May 2018 Observations and Discussion

[gabel23]

This sums it up guys, that darn platte river played its hand again as the storms stayed just to the south. Was good for me as I'm located just to the south; glad I missed out on the baseball sized hail that fell in Butler County. Received 1.6" of rain. 

[Minny_Weather]

This sums it up guys, that darn platte river played its hand again as the storms stayed just to the south. Was good for me as I'm located just to the south; glad I missed out on the baseball sized hail that fell in Butler County. Received 1.6" of rain. 

It's always hilarious how the Platte acts as a forcefield for weather. Nothing is ever able to cross the Platte, heaviest rain/snow must stay North or South.

[Hawkeye]

While I did get a bit of thunder and a few seconds of pea size hail this morning, it was a tiny, very brief cell that only dropped a few hundredths of an inch of rain.  Everything else has gone around me today... mostly north.

[Money]

More whining smh

[NEJeremy]

What a day in Kansas! Somewhat disappointing in the end, but plenty of action. First came upon a previously tornado warned storm from the north and had to let the hail core go by us. When we came around the back side of the storm we had very rapidly rotating wall cloud and 2.5"-3.5" hail stones all over the place. The wall cloud fell apart, and we continued on with the storm. We eventually got out ahead of it on I-70 and were filling up with gas with about 40 other chasers north of Ellsworth, when suddenly another large funnel formed to the southwest. This one came 2/3 of the way to the ground before falling apart as well. We continued on with this storm having to go a way ahead of it on I-70 before the next exit that would allow us to go north. We went north maybe a mile or 2 off the interstate with the main action still to our north a bit. However, we suddenly had an area of rotating rain curtains come at us from the southwest, so we jumped north a bit.

Got out of the car, and was basically right under this rapidly rotating area just to our south by about 1/4 mile with the rotating rain curtains. I kept watching for something to come down but didn't see anything. Soon we got blasted by RFD though and I knew this thing was close to producing as it moved to our east.

We started east down some gravel roads to try and keep up with it and could start to see the bowl of the tornado start to form but it wasn't fully condensed. Soon we either hit a T in the road or the roads turned really shitty(can't remember which) and we rapidly started to lose the storm. We could see what looked like a rather large tornado off in the distance to our east but it was hopeless to try and catch the storm with the roads. We have a 4Runner with huge mud tires and 4 wheel drive but still...

This tornado was the wedge of the day as it passed near several small towns in north central KS. We finally got back to a highway and blasted east as a new area of circulation formed and the original tornado occluded. We were able to see the white tornado as it roped out about 10 miles to our north but we flew east towards Bennington KS where the new circulation was going just to the north of town. Here again we had to take gravel roads which were ok. It was almost dark now though and we were able to see one more back lit by lightning funnel before we ran into a dead end road.

At this point we started back west where we ran into pure slop and was sure we'd end up in the ditch. Saw about 3 other chasers that did end up in the ditch after sliding off the road.

Eventually made it back to pavement and now am in Wichita for tomorrow's chase!

Will post some pics, etc later!

[Minny_Weather]

More whining smh

Snowlover's gone. You can quit the troll spiel.

[Tom]

It's a balmy 71F with a noticeable increase in DP's this morning (51F).  You could have fooled me that we time warped into late July/early Aug.  Feels great actually and quite excited to see some storms tonight into tomorrow.

[Tom]

Wow, what a huge wedge tornado in Culver, KS...

 

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/991493231828447237

 

 

[Tom]

00z WRF, which nailed yesterday's event, is showing a nasty bow echo forming out of KS and tracking close to LNK around dinner time today and into the KC region.

 

[Tom]

In other news, for those who follow the suns solar activity and the impending solar minimum, today's write up on Spaceweather.com was one of the more interesting ones I've read this year.  It appears the sun is falling asleep much quicker than NASA's models and forecasts.  Is it a surprise NASA is sending a mission to our biggest star this summer??  You can find the link here for this mission to the sun.  The fact that our gov't is taking a big step into studying our sun is of great importance for humanity.  Something is brewing and we will all be effected by the suns activity.

[St Paul Storm]

Picked up about 0.2” of rain overnight with the storms. Had a few close lightning strikes but was otherwise just a garden variety storm. The rains really greened up the grass. I don’t use fertilizer because of the lake so I’ll take all the natural green I can get.

[Tom]

Looks like the latest HRRR is picking up on a cluster of storms for Chitown between 7:00-8:00 pm...training storms overnight looking likely...

 

[Tom]

I'm sure this is a well deserved break from the heat in AZ.  May snow showers in the mountains of N AZ where I love to hike:

 

 

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS
MORNING ABOVE 6500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions.
Additional snow accumulations of up to an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Western Mogollon Rim, Eastern Mogollon Rim and Oak
Creek and Sycamore Canyons.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Look for reduced visibilities at times.

Additional snow forecast from 3 AM Today to 11 AM Today:

Doney Park 0 to 1 INCHES Flagstaff 0 to 1 INCHES
Forest Lakes 0 to 1 INCHES Heber-Overgaard 0 to 1 INCHES
Williams 1 to 2 INCHES

[Minny_Weather]

Oh NOW the cold front moves way South. If it had done that yesterday we'd have had severe weather.

[Minny_Weather]

00z WRF, which nailed yesterday's event, is showing a nasty bow echo forming out of KS and tracking close to LNK around dinner time today and into the KC region.

 

That thing looks nasty as it develops more and more.

[Niko]

Some thunderstorms over the next couple of days here IMBY. Turning cooler by the weekend w plentiful sunshine.

[gabel23]

It's always hilarious how the Platte acts as a forcefield for weather. Nothing is ever able to cross the Platte, heaviest rain/snow must stay North or South.

Never was a believer but seeing this play out more and more is turning me into one! 

[Hawkeye]

I'm not liking the way this is going.  First, we basically get nothing yesterday overnight through this morning, so round one was a dud.  That's not a huge deal, though, because tonight was supposed to be the big night.  However, now the models are trying to shift everything south.  The 12z 3k nam has tonight's big storms and heavy rain down in Missouri, for crying out loud.  It had looked good for widespread 2-4 inches of rain around here.  Now, I'm concerned we may not even get 1 inch before the system leaves late Thursday.  The 3k nam has no rain here through midday Thursday.  ZERO!!!!  As dry as it has been, that would be a kick to the nuts.

[westMJim]

If it does not get below 61 before midnight today. Grand Rapids will set a new warmest minimum temperature for May 5^th of course the current warmest minimum of 60° for today is the coldest warmest minimum between April 12^th and October 25^th

[bud2380]

Hmmm, where do you suppose the front is located?

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Hmmm, where do you suppose the front is located?

 

 

Urban heat island is real over Sioux City 

[hlcater]

The NAMs are certainly trying hard to troll me into S IA tomorrow along the triple point. Pulling some nice soundings down there and the SPC has a 10% hatched in the vicinity.

[Hawkeye]

Now the GFS has dropped the heavy rain tonight.  The HRRR continues to keep everything south as well.  This sucks.

[bud2380]

The HRRR does show storms rollilng into Iowa City/CR late this evening, but even though this looks somewhat impressive on the model, the qpf doesn't look as impressive. Showing over 1/2" for my area though and I'd be satisfied with that.  

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018050214/014/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018050214/016/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

[Stormgeek]

Looking like a pretty nasty setup down there in OK/KS. Everyone be safe!

[Niko]

It actually feels a little humid out there. Thankfully, we are outta the "Fire Zone."

[Niko]

Currently @ 80F w windy conditions, but no storms yet.

[jaster220]

85F currently at Midway??  All about wind direction this time of year in the windy city! Friday's warmth is gone, so is the sunshine..sigh. Spring's just too volatile in the Midwest for any reliable planning. Saturday's at least looking sunny..we'll see tho.  

[Hawkeye]

The dewpoint is up to 65 here.  However, it's cloudy and only 75, with a decent breeze, so it feels quite good.

[Tom]

85F currently at Midway??  All about wind direction this time of year in the windy city! Friday's warmth is gone, so is the sunshine..sigh. Spring's just too volatile in the Midwest for any reliable planning. Saturday's at least looking sunny..we'll see tho.  

85F with a 56F dewpoint...feels great and summery!  I've been waiting for this all to long.

[jaster220]

85F with a 56F dewpoint...feels great and summery!  I've been waiting for this all to long.

 

Only 75F across the lake with the onshore southerly wind. More typical and quite pleasant I'll add. Enjoy! 

[Tom]

Ahhh, getting my first real taste of spring time thunder along with a brief heavy shower. Smells refreshing! More storms firing up to my west.

[St Paul Storm]

Ahhh, getting my first real taste of spring time thunder along with a brief heavy shower. Smells refreshing! More storms firing up to my west.

Radar looking good. My coworker in Lisle says it’s looking nasty to the west.

[Tom]

Radar looking good. My coworker in Lisle says it’s looking nasty to the west.

Yup!  It seems like forever since I've been able to enjoy a day like today.  I think N IL is sitting pretty good for some training storms over the next 36 hours.  Today feels like a late July/early August day with the heat and somewhat humid day.

[bud2380]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for I-80 south in eastern Iowa.  I haven't seen a graphic yet, just a text version.  Does not include Linn County (Cedar Rapids).  

[Jaycee]

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like we have some decent rain coming in. Not as fun as severe storms but as dry as we've been recently I'll take a good soaker.

[Tom]

Numerous severe warned storms are firing up across N IL in the more soupy airmass.  DP's have risen into the mid 60's...tonight has the summer feel to it.  Gosh, how I have missed this type of evening.  My neighbors A/C is humming for the first time this year.

[Hawkeye]

It was certainly warm and humid this afternoon.  Unfortunately, the storms are firing to the south as expected, so I just have to hope a decent rain shield can lift far enough north to get CR later.

[Minny_Weather]

We at least got enough rain for it to pond on the roads. First time I've been able to say that since mid-March. Onto tomorrow then it looks like we hold off on rain chances for a while.