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May 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Your map is since the 11th which my map doesn’t take into account. I’m sure our area is right around those totals if you add those up. ORD is 3.33” above normal for precipitation thus far for the month.

 

One must lay all his best cards on the table if he expects to win  :lol:  Ofc, I saw yours was a 2-day total so I pounced. GRR's been updating with higher frequency than normal

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Beautiful day w plentiful sunshine and temps in the 70s. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Some of you have done very well this month, with repeated rounds of heavy rain.  Meanwhile, I'm sitting at only 1.81", below avg halfway through the month.  Given the extended forecast, we may end up below avg for the entire month.

I am much above for the month of May. Just the past 4 days, I picked up over 3.75". More came today, which I didn't add to that total.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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One must lay all his best cards on the table if he expects to win  :lol:  Ofc, I saw yours was a 2-day total so I pounced. GRR's been updating with higher frequency than normal

Last 7-days....

 

 

 

 

precip_7d_accum_greatlakes_2018051512.pn

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Man, the EC is going to get hammered w severe t'stms. Strong CF coming for them.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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0.76" on the month now. Our May average is 4.29". As has been the case with every "active pattern" for the past 5 years here, QPF has trended downward next weekend. We might limp our way to an inch for the month this weekend. Meh. This whole year has sucked.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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man the storms are hauling *ss in the northeast. Try to keep up with these storms :o

 

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD...NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN...PASSAIC...
NORTHWESTERN UNION...BERGEN...ESSEX...WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM
AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES...

At 405 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Wallkill to near High Point to near Dingmans
Ferry to Stormville to near Tamaqua, moving east at 110 mph.

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man the storms are hauling *ss in the northeast. Try to keep up with these storms :o

 

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT

FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD...NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN...PASSAIC...

NORTHWESTERN UNION...BERGEN...ESSEX...WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM

AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES...

 

At 405 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line

extending from near Wallkill to near High Point to near Dingmans

Ferry to Stormville to near Tamaqua, moving east at 110 mph.

Holy moly!

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Some cool cloud formations coming in off the lake when the winds picked up off the lake this afternoon...the sky scrapers causing almost a "ripple" effect like a rock in the middle of a stream...

 

DdRCvtqXcAAFSeP.jpg

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Some cool cloud formations coming in off the lake when the winds picked up off the lake this afternoon...the sky scrapers causing almost a "ripple" effect like a rock in the middle of a stream...

 

Time to call the Ghostbusters.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Model consensus between the GFS/EURO is coming together for a "NE Soaker" this weekend.  Both models painting at least 1" of much needed moisture across the entire state, except for OMA if you believe the Euro...00z GFS suggesting widespread 2"+ across the state...

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_19.png

 

 

 

@ CentralNeb, this would be one hellova squall line if the high rez NAM verifies for early Friday morning!

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_54.png

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00z Euro Control also agreeing with the idea of ample moisture across the ag belt across NE/IA and into the drought stricken regions of the central Plains.  Much needed drought relief for those farmers.

 

DdUktenXkAEnfTz.jpg

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Gorgeous morning outside w plentiful sunshine.  Temps will be into the 70s. All week looks sweet!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Last 7-days....

 

 

 

 

precip_7d_accum_greatlakes_2018051512.pn

 

Nice map. If you're in Cook (I think you are) then it looks like Marshall narrowly edged you out by an increment or so. Too much rain for both of us. BC is now 6" above normal precip year to date, but lol @ being 8" BEHIND last year at this time! Thankfully, my basement is remaining a manageable mess this go-round.

 

Now do a map for the month and I’ll win

 

You're only in this contest if yby was a pond sometime Mon/Tues  :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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man the storms are hauling *ss in the northeast. Try to keep up with these storms :o

 

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT

FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD...NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN...PASSAIC...

NORTHWESTERN UNION...BERGEN...ESSEX...WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM

AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES...

 

At 405 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line

extending from near Wallkill to near High Point to near Dingmans

Ferry to Stormville to near Tamaqua, moving east at 110 mph.

 

There's your culprit  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Lots of trees uprooted in and around the Queens, NY area told by family and friends. Powerlines were down as well. They were mean looking storms.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@Jaster...did you notice any Meteotsunami by lake MI recently. TWC reported that 2 occurred this past Sunday. :o

 

Def of a Meteotsunami: A meteotsunami or meteorological tsunami is a tsunami-like wave of meteorological origin. Meteotsunamis are generated when rapid changes in barometric pressure cause the displacement of a body of water. ... Meteotsunamis are restricted to local effects because they lack the energy available to significant seismic tsunami.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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00z Euro Control also agreeing with the idea of ample moisture across the ag belt across NE/IA and into the drought stricken regions of the central Plains.  Much needed drought relief for those farmers.

 

DdUktenXkAEnfTz.jpg

Local Mets. talking a wide area of 1-3" or more this weekend across Nebraska.  NWS Hastings mentioned that with the dryness we have experienced, this amount of rainfall should not cause any flooding concerns like it normally would if the ground was saturated.  I am sure it will depend on how intense rainfall rates are in thunderstorms.  Would be nice if this can verify.

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It was a nice day, but 82 is pretty warm without any breeze.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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How's the memorial day weekend looking?

Nice and warm but I think a front comes through Sat night into Sun bringing a chance of storms around the GL's.  Should clear up by Memorial Day.  It doesn't look like a washout weekend like we can get this time of year.

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Why will there will be a tropical storm around May 25th coming out of the GOM near FL???  Way back on Jan 3rd/4th there was a piece of energy that came out of the GOM, near N FL, that eventually tracked up near the Carolina's and became a major Nor'Easter that bombed out in a major Blizzard.  This pattern will cycle through right before MDW and right on schedule.  I know people trash the GFS, but it was the first model that jumped on this idea believe it or not.

 

00z EPS showing the potential now in the extended...

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_watl_10.png

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The JMA weeklies suggest seasonal temps Week 2 and a wetter pattern across a majority of our sub forum.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201805.D1612_gl2.png

Below is the rain forecast...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201805.D1612_gl0.png

 

 

 

I'm not sure what to believe for it's Week 3-4 outlook, but it paints BN temps where the drought is the strongest near the TX Panhandle region.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201805.D1612_gl2.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201805.D1612_gl0.png

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@Jaster...did you notice any Meteotsunami by lake MI recently. TWC reported that 2 occurred this past Sunday. :o

 

Def of a Meteotsunami: A meteotsunami or meteorological tsunami is a tsunami-like wave of meteorological origin. Meteotsunamis are generated when rapid changes in barometric pressure cause the displacement of a body of water. ... Meteotsunamis are restricted to local effects because they lack the energy available to significant seismic tsunami.

 

The link you had posted I watched, and it looked like those were the ones that hit earlier this spring during some storm(s). At least the footage looked to be the same I had seen before from the marina in Manistee for  example. Not aware of anything new hitting this past Sunday. Considering the rarity I doubt it. That photo of the lighthouse and pier at Ludington being completely submerged is nuts. My sis lived there when I was a kid and I walked out to the end (it's a very long break-water perhaps 1/2 mile) every year. And it's way above the water line. I hope no fishermen were caught unawares when that came up suddenly. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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..and related  :)

 

 From DTX:

 

"The Lake Huron undisturbed water level is nearly 3

feet above chart datum. The high water level combined with the
high wave action will have potential to result in minor
shoreline flooding and erosion. Damage to docks, boat lifts,
or watercraft anchored along the shoreline will also be
possible."

 

Lake levels appear to be making a comeback with all this rainfall after years of being way too low. I know Grand Traverse Bay got to where some water front hotels near my old place had the water line recede 100 feet or more with vegetation growing up and making a mess for the guests. I moved out of there in early '98 and I think it was worst about 5 yrs later. Then it was kind of a staggered recovery ever since. When my folks had a cottage on Lk Huron back in the mid-50s to mid-60s those were also a "low water" cycle. Their beach was 100 ft long. So long actually, that they had to lay boards down to walk up to the cottage and back or you burned your feet on a hot day. Later in the late 70's the water was practically up to the cottage. The current owners were forced to build a sea wall to protect the foundation from being undercut during a storm. There was virtually zero beach during the late 70's to the peak height around '86. While the GL's don't see the tides you get on the oceans, there can be quite the water level variation during one's life time. Oh, and the occasional wx related phenomena like those Meteotsunamis high-lighted by TWC that hit lake Michigan with the storms this spring. I didn't realize there were actually 2 of those kinda back-to-back. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The link you had posted I watched, and it looked like those were the ones that hit earlier this spring during some storm(s). At least the footage looked to be the same I had seen before from the marina in Manistee for  example. Not aware of anything new hitting this past Sunday. Considering the rarity I doubt it. That photo of the lighthouse and pier at Ludington being completely submerged is nuts. My sis lived there when I was a kid and I walked out to the end (it's a very long break-water perhaps 1/2 mile) every year. And it's way above the water line. I hope no fishermen were caught unawares when that came up suddenly. 

Hope so. Can you imagine fishing and all of a sudden you see a Meteotsunami, or experience it outta nowhere. Geez!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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..and related  :)

 

 From DTX:

 

"The Lake Huron undisturbed water level is nearly 3

feet above chart datum. The high water level combined with the

high wave action will have potential to result in minor

shoreline flooding and erosion. Damage to docks, boat lifts,

or watercraft anchored along the shoreline will also be

possible."

 

Lake levels appear to be making a comeback with all this rainfall after years of being way too low. I know Grand Traverse Bay got to where some water front hotels near my old place had the water line recede 100 feet or more with vegetation growing up and making a mess for the guests. I moved out of there in early '98 and I think it was worst about 5 yrs later. Then it was kind of a staggered recovery ever since. When my folks had a cottage on Lk Huron back in the mid-50s to mid-60s those were also a "low water" cycle. Their beach was 100 ft long. So long actually, that they had to lay boards down to walk up to the cottage and back or you burned your feet on a hot day. Later in the late 70's the water was practically up to the cottage. The current owners were forced to build a sea wall to protect the foundation from being undercut during a storm. There was virtually zero beach during the late 70's to the peak height around '86. While the GL's don't see the tides you get on the oceans, there can be quite the water level variation during one's life time. Oh, and the occasional wx related phenomena like those Meteotsunamis high-lighted by TWC that hit lake Michigan with the storms this spring. I didn't realize there were actually 2 of those kinda back-to-back. 

Makes you wonder if this is the beginning for something bigger.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Another sunny, gorgeous day today w temps approaching well into the 70s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hands down, one of the best 7-day stretches of the season thus far...

 

 

DdTpSB2WAAAMdFh.jpg

 

Must be sweet. While not a complete washout like this past weekend, the forecast has trended wetter both Sat and Sunday over here in the Mitt. Then it gets sunny and nice again Tue->Thur then more rain in the picture for the MDW.  :rolleyes:  When will we catch a nice n dry weekend??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Latest views of Mt Ripley from Michigan Tech webcams at Houghton.

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ski-hill/motion.html

and

 https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ripley/motion.html

Those patches of snow want to really hang on.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hope so. Can you imagine fishing and all of a sudden you see a Meteotsunami, or experience it outta nowhere. Geez!

That stuff makes you wonder. It has always made wonder if that's not what took the 'Fitz' down back in '75. It had all the ingredients in place. Enhanced storm pressure and a high underwater surface gradient would have made a perfect sudden tsunami event like this. There would have been no warning or way to prepare for it at all.

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