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May 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The 3 chilly saints are right on time this year. With the colder temperatures and rain expected north of the warm front this weekend. While it will be much warmer to our south here in Michigan temperatures look to stay in the 40’s with some 50’s on Friday and only in the 50’s (maybe) on Saturday.

Here is some info on the 3 chilly saints.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2013/may/10/weatherwatch-cold-may-ice-saints

and

https://addins.kwwl.com/blogs/weatherwhys/2010/05/the-three-chilly-saints

This is something I hadn't heard of either. Thanks for sharing the weather lore.

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For some reason my last post was formatted weird so hopefully this one comes through better. This sucker came right over me and gave its last hurrah over my area. There was minor damage around here but my gosh the initial wind was incredible so I’m not surprised elm wood got smoked!

 

Here’s a video I took as it rolled through! https://youtu.be/wcDd3qrbb14

The first video on your channel was a lot more interesting tbh.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The thunderstorms here at my house last night had a good amount of lightning a few good claps of thunder, no wind during the storms, (there was some wind about one hour before the storms) and only 0.32” of rain. So while a nice little thunderstorm not much for having a “severe thunderstorm warning”

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With the 3 Chilly Saints knocking at our door this weekend looks cold and wet. In fact there is now snow noted in the forecast for Saturday morning north of M 46. Should not stick on the ground but there is a chance it might be colder yet and stick. Of course there freeze warning from M 20 northward. That may have to be extended south depending on just how cold it becomes,

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After an abysmal couple of days ahead around here, summer is back next week near the GL's and a very active/wet pattern sets up as all the models are honing in on a "Central Plains Soaker"...there are a couple periods next week that have severe wx potential (15th-17th) and then (19th-21st).

 

 

00z EPS Week 2...

 

Dc1La_mWAAAk6Ds.jpg

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GFS really blew it with the "cool shot" for the areas as far south as me. No more below average this far south for the foreseeable future. Happy June in May to me. :Puke: :/

The fast start to Summer begins down by you, but your not the only one. An early season heat wave across the S MW as well with temps near 90F early next week! It’s been dry in these areas as well. #MayHeat

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The fast start to Summer begins down by you, but your not the only one. An early season heat wave across the S MW as well with temps near 90F early next week! It’s been dry in these areas as well. #MayHeat

Yeah. I shouldn't gripe. I hope the folks up north get the rain that they need. If I'm still stuck in this mess after July 15th, I'll have a legit gripe.

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Clouds and sun currently....but, unsettle weather is likely over the weekend. Temps will cool off b/4 warming back up into the 70s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like maybe some severe weather for tomorrow for my area. Depends on how strong the dynamics are.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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After watching some vid's on social media, that was a large wedge tornado yesterday in SE WI.  Here's a short vid: 

 

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/994358538603556864

 

Friday is going to suck around here...esp near MKE...

 

Dc1IjHGX4AAUkdk.jpg

 

Just a slight contrast. How ugly is that blue region like KLAN just 40 mi north of mby. Marshall will ride the line with 50F in my grid attm. That could bounce 5 deg's either way and prolly won't know til it's happening..as usual

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like maybe some severe weather for tomorrow for my area. Depends on how strong the dynamics are.

 

:huh:  ?? looks more like a strata-form rainer to my eyes

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Cedar Rapids has averaged a high of 80 degrees through the first ten days of May.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Night severe weather threat. Bleh. Let's get this over with so I can get back to bed.

 

OAX already jumping the gun, issuing a SVR warning when the line is still a county away from even entering the CWA. It seems like half the people in the warning may just get the severe wind from the outflow boundary without even getting a drop of rain. No thank you. Give me rain or go home.

 

Good (?) news is that these are training, so our chances of getting a soaking even without any precip from the severe storm are decent.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Looks like the storms are weakening below severe limits about 2 or so counties away from here. I'd expect that trend to continue. OAX really should have been a bit more patient with issuing the warning. There was no need to issue it an hour before a hypothetical severe storm would even enter the CWA.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Here we go!

 

 

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
334 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2018

The National Weather Service in Omaha has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Western Lancaster County in southeastern Nebraska...
Southeastern Seward County in southeastern Nebraska...
Jefferson County in southeastern Nebraska...
Saline County in southeastern Nebraska...
Northern Gage County in southeastern Nebraska...

* Until 400 AM CDT

* At 333 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Fairbury, or 24 miles west of Beatrice, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Western Lincoln, Beatrice, Seward, Crete, Fairbury, Milford,
Wilber, Friend, Firth, Dorchester, De Witt, Cortland, Plymouth,
Beaver Crossing, Western, Clatonia, Garland, Hallam, Pleasant Dale
and Pickrell.

This includes the following highways...
Highway 136 in Nebraska between mile markers 141 and 191.
Highway 77 in Nebraska between mile markers 19 and 57, and near mile
marker 63.
Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 373 and 397.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Temps over the next month per the latest Euro Weeklies...torchy weather across the Plains/S MW, cool pool tries to form near the GL's???  I always felt that there would be more opportunities for troughs near the Lakes this month.  In the end, I think temps will end up above average this month after a very warm first half.

 

Dc51VtGWkAEzmz0.jpg

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Gorgeous "red sky in the morning, sailors take warning" about 6 am in Marshall and BC. First one I've seen like that in quite some time. Maybe 2 or 3 yrs? It's been a while. With some light rain, the sun came up just in time to create a strong full rainbow over BC and a faint 2nd bow. A nice way to start one's Friday morning. Even if it's leading to 2.5 days of chilly rainy conditions for our weekend.  :lol: 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Indoor temp 64F, yup, just fired up the furnace...some places in the U.P. have temps in the low 20's this morning, I thought I saw a spot or two in the upper 10's...yikes!

 

It's da UP, eh?? da Yoopers need chilly brewski's..that's why it gets so cold UP there!  :P

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Chilly morning as temps started off in the 30s. Gloomy weekend ahead. Limited sunshine. Northern MI had freeze warnings. Well, luckily, I didn't switch my furnace to AC mode yet. ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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:huh:  ?? looks more like a strata-form rainer to my eyes

My bad....hopefully, a few rumbles of thunder Saturday evening, otherwise, like you mentioned, rain only.  :blink: 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Per NOAA:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI434 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-120845-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-434 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightShowers and potential thunderstorms will develop over SoutheastMichigan today and tonight as a stationary front becomes organizedover the region. No severe weather is expected. Heavy rainfall andlocalized poor drainage flooding will be possible..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through ThursdayAdditional shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible Saturdayand Sunday as the stationary front remains parked in vicinity ofSoutheast Michigan. Heavy rainfall remains possible during theweekend particularly south of the I 94 corridor.Thunderstorm activity will again be possible Monday night and Tuesdayas an increasingly unstable air mass lifts into the state.

This is one unsettled weather pattern.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wow temps plummeted. We had a solid 20 minutes of heavy rain. This is the soaking we've been looking for here since March. Let's get more of these. 50.4*F.

Congrats.  Missed again here.  Heavy rains right along I-80 and those of us south of the interstate only got a trace.  Farmers are now running pivots on fields to help the crops break through the hard topsoil.  Forecast keeps saying rain chances but those primarily have only been occurring for those I-80 and north (at least here in Central Nebraska).  Hope our luck changes.  I mowed my backyard yesterday and I was getting some dust like you would get in late Sept. or a really dry July.  Crazy.

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Chitown folks, remember the historic stretch of snow back in early Feb???

 

ChicagoRecordSnowfallStretch.png

 

 

This pattern has just began to cycle back through and we will likely see at least 10 straight days of measurable precip during this pattern.  There may be a day where we don't, but overall, a wet and active pattern is setting up.

 

Where do we go from here???  I'm keeping an eye out for the "Record February East Coast" ridge to blossom the week before Memorial Day weekend and there are already signs the modeling is picking up on it per the CFSv2 Week 2.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_20180510.z500.gif

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So much for the 0.5”-1” rains we were supposed to get overnight. Waving to those as they pass south of here. Ugh. High of 48 today.

 

YOU, get all the snowstorms. WE, get all the rain makers. If you haven't noticed, that's been the predominant pattern since last October, lol

 

Aside from that single snowy week via over-running, scoring a direct snowstorm hit wasn't happening down my way. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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SPC has put out the dreaded "potential too low" for the 4-8 day outlook. Mid and upper level flow looks weak and pathetic for next week for any organized severe threat. Will have to hope for some kind of small mesoscale feature to make something out of this pattern. Sigh....

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