May 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Chitown folks, remember the historic stretch of snow back in early Feb???

 

 

 

This pattern has just began to cycle back through and we will likely see at least 10 straight days of measurable precip during this pattern.  There may be a day where we don't, but overall, a wet and active pattern is setting up.

 

Where do we go from here???  I'm keeping an eye out for the "Record February East Coast" ridge to blossom the week before Memorial Day weekend and there are already signs the modeling is picking up on it per the CFSv2 Week 2.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_20180510.z500.gif

 

For Marshall, it was 9 out of 10 days from the 2nd to the 11th for a total of 19.5" and the best depth (tho brief) since Feb of 2015. What was ORD's total (or your own if you were tracking amt's on your deck??)

[jaster220]

#ugly..glad I turned the furnace back on.

 

[Tom]

For Marshall, it was 9 out of 10 days from the 2nd to the 11th for a total of 19.5" and the best depth (tho brief) since Feb of 2015. What was ORD's total (or your own if you were tracking amt's on your deck??)

My totals were a bit higher than ORD's during that stretch and I remember it being about 18" or 20".  The southern burbs maxed out close to 22".

[Niko]

Cloudy, windy and cold w temps in the 40s (43F to be exact) UGH! Still dry! Not anymore..just started to rain as I am looking from my homeoffice windows.

[Niko]

#ugly..glad I turned the furnace back on.

 

20180511 11 am Obs for KRMY.PNG

Mine is turned on as well. My cleaning lady complaint this morning that the house was cold. It was down to 66F .

[OKwx2k4]

This is, by far, the windiest late spring that I remember in a long time. I think there has been a steady wind here for what seems like a week.

[westMJim]

With the rain and a cold NE wind the temperature here at both my house and GRR had fallen to 40° this morning (this was late morning mind you) the current temp here at my house is now 41° with light rain falling yet. Up in the UP many locations in the interior fell into the low to mid 20’s but at least two locations fell into the teens. The reported low at Doe Lake (south of Munising) fell to 18° and in  Gwin the reported low was 19° BTY Gwin is in Marquette county. Here is a little info on that town

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwinn,_Michigan

[jaster220]

Mine is turned on as well. My cleaning lady complaint this morning that the house was cold. It was down to 66F .

 

Mine is only kept at about 68F during the day over the winter. I actually will turn it off if I'm cleaning cuz I get too hot 

 

LOLz at temps dropping after my 11 am peek-n-post. We've had several of these chilly daytime readings going right back to last autumn. Funny how the cold/wet pattern has happened on each end of winter but during the heart of winter that combo was primarily elsewhere including way way down in Dixie 

[jaster220]

Mine is only kept at about 68F during the day over the winter. I actually will turn it off if I'm cleaning cuz I get too hot 

 

LOLz at temps dropping after my 11 am peek-n-post. We've had several of these chilly daytime readings going right back to last autumn. Funny how the cold/wet pattern has happened on each end of winter but during the heart of winter that combo was primarily elsewhere including way way down in Dixie 

 

..for example

 

[Tom]

Over the last 30 days, a lot of dryness showing up across the southern MW and into the Plains...we really need nature to deliver the goods next week as I am expecting it to do.  Remember, as always, some spots will get lucky and others not so much.  This is what happens with precipitation patterns in the late Spring/Summer months.

 

[Tom]

It's really quite fascinating, but both the RPM and 18z NAM paint the heaviest corridor of precip right over N IL into N IN through this weekend.  Smack dab where the heaviest snows fell during the Feb 8th-9th snowstorm.  Correlation???  Yes...

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Furnace back on here as well. It was 58F in the house when I came home for lunch. Not acceptable. High of 49F here today. But 83F by Monday.

[Niko]

Mine is only kept at about 68F during the day over the winter. I actually will turn it off if I'm cleaning cuz I get too hot 

 

LOLz at temps dropping after my 11 am peek-n-post. We've had several of these chilly daytime readings going right back to last autumn. Funny how the cold/wet pattern has happened on each end of winter but during the heart of winter that combo was primarily elsewhere including way way down in Dixie 

Crazy indeed. Totally sucks. Had this been Winter...it would have been a pretty nice snowfall for us.

[Niko]

Furnace back on here as well. It was 58F in the house when I came home for lunch. Not acceptable. High of 49F here today. But 83F by Monday.

Had a low this morning in the upper 30s. Would ya believe some people were wearing coats today and I also saw a few wearing hats. Crazy! Never got outta the 40s.

[Niko]

Been raining here most of the day. Definitely over an inch of water fell. Temps remained in the mid 40s. Currently @ 39F.

[Hawkeye]

Latest nam and hrrr are shifting tonight's rain/storms south of Cedar Rapids.  Everything this spring is going north or south.

[Minny_Weather]

Everything this spring is going north or south.

With the exception of last night here, join the club. Except we had the same issue in the Winter too, which I understand you had a lot of the time.

[Jaycee]

It's really quite fascinating, but both the RPM and 18z NAM paint the heaviest corridor of precip right over N IL into N IN through this weekend. Smack dab where the heaviest snows fell during the Feb 8th-9th snowstorm. Correlation??? Yes...

 

 

 

Bullseyes me. Feel like I’m in a pretty awesome spot in general tbh, knock on wood. I also went running earlier today along the lake and almost got frostbite, not even exaggerating. Lake Michigan is a like a refrigerator man it’s insane.

[Tom]

Bullseyes me. Feel like I’m in a pretty awesome spot in general tbh, knock on wood. I also went running earlier today along the lake and almost got frostbite, not even exaggerating. Lake Michigan is a like a refrigerator man it’s insane.

This is my first real Spring experience in Chicago in like 6 or 7 years.  I forgot how bad it can be living by the lake this time of year.  Unfortunately, it's going to take a long time to warm up the lake if we continue to see this wet pattern.  Without any substantial warm periods, its going to struggle to get out of the 60's for a while.  Geeze, I just checked the water temps and they are still holding strong in the mid 40's!  Ya, don't count on dipping into the lake anytime soon.  

 

[Tom]

I just looked at my extended 10 day forecast and each and every day has a northerly wind component.  The idea of this month delivering Canadian HP's (some chilly) is starting to lock in around these parts.  Apparently, it does not look like this pattern changes much heading into the week before Memorial Day weekend.

[Tom]

Ha, this graphic pretty much sums it up around here yesterday...

 

 

 

I'm hearing the first 10 days of May were the warmest of the sat era for the entire CONUS.  It has been delightful around here at times when the warmth was present.

[Tom]

LOT's latest updated graphic advertising the heavy rain threat along the I-80/88 corridor...

 

[OKwx2k4]

This is my first real Spring experience in Chicago in like 6 or 7 years. I forgot how bad it can be living by the lake this time of year. Unfortunately, it's going to take a long time to warm up the lake if we continue to see this wet pattern. Without any substantial warm periods, its going to struggle to get out of the 60's for a while. Geeze, I just checked the water temps and they are still holding strong in the mid 40's! Ya, don't count on dipping into the lake anytime soon.

 

 

Haha. Brrrr! No swimming!

[Niko]

Currently, a chilly 43F w cloudy skies and damp conditions. Very raw outside.

[Niko]

Looks like sunshine will return possibly by tomorrow. Also, warmer temps as well. Yes, my furnace was on again last night as temps bottomed out in the upper 30s (38.7F to be exact).

[Hawkeye]

As expected, most of the heavy rain/storms missed south overnight.  I got a brief thundershower and a quarter inch of rain.  Another cluster of storms is going to be passing south again through the afternoon.  Then, the latest HRRR runs develop some popcorn cells here later this evening, but don't blow it up into a nice complex until it passes it into Illinois.

[Niko]

Pouring rain now as I type this. No thunder and temps are in the low 40s (42F). I am assuming some minor flooding will be occurring.

[Niko]

Sunshine finally came out and turned into a decent Saturday afternoon. Temps approached the upper 50s.

[jaster220]

Just a slight contrast. How ugly is that blue region like KLAN just 40 mi north of mby. Marshall will ride the line with 50F in my grid attm. That could bounce 5 deg's either way and prolly won't know til it's happening..as usual

Actual temp at timestamp was 43F so the RPM busted "high" with it's upper 40's portrayal. Sad

[jaster220]

Pouring rain now as I type this. No thunder and temps are in the low 40s (42F). I am assuming some minor flooding will be occurring.

Was in Birmingham about 3 pm yesterday and there was a lot of flood puddles! Didn't see the Sunshine you mention either?

[jaster220]

So, been stuck in the 40's for the past 53 hrs straight! This is not May, lol. Still better to look out on all the green stuff vs that never-ending brown n grey a couples weeks ago!

[Hawkeye]

Once again, the expected rain/storms overnight was a bust.

[OKwx2k4]

Ha, this graphic pretty much sums it up around here yesterday...

 

 

 

I'm hearing the first 10 days of May were the warmest of the sat era for the entire CONUS. It has been delightful around here at times when the warmth was present.

You know, your post on this makes me wonder if, in around 6-7 months, we don't see it's opposite. That really was a very sudden change to very widespread warmth.

[Tom]

You know, your post on this makes me wonder if, in around 6-7 months, we don't see it's opposite. That really was a very sudden change to very widespread warmth.

Ya, the sudden summer pattern lasted a bit longer than I thought it would up here which caught me off guard.  I'd rather have the AN temps early on in the season than during the middle of summer.  I look at the glass "half full", with that being said, I'm enthusiastic to have another ideal summer around these parts.  Wish I could share the rains we have had of late as ORD picked up another 1.24" overnight and more rounds of heavy rainfall through tomorrow night!

[james1976]

Its been damp, cloudy and cool all weekend. Looks like an MCS is moving this way. Nothing severe expected though.

[Niko]

Was in Birmingham about 3 pm yesterday and there was a lot of flood puddles! Didn't see the Sunshine you mention either?

Ironically, outta nowhere, skies had brighten up a bit and turned into a pretty nice , temporarily afternoon for a couple of hours. Clouds rapidly increased toward evening though and more showers redeveloped.

[Niko]

Currently is mostly cloudy and temps in the 50s. No rain to report thus far. It is looking drier today, but more wet weather next week. Hopefully, some severe weather to track.

[Hawkeye]

Tonight was supposed to be another good chance of storms, but, once again, the latest HRRR runs are showing little if anything falling here.

[Minny_Weather]

Nice cluster headed this direction. Biggest cell looks intense on radar. Not severe quite yet but I wouldn't be surprised to borderline get to that status.

[hlcater]

This May is sucking on epic proportions in terms of severe wx. Well BA and looks like the next 2 weeks will likely end up BA as well. We've got moisture, but we've also got massive height rises and no upper flow. Where is the upper flow you ask? Canada. Fantastic. 2018 may end up being the worst year for everywhere on records. Didn't even know it was possible to suck so bad. I need to be let out of this crummy decade.