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May 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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:lol:  Love it when supercells deliver the bucks $$$..

 

Focus shifts to the developing severe threat Tuesday afternoon and
night as the front moves to a position just north of I80 by early
evening. Atmosphere may be largely capped until about 21z, with
significant thunderstorm development likely along the I80
corridor. Surface dewpoints could be in the lower 60s by then,
with 0-6km bulk shear values increasing to around 50 knots.
Surface-based CAPE of up to 2500 J/kg, combined with strong
convergence along the surface front should lead to supercells in
southeast NE, expanding in coverage through the evening. Surface
winds will be slightly backed, enhancing helicity, with veering
winds aloft, Soundings suggest critical angles of low level shear
and storm relative winds will be nearly perpendicular, resulting
in a high likelihood of tornadic supercells initially. GFS even
indicates there could be a magic triple point initiation perhaps
west or southwest of Lincoln. Storms should expand in coverage
northwest along the frontal boundary which becomes nearly
stationary through the evening. SPC has maintained areas
along/south of Interstate 80 in an enhanced risk for severe storms
Tuesday afternoon/evening, with a 10% probability of tornadoes,
which could be significant (EFT or greater). Locally heavy rain
will be possible with storms Tuesday as well, with WPC continuing
to highlight a slight risk of excessive rainfall. However, the
area also remains quite dry, ranging 2-3" below normal over the
previous 30 days, so the rain will also be beneficial and needed.
The severe threat diminishes after midnight south of I80, with
heavy rain the predominant threat by then.

 

 

..anyhoo, good luck out there and stay safe y'all 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well this was a surprise. I was at Culver's when I got the alert on my phone.

 

 

 

DUST STORM WARNING
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
213 PM CDT MON APR 30 2018

NEZ050-051-065-066-078-302304-
/O.NEW.KOAX.DS.W.0001.180430T1913Z-180430T2300Z/
213 PM CDT MON APR 30 2018

...Dust Storm Warning issued April 30 at 2:13PM CDT expiring April 30
at 6:00PM CDT by NWS Omaha/Valley NE...

Southerly winds continue 25 to 35 mph with gusts up around 55
mph possible. This will make travel difficult for high profile and
lightweight vehicles. Loose items could be blown around. Areas of
blowing dust will also reduce visibilities and an extreme fire
danger will also exist.
The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued a Dust
Storm Warning, which is in effect until 6 PM CDT this evening.

* TIMING...Continuing through early evening.

* WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* VISIBILITY...Visibilities may be near zero at times due to
blowing dust and dirt.

* Impacts...Travel may be difficult for high profile and
lightweight vehicles. Loose items may be blown around. Areas of
blowing dust and dirt will occur. Extreme fire danger will
exist.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 30 to 39 mph are expected for
one hour or longer, or winds of 45 to 57 mph for any duration.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

A Dust Storm Warning means severely limited visibilities are
expected with blowing dust. Travel could become extremely
dangerous. Persons with respiratory problems should make
preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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CPC's updated outlook for May...AN temps/precip???  I'd be weary of the AN temps up near the GL's.  Just my opinion.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif

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Happy May Day!  I know we don't usually celebrate May Day in the U.S. but around the world it's a popular celebration.  As we welcome the final month of met Spring, it will feel like mid-summer around town.  Yesterday, the parks were filled with the kiddos and the neighborhood was electric with people taking walks and soaking in the return of summer-like warmth.  It really was a fantastic day.  ORD hit 80F for the 1st time this season.  Another carbon copy on tap for today.

 

What a relief it is to not have to fire up the furnace this morning.  Slept with the window cracked open and being awaken by the signing birds brings back the good feelings of summer.  Looking forward to storms and quite the heavy rain potential across the MW/GL's.

 

00z GFS...

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_14.png

 

 

06z NAM-3km...highlighting the training storm potential across the I-80 corridor from IA into N IL and points north...this multi-day set up is ideal for a heavy rain event.  I think we may see flood watches if the trends continue, esp with the very dry grounds.

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

00z Euro showing a lot of rain as well with 2-3" across IA/N IL/WI and into MI...

 

DcGnThxVMAE5OW3.jpg

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A few things stand out to me when you take a look at this North American total precip map over the next 10 days.  1) Extremely dry across the prairies of SW Canada into the Dakotas 2) Wet across the MW/GL's  3) Extremely dry across the TX Panhandle region into parts of KS/W NE...I believe this will have a dreadful impact to crop production in Canada as well as the central Plains this year where it has been bone dry.  The Canadian wildfire season is prob going to be a hot topic this summer.

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_namer_40.png

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00z WRF showing a nasty line of storms around 7:00pm tonight near OMA/LNK...right where SPC is showing the Enhanced Outlook for today...

 

 

 

wrf-arw_ref_frzn_ncus_24.png

 

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1525172602347

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Yup the 10% tornado risk is down in KS. ****. Primary hail threats are the worst.

 

Not even good for chasers down there as most activity looks to be after sunset. This is awful for everyone, yay!!!!

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I have to give props to my local ABC Meteorologist, not that I am happy about it.   He called it on severe weather missing our area to the west and north last night and to the southeast today.  Well this crapped out from 80-100% chances just a few days ago.  Now it is 50 degrees with low clouds and a cool north wind.  Boring.  Didn't even get a drop of rain.  

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So models are pretty consistent with a linear storm mode thru here tonight. Linear systems are fun. Not as fun as supercells, but still fun. And discrete supercells can't be ruled out. SRH values of ~250 m2 s-2 at 0-1km would suggest embedded rotation within said line as well. 41kt shear isn't too shabby either.

 

Shame it's at night. Bet this thing will have a killer shelf cloud.

 

If we go by HRRR's word, though, we'll be looking at a hail only threat here. BOOOOOOOOOOO. Let's go WRF models.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Another crazy temp difference from my high and low yesterday (79/29).

 

Currently, sunny and warm w temp @ 70. Making a run for 80F or betta. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Today will be the first 80° of 2018 here in Grand Rapids. The last time it was 80 or better was back on October 9th 2017.  Over the years the mean first 80° at Grand Rapids is April 30th so it is just about the average time of the first 80° day.

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I think North Central/Northeast Kansas, Southeast Nebraska are prime areas for severe weather.  My area is north of the front so my chances appear to be 0%.  This is a fairly typical setup, it seems fronts usually make it just past the Tri-Cities of Central Nebraska and then tend to stall out.  Seen this many times over the years.

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Gorgeous, sunny warm day w temps in the 70s. :)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Already hit 80F and making a run into the mid 80’s. The air has that dry AZ heat feel to it which is making my skin  darn dry. Everything is pretty dusty outside. Can’t wait for the rain tomorrow to wash this out.

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Not sure what the motivation behind a MDT risk for N/C KS was. If they wanted to add a 15% tornado risk there then it'd be understandable, but I don't get the 45% hail risk. If anything hail risk there would be less than here cuz it's gonna be more isolated down there.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Hit 81F in Marshall but fell back now. Not sure GRR's 85F in my grid is gonna happen. Which, btw is fine by me. Don't need to go extreme torch on d1 of the month following historic chill

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Should be a fun night. HRRR looks rather juicy for some discrete supercell action. That was also a rather strongly worded tornado watch from an SPC that has been rather nonchalant in its outlooks. Let's do this.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Gabel23 be careful out there man, that is some strong rotation right by your place.

Waiting patiently to see my next move, might not need to move much to see some action. Earlier had quarter sized hail and got .90 of rain in like 15 minutes! Came down like crazy.

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Doesn't look good for here. Same story as always, seems like everything will pass North or South of Lancaster county. The one cell that MIGHT skirt the Northern edge of the county is weakening. My god this always happens.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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That's it. I'm done. I quit weather. This always happens. Right in between everything. Radar looked promising but it broke apart just in time. Hate to sound like the severe weather version of Snowlover but this happens to us for any given weather event.

kuex_20180501_2319_BR_0.4.png

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Doesn't look good for here. Same story as always, seems like everything will pass North or South of Lancaster county. The one cell that MIGHT skirt the Northern edge of the county is weakening. My god this always happens.

Looks like you may be missed to the southeast and northwest. I feel for you. Same thing here the last 2 days. Hoping for better luck next time.

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Looks like you may be missed to the southeast and northwest. I feel for you. Same thing here the last 2 days. Hoping for better luck next time.

Problem is the cold front set up a county North of where it was originally supposed to. Hoping that gets made up for tomorrow and the severe wx ends up being North again.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Problem is the cold front set up a county North of where it was originally supposed to. Hoping that gets made up for tomorrow and the severe wx ends up being North again.

 

Don't worry, all of us here in Omaha feel your pain with the weather once again! Heck here on the southwest side of the city, it rained for a whole three minutes... oh well, maybe something can still form this evening or overnight around here, and then onto tomorrow.  

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