 - 34/23; 0.0"

1/31 - 36/25; 1.2"

PDX:

1/28 - 46/35; 0.6"

1/29 - 35/25; 0.2"

1/30 - 29/18; 0.0"

1/31 - 36/23; 0.0"

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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KPDX is going to overperform me thinks. Rare situation where that Arctic trough COMES hard and south, leaving KPDX dry and cold and likely with a skiff of snow on the ground. Not going to be much of a north-favored event unless the Arctic front overperforms in the Sound. KSEA will eke out some measurable wintry mix Saturday evening with the sfc front coming out of the east. Happened last February, too.

I would watch for some cvn-enhanced precip and maybe an early changeover over the Portland metro area during the front as moisture will be more plentiful in the Willamette Valley during that time. Just better timing overall down south. That Arctic front will push south too so @TigerWoodsLibido will get to see his first true Arctic front in a while, with precip and all, no matter the type. And maybe he'll notch another subfreezing high on the season Monday.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

KPDX is going to overperform me thinks. Rare situation where that Arctic trough COMES hard and south, leaving KPDX dry and cold and likely with a skiff of snow on the ground. Not going to be much of a north-favored event unless the Arctic front overperforms in the Sound. KSEA will eke out some measurable wintry mix Saturday evening with the sfc front coming out of the east. Happened last February, too.

I would watch for some cvn-enhanced precip and maybe an early changeover over the Portland metro area during the front as moisture will be more plentiful in the Willamette Valley during that time. Just better timing overall down south. That Arctic front will push south too so @TigerWoodsLibido will get to see his first true Arctic front in a while, with precip and all, no matter the type. And maybe he'll notch another subfreezing high on the season Monday.

Hoping we can get a low in the teens, PDX hasn't done that since 2017.

Would love to see a good inch of snow before the cold!

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  • Longtimer

SEA:

1/28 - 45/36; 0.0”

1/29 - 40/33; 0.0"

1/30 - 37/28; 0.0"

1/31 - 39/29; 0.1”

PDX:

1/28 - 50/37; 0.0” 

1/29 - 40/29; 0.1” 

1/30 - 32/24; 8.0” 

1/31 - 33/25; 6.5” 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer
On 1/24/2023 at 9:18 PM, MossMan said:

SEA:

1/28 - 45/36; 0.0”

1/29 - 43/33; 0.0"

1/30 - 50/29; 0.0"

1/31 - 58/33; 0.0” 

PDX:

1/28 - 50/37; 0.0” 

1/29 - 40/29; 0.0” 

1/30 - 53/33; 12.0”

1/31 - 64/50; 0.0” 

I made a couple minor revisions. Portland still somehow manages to score like usual. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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My entry. Took a closer look at the models and this looks like a non event from a snowfall perspective. It will still get cold with frigid overnight temperatures though. While I’m not predicting any measureable snow for SEA and PDX, most people should at least see snowflakes in the air at some point before drying out Saturday night. Some of the foothills I can see getting a dusting to 0.5 inches or so. Also the further you go down the Willamette Valley, the better chances to see some light accumulations. Eugene I can see getting 0.5”. It’s going to be a cold end to January! 🥶
 

SEA-

1/28: 44/34 

1/29: 39/29

1/30: 39/25

1/31: 40/29

 

PDX-

1/28: 46/36 

1/29: 39/29

1/30: 41/24

1/31: 43/27

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