JANUARY (yes, J-A-N-U-A-R-Y) 2023 Arctic Outbreak Forecast Contest

[Deweydog]

January

SEA/PDX

Highs/Lows - snowfall totals if you’re a sadist (won’t be scored).

Saturday 1/28 through Tuesday 1/31.

Entries must be postmarked no later than 11:59 p.m. on Thursday 1/26.

The WINNER will have $50 donated in their name to the Taylor Swift Charitable Fund:

https://www.cfmt.org/giving-and-investing/become-a-donor/give-to-a-fund/the-taylor-swift-charitable-fund/
 

Good luck and……….. January. 

[BLI snowman]

Honestly don't think I'm even going to need any adjustments with this.

 

PDX

1/28: 48/34

1/29: 37/28                    1.8" of SNOW

1/30: 33/24                   3.1" of SNOW

1/31: 31/22                    0.1" of SNOW (miracle band manifests to get to 5")

 

SEA

1/28: 43/32

1/29: 35/27                 1.1" of SNOW

1/30: 32/21                 0.2" of SNOW

1/31: 32/20

[TacomaWx]

Definitely going to need to do another forecast on Thursday night…but I want to make a guess tonight just to see how much my forecast changes in the coming days. I think they record a trace of snow atleast at some point but probably not much more. 
SEA

1/28 40/33

1/29 37/31

1/30 35/23

1/31 36/28

[TacomaWx]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Honestly don't think I'm even going to need any adjustments with this.

 

PDX

1/28: 48/34

1/29: 37/28                    1.8" of SNOW

1/30: 33/24                   3.1" of SNOW

1/31: 31/22                    0.1" of SNOW (miracle band manifests to get to 5")

 

SEA

1/28: 43/32

1/29: 35/27                 1.1" of SNOW

1/30: 32/21                 0.2" of SNOW

1/31: 32/20

If this verifies that would definitely be a pretty good one. Overall I’m kinda getting the feeling atleast up here in western WA there will be very little precip to work with. Probably some spotty accumulations but not a lot. I also think this airmass just gets watered down a bit as we get closer…but overall ends up more impressive down south especially in the PDX area. 

[Doinko]

I'll definitely update on Thursday but this is what I have now:

SEA:

1/28: 42/34
1/29: 37/27
1/30: 34/25
1/31: 36/24

PDX:

1/28: 45/35
1/29: 35/27
1/30: 31/24
1/31: 33/21

 

[Meatyorologist]

SEA:

1/28 - 41/34; 0.3"

1/29 - 37/29; 0.0"

1/30 - 34/23; 0.0"

1/31 - 36/25; 1.2"

PDX:

1/28 - 46/35; 0.6"

1/29 - 35/25; 0.2"

1/30 - 29/18; 0.0"

1/31 - 36/23; 0.0"

[Meatyorologist]

KPDX is going to overperform me thinks. Rare situation where that Arctic trough COMES hard and south, leaving KPDX dry and cold and likely with a skiff of snow on the ground. Not going to be much of a north-favored event unless the Arctic front overperforms in the Sound. KSEA will eke out some measurable wintry mix Saturday evening with the sfc front coming out of the east. Happened last February, too.

I would watch for some cvn-enhanced precip and maybe an early changeover over the Portland metro area during the front as moisture will be more plentiful in the Willamette Valley during that time. Just better timing overall down south. That Arctic front will push south too so @TigerWoodsLibido will get to see his first true Arctic front in a while, with precip and all, no matter the type. And maybe he'll notch another subfreezing high on the season Monday.

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

KPDX is going to overperform me thinks. Rare situation where that Arctic trough COMES hard and south, leaving KPDX dry and cold and likely with a skiff of snow on the ground. Not going to be much of a north-favored event unless the Arctic front overperforms in the Sound. KSEA will eke out some measurable wintry mix Saturday evening with the sfc front coming out of the east. Happened last February, too.

I would watch for some cvn-enhanced precip and maybe an early changeover over the Portland metro area during the front as moisture will be more plentiful in the Willamette Valley during that time. Just better timing overall down south. That Arctic front will push south too so @TigerWoodsLibido will get to see his first true Arctic front in a while, with precip and all, no matter the type. And maybe he'll notch another subfreezing high on the season Monday.

Hoping we can get a low in the teens, PDX hasn't done that since 2017.

Would love to see a good inch of snow before the cold!

[Deweydog]

Couple more days of models flopping around like a dying trout on a depleted lake dock baked by steadily warming summer sunshine….

Edited January 25 by Deweydog

[MossMan]

SEA:

1/28 - 45/36; 0.0”

1/29 - 40/33; 0.0"

1/30 - 37/28; 0.0"

1/31 - 39/29; 0.1”

PDX:

1/28 - 50/37; 0.0” 

1/29 - 40/29; 0.1” 

1/30 - 32/24; 8.0” 

1/31 - 33/25; 6.5” 

[Deweydog]

PDX:

Saturday: 46/32 flakes in the air!

Sunday: 36/27

Monday: 37/24

Tuesday: 43/27

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I’ll have my entry in tonight. But as of right now I’m thinking ~0.5”-1” of snow with the Arctic front for PDX Metro. Maybe a little higher amounts on the foothills and further you go down the Willamette Valley.

[MossMan]

On 1/24/2023 at 9:18 PM, MossMan said:

SEA:

1/28 - 45/36; 0.0”

1/29 - 43/33; 0.0"

1/30 - 50/29; 0.0"

1/31 - 58/33; 0.0” 

PDX:

1/28 - 50/37; 0.0” 

1/29 - 40/29; 0.0” 

1/30 - 53/33; 12.0”

1/31 - 64/50; 0.0” 

I made a couple minor revisions. Portland still somehow manages to score like usual. 

[TacomaWx]

No need to update my forecast. Even that may come in a little too chilly. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

My entry. Took a closer look at the models and this looks like a non event from a snowfall perspective. It will still get cold with frigid overnight temperatures though. While I’m not predicting any measureable snow for SEA and PDX, most people should at least see snowflakes in the air at some point before drying out Saturday night. Some of the foothills I can see getting a dusting to 0.5 inches or so. Also the further you go down the Willamette Valley, the better chances to see some light accumulations. Eugene I can see getting 0.5”. It’s going to be a cold end to January!
 

SEA-

1/28: 44/34 

1/29: 39/29

1/30: 39/25

1/31: 40/29

 

PDX-

1/28: 46/36 

1/29: 39/29

1/30: 41/24

1/31: 43/27

[Doinko]

Oops, I forgot to update mine. Definitely going to be warmer than my original forecast

[Deweydog]

Alright junior prognosticators, the finals numbers are in:

KSEA:

44/36

40/28

39/24

41/31

 

KPDX:

47/37

39/31

41/21

42/27

 

FIVE fine contestants this go around, almost DOUBLING the amount from December’s event. Truly inspiring. The WINNER will be announced soon. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

I am not the winner

[Deweydog]

Alright, I know you guys have been sitting on pins and needles waiting to see who came out on top. That results are in, double and triple checked, meaning we can finally close the books on this historic event. January IS BACK!

Ok, Billy’s now man: +77

Doin’ Co: +66

Meet your urologist: +64

Mo Snodgrassman: +45

And your winner, cashing in on patience during a 2000’s-style model pullback with an astonishing +16, is….

@Frontal Snowsquall

After speaking to her directly, despite being charged with telephone harassment and stalking, she is excited to see which charity organization you select:

https://www.cfmt.org/giving-and-investing/become-a-donor/give-to-a-fund/the-taylor-swift-charitable-fund/