jaster220 Posted April 30, 2018 Report Share Posted April 30, 2018 Love it when supercells deliver the bucks $$$.. Focus shifts to the developing severe threat Tuesday afternoon andnight as the front moves to a position just north of I80 by earlyevening. Atmosphere may be largely capped until about 21z, withsignificant thunderstorm development likely along the I80corridor. Surface dewpoints could be in the lower 60s by then,with 0-6km bulk shear values increasing to around 50 knots.Surface-based CAPE of up to 2500 J/kg, combined with strongconvergence along the surface front should lead to supercells insoutheast NE, expanding in coverage through the evening. Surfacewinds will be slightly backed, enhancing helicity, with veeringwinds aloft, Soundings suggest critical angles of low level shearand storm relative winds will be nearly perpendicular, resultingin a high likelihood of tornadic supercells initially. GFS evenindicates there could be a magic triple point initiation perhapswest or southwest of Lincoln. Storms should expand in coveragenorthwest along the frontal boundary which becomes nearlystationary through the evening. SPC has maintained areasalong/south of Interstate 80 in an enhanced risk for severe stormsTuesday afternoon/evening, with a 10% probability of tornadoes,which could be significant (EFT or greater). Locally heavy rainwill be possible with storms Tuesday as well, with WPC continuingto highlight a slight risk of excessive rainfall. However, thearea also remains quite dry, ranging 2-3" below normal over theprevious 30 days, so the rain will also be beneficial and needed.The severe threat diminishes after midnight south of I80, withheavy rain the predominant threat by then. ..anyhoo, good luck out there and stay safe y'all 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 30, 2018 WRF showing some NE/IA/WI boomers late tomorrow evening... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 30, 2018 Report Share Posted April 30, 2018 Well this was a surprise. I was at Culver's when I got the alert on my phone. DUST STORM WARNINGNWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE213 PM CDT MON APR 30 2018NEZ050-051-065-066-078-302304-/O.NEW.KOAX.DS.W.0001.180430T1913Z-180430T2300Z/213 PM CDT MON APR 30 2018...Dust Storm Warning issued April 30 at 2:13PM CDT expiring April 30at 6:00PM CDT by NWS Omaha/Valley NE...Southerly winds continue 25 to 35 mph with gusts up around 55mph possible. This will make travel difficult for high profile andlightweight vehicles. Loose items could be blown around. Areas ofblowing dust will also reduce visibilities and an extreme firedanger will also exist.The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued a DustStorm Warning, which is in effect until 6 PM CDT this evening.* TIMING...Continuing through early evening.* WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.* VISIBILITY...Visibilities may be near zero at times due toblowing dust and dirt.* Impacts...Travel may be difficult for high profile andlightweight vehicles. Loose items may be blown around. Areas ofblowing dust and dirt will occur. Extreme fire danger willexist.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph are expected forone hour or longer, or winds of 45 to 57 mph for any duration.Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for highprofile vehicles. Use extra caution.A Dust Storm Warning means severely limited visibilities areexpected with blowing dust. Travel could become extremelydangerous. Persons with respiratory problems should makepreparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 30, 2018 Report Share Posted April 30, 2018 iPhone had a spasm, so I was alerted of the dust storm immediately LOL Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 30, 2018 CPC's updated outlook for May...AN temps/precip??? I'd be weary of the AN temps up near the GL's. Just my opinion. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Happy May Day! I know we don't usually celebrate May Day in the U.S. but around the world it's a popular celebration. As we welcome the final month of met Spring, it will feel like mid-summer around town. Yesterday, the parks were filled with the kiddos and the neighborhood was electric with people taking walks and soaking in the return of summer-like warmth. It really was a fantastic day. ORD hit 80F for the 1st time this season. Another carbon copy on tap for today. What a relief it is to not have to fire up the furnace this morning. Slept with the window cracked open and being awaken by the signing birds brings back the good feelings of summer. Looking forward to storms and quite the heavy rain potential across the MW/GL's. 00z GFS... 06z NAM-3km...highlighting the training storm potential across the I-80 corridor from IA into N IL and points north...this multi-day set up is ideal for a heavy rain event. I think we may see flood watches if the trends continue, esp with the very dry grounds. 00z Euro showing a lot of rain as well with 2-3" across IA/N IL/WI and into MI... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 A few things stand out to me when you take a look at this North American total precip map over the next 10 days. 1) Extremely dry across the prairies of SW Canada into the Dakotas 2) Wet across the MW/GL's 3) Extremely dry across the TX Panhandle region into parts of KS/W NE...I believe this will have a dreadful impact to crop production in Canada as well as the central Plains this year where it has been bone dry. The Canadian wildfire season is prob going to be a hot topic this summer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 00z WRF showing a nasty line of storms around 7:00pm tonight near OMA/LNK...right where SPC is showing the Enhanced Outlook for today... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1525172602347 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Latest HRRR agreeing that storms should fire up around dinner time for NE/KS and then into IA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Yup the 10% tornado risk is down in KS. ****. Primary hail threats are the worst. Not even good for chasers down there as most activity looks to be after sunset. This is awful for everyone, yay!!!! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 I have to give props to my local ABC Meteorologist, not that I am happy about it. He called it on severe weather missing our area to the west and north last night and to the southeast today. Well this crapped out from 80-100% chances just a few days ago. Now it is 50 degrees with low clouds and a cool north wind. Boring. Didn't even get a drop of rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 It's actually encouraging that the sun is out right now, even if there's thin clouds too. That may give us enough heating to have development over here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 So models are pretty consistent with a linear storm mode thru here tonight. Linear systems are fun. Not as fun as supercells, but still fun. And discrete supercells can't be ruled out. SRH values of ~250 m2 s-2 at 0-1km would suggest embedded rotation within said line as well. 41kt shear isn't too shabby either. Shame it's at night. Bet this thing will have a killer shelf cloud. If we go by HRRR's word, though, we'll be looking at a hail only threat here. BOOOOOOOOOOO. Let's go WRF models. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Another crazy temp difference from my high and low yesterday (79/29). Currently, sunny and warm w temp @ 70. Making a run for 80F or betta. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Today will be the first 80° of 2018 here in Grand Rapids. The last time it was 80 or better was back on October 9th 2017. Over the years the mean first 80° at Grand Rapids is April 30th so it is just about the average time of the first 80° day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 I think North Central/Northeast Kansas, Southeast Nebraska are prime areas for severe weather. My area is north of the front so my chances appear to be 0%. This is a fairly typical setup, it seems fronts usually make it just past the Tri-Cities of Central Nebraska and then tend to stall out. Seen this many times over the years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 I'm sketched out by the thick clouds we have now. South wind may help us rise a couple degrees but I'm worried about us being able to break the cap. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Gorgeous, sunny warm day w temps in the 70s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Already hit 80F and making a run into the mid 80’s. The air has that dry AZ heat feel to it which is making my skin darn dry. Everything is pretty dusty outside. Can’t wait for the rain tomorrow to wash this out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 70F here under hazy skies. But it’s only 40 at Int’l Falls. Trees are in full bloom. They all popped within the last day or two. It’s no coincidence that I’ve sneezed a few times the last few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Tornado Watches likely to be hoisted for our E NE members and down into the N/C KS region... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Not sure what the motivation behind a MDT risk for N/C KS was. If they wanted to add a 15% tornado risk there then it'd be understandable, but I don't get the 45% hail risk. If anything hail risk there would be less than here cuz it's gonna be more isolated down there. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Hit 81F in Marshall but fell back now. Not sure GRR's 85F in my grid is gonna happen. Which, btw is fine by me. Don't need to go extreme torch on d1 of the month following historic chill Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Ahhhh yes this sunlight is just what the doctor ordered. Temps rising quickly. May actually see development closer to here as the cap should erode soon. 81.3*F. Dew point 62*F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Still very overcast in Omaha. Looks a bit dicey for the St. Joe area tomorrow.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1525203576717 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Tornado watched just got put out. Also, a storm in Kansas just popped out of no where and became severe rather quickly. Let the night begin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Some just popped up from seward to columbus too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Should be a fun night. HRRR looks rather juicy for some discrete supercell action. That was also a rather strongly worded tornado watch from an SPC that has been rather nonchalant in its outlooks. Let's do this. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Just as I predicted, Tornado Watch one county to my east. Not that I want tornadoes for anyone, but now will get to watch the thunderheads billow up just to my east and southeast. Has happened before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Gabel23 be careful out there man, that is some strong rotation right by your place. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Every form of interesting weather goes around Lincoln part 245864235987432 is about to go into effect. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Gabel23 be careful out there man, that is some strong rotation right by your place.Waiting patiently to see my next move, might not need to move much to see some action. Earlier had quarter sized hail and got .90 of rain in like 15 minutes! Came down like crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 I am looking east from my house and can see the massive thunderheads 45 miles away as I have a clear sky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Doesn't look good for here. Same story as always, seems like everything will pass North or South of Lancaster county. The one cell that MIGHT skirt the Northern edge of the county is weakening. My god this always happens. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 What a nasty hook echo in Northern Saunders County. That may produce a decent tornado. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Wow, ORD made it to 86F...these storms out in the Plains are getting me a bit excited for some boomers tomorrow...ideal pattern setting up for heavy rain and thunder... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 That's it. I'm done. I quit weather. This always happens. Right in between everything. Radar looked promising but it broke apart just in time. Hate to sound like the severe weather version of Snowlover but this happens to us for any given weather event. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Doesn't look good for here. Same story as always, seems like everything will pass North or South of Lancaster county. The one cell that MIGHT skirt the Northern edge of the county is weakening. My god this always happens.Looks like you may be missed to the southeast and northwest. I feel for you. Same thing here the last 2 days. Hoping for better luck next time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 1, 2018 Report Share Posted May 1, 2018 Looks like you may be missed to the southeast and northwest. I feel for you. Same thing here the last 2 days. Hoping for better luck next time.Problem is the cold front set up a county North of where it was originally supposed to. Hoping that gets made up for tomorrow and the severe wx ends up being North again. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted May 2, 2018 Report Share Posted May 2, 2018 Problem is the cold front set up a county North of where it was originally supposed to. Hoping that gets made up for tomorrow and the severe wx ends up being North again. Don't worry, all of us here in Omaha feel your pain with the weather once again! Heck here on the southwest side of the city, it rained for a whole three minutes... oh well, maybe something can still form this evening or overnight around here, and then onto tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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