May 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

00z EPS seems to agree that primarily anyone from I-80 on north will see the heaviest rains over the next work week...

 

[Hawkeye]

I really hope we can get some good rainfall this weekend.  Last night's models pushed much of it north again into areas that got crushed by snow last month and then crushed by rain last week.  Much of the southern half of Iowa remains abnormally dry or even in moderate drought.  We only got 0.89" of rain from the last system and the soil is already dry again.

[Minny_Weather]

Every tree has at least started growing leaves in the city, and some have finished or almost finished. There are still a few holdouts in rural areas but it's any time now for them. 63.0*F.

[westMJim]

with today's set up the western UP of Michigan will be much warmer than areas of southern Michigan.  This set up happens several times a year mostly in the summer and early fall.

The nice warm temperatures have made the grass very green in western Michigan and the leaves are starting to come out on more trees now. Also one note this week starts the Tulip Festival in Holland Michigan. It can be a good one time event if you like seeing spring flowers. Today tomorrow and Wednesday the weather will be great for a short visit 

[Niko]

Sunny and very nice today w temps making it into the middle 60s.

[Niko]

Lets hope Hawaii gets better (Kilauea, Hawaii is get hammered). Lava is destroying lots of homes there. Thank god I have no property there.

[jaster220]

The Land of 10,000 Lakes is smashing all-time ice-outs....

 

I saw the post that you copied with the prior record in May of 1857 and thought to myself "the only reason 1880-81 is considered the worst winter in the US and not 1856-57 is likely due only to the lack of formal data since the government weather bureau had yet to be in existence".

 

I know most of Michigan was an un-harvested wilderness as late as the 1850's. The furthest west railroad (strap style) ended in Marshall at the time. North of here was more or less wilderness accessed by horseback or hiking. Some earliest communities were developing along/around the waterways such as Saginaw and Bay City where they do have some records of a massive blizzard during the 1856-57 winter. That must have been a monster long winter. 

[St Paul Storm]

Currently 85 with RH of 9% on my weather station. It’s bone dry outside and my skin is screaming at me for moisture. I don’t think I’ve seen single digit readings before.

[OKwx2k4]

I saw the post that you copied with the prior record in May of 1857 and thought to myself "the only reason 1880-81 is considered the worst winter in the US and not 1856-57 is likely due only to the lack of formal data since the government weather bureau had yet to be in existence".

 

I know most of Michigan was an un-harvested wilderness as late as the 1850's. The furthest west railroad (strap style) ended in Marshall at the time. North of here was more or less wilderness accessed by horseback or hiking. Some earliest communities were developing along/around the waterways such as Saginaw and Bay City where they do have some records of a massive blizzard during the 1856-57 winter. That must have been a monster long winter.

You're correct. You would almost have to sift through war and expeditionary correspondences from that era to paint an accurate picture of the incredible weather in some of those seasons from 1840-1865 or so. From my understanding, it was brutal in many seasons.

[westMJim]

While it is still way too early in the month to guess how the month will end up but the first 7 days of this May have all been above average looking back there have been many years where May started out just as warm here is a list of a few of them. 1896, 1982, 1998, 1934. 1964, and 1965. One May that kind of stands out is May of 1965. May of 1965 was much warmer than average after a much colder than average April. May of 1965 started out very warm even warmer than this year as the temperature reached 89 on the 7th and 85 on the 8th There was a big cool down the last week of the month. But 1965 is one good analog year to look at. That summer June, July and August were all cooler than average. Could that be the summer of 2018??

[jaster220]

You're correct. You would almost have to sift through war and expeditionary correspondences from that era to paint an accurate picture of the incredible weather in some of those seasons from 1840-1865 or so. From my understanding, it was brutal in many seasons.

 

I've seen 1864 mentioned more than once as hitting OH with an historic storm and harsh winter now that you mention it..

[NEJeremy]

Another day in the 80s today. Should end up with 8 days in a row of 80s before we cool down this weekend

[Niko]

Not a cloud to be found in the sky today. Spectacular. Temps in the upper 70s.

[OKwx2k4]

I've seen 1864 mentioned more than once as hitting OH with an historic storm and harsh winter now that you mention it..

Check out "The History of the City of Grand Rapids, Michigan" on google.books. Its a free PDF or ebook download. There's a chapter about winter weather in it that's pretty detailed, at least to my skimming eyes.

 

I wound up studying Michigan a bit by accident when I spotted the name of a man whom I believe to be a great ancestor of mine. There is a park named "Crittenden" after him in or around Howell.

 

Edit:sorry for reposting/editing. Noticed an autocorrect typo.

[OKwx2k4]

Record high from 1956 tied today in McAlester, OK @ 89°F. Tulsa has hit or exceeded 90°F three days in a row. If they hit or exceed 90° tomorrow, it will be the first such 4 day stretch for them at 90°+ in the month of May. #MayHEATwaveOK

[Tom]

Let the season begin...the first Mesoscale Vortex (MCV) of the season spinning through DVN this morning...

 

[Tom]

Here was yesterday's 12z EPS mean total precip over the next 2 weeks....#WetAgBelt

 

 

 

 

 

00z GEFS continue the wet and warm theme through the extended.  You can pretty much say, summer is here to stay as the southern Plains begin their quick start to Summer and the LRC continues to cycle ushering in quite an active weather pattern across the mid section of the nation.

 

The next 10 days should bring some good chances of rainfall across the central Plains where it has been dry as farmers are begging nature to deliver some moisture.

 

 

 Week 2 looks ideal...the most active part of this year's cycling pattern hitting the ag belt quite well.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

NAM and Euro are both god awful for here this weekend. We may or may not get a drop with their solutions.

[Hawkeye]

I hope those med/long-range models are right about the abundant moisture.  Once again, all the rain from the latest system has gone around us.  I think we got a couple hundredths this morning.

[St Paul Storm]

Picked up about 0.3” last night. Looks like another 1” or so coming Thursday into Friday. High of only 49F on Friday. It’s going to be a shock to the system after 70s and 80s the last 2 weeks.

[Tom]

Picked up about 0.3” last night. Looks like another 1” or so coming Thursday into Friday. High of only 49F on Friday. It’s going to be a shock to the system after 70s and 80s the last 2 weeks.

When it was bone dry the other day, didn't the airmass feel like you were in AZ?  Your RH was in the single digits which is practically desert-like and rather rare across the upper MW.

[Tom]

Wow, that first "mini" line of storms that just passed my area across N Cook county was like a tropical downpour....2nd batch knocking on the door...

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180509.1212.gif

[westMJim]

The 3 chilly saints are right on time this year. With the colder temperatures and rain expected north of the warm front this weekend. While it will be much warmer to our south here in Michigan temperatures look to stay in the 40’s with some 50’s on Friday and only in the 50’s (maybe) on Saturday.

Here is some info on the 3 chilly saints.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2013/may/10/weatherwatch-cold-may-ice-saints

and

https://addins.kwwl.com/blogs/weatherwhys/2010/05/the-three-chilly-saints

[Tom]

[BrianJK]

3rd warmest start to May in Chicago. Hopefully that theme continues for several months. Would be nice to enjoy a long summer season this year.

 

Just got dumped on by these storms moving through. Pretty impressive rainfall rates albeit short lived. More to come...

[OKwx2k4]

Let the season begin...the first Mesoscale Vortex (MCV) of the season spinning through DVN this morning...

That MCV looks like a weak tropical cyclone. That's pretty cool.

[jaster220]

Check out "The History of the City of Grand Rapids, Michigan" on google.books. Its a free PDF or ebook download. There's a chapter about winter weather in it that's pretty detailed, at least to my skimming eyes.

 

I wound up studying Michigan a bit by accident when I spotted the name of a man whom I believe to be a great ancestor of mine. There is a park named "Crittenden" after him in or around Howell.

 

Edit:sorry for reposting/editing. Noticed an autocorrect typo.

 

Awesome! Thx

[St Paul Storm]

When it was bone dry the other day, didn't the airmass feel like you were in AZ?  Your RH was in the single digits which is practically desert-like and rather rare across the upper MW.

I couldn’t believe how dry it felt. It was definitely like being in the desert. I’m not a huge fan of humidity and heat, but I’ll take that combo over a dry heat any day.

[jaster220]

[Niko]

Another gorgeous day. Temps will be approaching near 80F. Big, brief cooldown by Friday where highs might be stuck in the upper 40s. Nice recovery on Saturday w temp right back up in the 70s.

[Niko]

My grass has turned so much greener. It looks awesome. It also looks longer. I guess its time to start cutting soon.

[Madtown]

Ice out May 6th....this is from May 5th. Still enjoying the northwoods this week, but cooler.

[jaster220]

The 3 chilly saints are right on time this year. With the colder temperatures and rain expected north of the warm front this weekend. While it will be much warmer to our south here in Michigan temperatures look to stay in the 40’s with some 50’s on Friday and only in the 50’s (maybe) on Saturday.

Here is some info on the 3 chilly saints.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2013/may/10/weatherwatch-cold-may-ice-saints

and

https://addins.kwwl.com/blogs/weatherwhys/2010/05/the-three-chilly-saints

 

Never heard of those tbh. 

[Tom]

Both the Euro/GFS show temps primarily in the upper 30's across WI on Friday with highs reaching lower 40's, low 50's in N IL into MI.  Friday is going to absolutely suck around here.  I think the furnace will be needed.  That will be a smack in the face.

 

12z Euro indicating huge rain totals (2-4") during Mother's Day weekend across IA/N IL/S WI...#washout, except for Mother's day where it counts 

[Niko]

Beautiful evening out there after a few weak showers passed on through. Some more embedded thundershowers later tanite.

[WBadgersW]

Talk about being caught off guard with a tornado warning. Right durning track practice...

 

Confirmed sighting just west of me.

[BrianJK]

My parents who live Elmwood Park (just a few miles from me) reported massive trees uprooted and landing on peoples cars and homes along with hail from this evenings storms. Going to flip on WGN and see if they have any footage on the 9:00 news. Tom - anything like that up by you? That same storm barley brushed me and the sun was actually out during all of it.

[Tom]

My parents who live Elmwood Park (just a few miles from me) reported massive trees uprooted and landing on peoples cars and homes along with hail from this evenings storms. Going to flip on WGN and see if they have any footage on the 9:00 news. Tom - anything like that up by you? That same storm barley brushed me and the sun was actually out during all of it.

No, it tracked south of me but I did get another smaller cell to come through during that period. All in all, it was a decent day of storms and warmth. A touch humid which felt nice. Hope your P’s place doesn’t have to much damage.

[Jaycee]

My parents who live Elmwood Park (just a few miles from me) reported massive trees uprooted and landing on peoples cars and homes along with hail from this evenings storms. Going to flip on WGN and see if they have any footage on the 9:00 news. Tom - anything like that up by you? That same storm barley brushed me and the sun was actually out during all of it.

For some reason my last post was formatted weird so hopefully this one comes through better. This sucker came right over me and gave its last hurrah over my area. There was minor damage around here but my gosh the initial wind was incredible so I’m not surprised elm wood got smoked!

 

Here’s a video I took as it rolled through! https://youtu.be/wcDd3qrbb14

[OKwx2k4]

For some reason my last post was formatted weird so hopefully this one comes through better. This sucker came right over me and gave its last hurrah over my area. There was minor damage around here but my gosh the initial wind was incredible so I’m not surprised elm wood got smoked!

 

Here’s a video I took as it rolled through! https://youtu.be/wcDd3qrbb14

Holy smokes! Nice sideways rain!