Summer forecast contest, year three.

[Phil]

They were at 79 degrees at 5:52 and 6:52. That ten minutes must have been split into two 5 minute increments?

Now the dewpoint is 79 degrees.

 

We’re going backwards. Screw seasonality.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

 

 

Pretty dry in the Basin.  Of course, 30% of what is normally already dry is not that much drier.   I was a bit surprised the temperature anomalies were not larger.

[Scott]

So who won the contest?

[Phil]

So who won the contest?

You’ll find out soon!

[TT-SEA]

SEA

J: 1.4

J: 2.5

A: 0.5

 

OLM

J: 0.8

J: 2.1

A: 0.0

 

PDX

J: 1.0

J: 2.3

A: 0.3

 

 

 

Here are the final numbers for PNW cities:

 

SEA

J: 1.7

J: 5.0

A: 2.7

 

OLM

J: 0.1

J: 2.8

A: 1.7

 

PDX

J: 2.1

J: 4.8

A: 2.6

 

And my score:

 

SEA

J: 1.7  1.4  (-0.3)

J: 5.0  2.5  (-2.5)

A: 2.7  0.5  (-2.2)

 

OLM

J: 0.1  0.8  (+0.7)

J: 2.8  2.1  (-0.7)

A: 1.7  0.0  (-1.7)

 

PDX

J: 2.1  1.0  (-1.1)

J: 4.8  2.3  (-2.5)

A: 2.6  0.3  (-2.3)

 

 

My net score for PNW cities is -12.6

 

I was way too cold... and I did build in UHI to my predictions.

[Front Ranger]

Everyone was too cold. Most of us got the hot July, least hot in June part right.

[Phil]

[weatherfan2012]

FWIW, it looks like the first week of September marked the “peak” of our summer pattern this year. The last 10 days have had the highest dewpoints (24hr running avg) of the year, and the rainy season is still in full swing.

Data from my personal weather station.

More than 5 months of tropical weather, overall. It lasted from approximately May 1st thru September 15th (most likely). We’ve had ~ 52” of rain since May 1st, with another 6-12”+ possible from all this tropical stuff over the next few weeks.

talk about an absurd pattern I can not recall seeing a pattern last as long as this one has been lasting.peaking summer in September is pretty sad.

[Phil]

talk about an absurd pattern I can not recall seeing a pattern last as long as this one has been lasting.peaking summer in September is pretty sad.

Yeah, spring has been trending shorter and fall has been trending longer over the last 20yrs or so. Lots of quick flips from winter to summer between 4/15 and 5/15, and long, drawn out Indian summers lasting well into Nov/Dec in many years.

 

Warm records have been set repeatedly in the Sep-Dec period, and cold records have been set on a relatively frequent basis in the Jan-Apr period. Like clockwork.

[Phil]

BTW, I promise to have this thing calculated with scores posted by the end of the weekend.

[Anti Marine Layer]

BTW, I promise to have this thing calculated with scores posted by the end of the weekend.

Still waiting

[Phil]

[Phil]

Calculated all but 2..so far FrontalSquall still leading, with Tim in 2nd place. Will post the final results sometime tomorrow during my lunch break or after work.

[ShawniganLake]

Calculated all but 2..so far FrontalSquall still leading, with Tim in 2nd place. Will post the final results sometime tomorrow during my lunch break or after work.

Like tomorrow tomorrow?

[Phil]

Sorry guys. Life keeps delaying me..still just 2 more left to calculate.

[Jesse]

Sorry guys. Life keeps delaying me..still just 2 more left to calculate.

I would just stop promising it and not mention anything about it again until it’s actually done. Getting a little ridiculous.

[TT-SEA]

I would just stop promising it and not mention anything about it again until it’s actually done. Getting a little ridiculous.

 

 

If I did this at work... I would have been fired by now!  

[GHweatherChris]

So tomorrow.....

[GHweatherChris]

Maybe tomorrow...

[Phil]

Tonight

[Anti Marine Layer]

Tonight

Past midnight. Beware the sunrise.

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

Haha.

[ShawniganLake]

Phil. Did you ever post the numbers you calculated earlier in the summer, but couldn’t post because there was a crying baby on your plane?

[GHweatherChris]

Maybe tomorrow....

[Phil]

Okay guys, I’ve been busy AF since the last week of August. I barely even have time to sleep. I shouldn’t even be posting here.

 

My schedule clears up considerably starting Tuesday. So until then, it’s unlikely I’ll be able to write detailed posts of any kind on this forum.

[Jesse]

Okay guys, I’ve been busy AF since the last week of August. I barely even have time to sleep. I shouldn’t even be posting here.

 

My schedule clears up considerably starting Tuesday. So until then, it’s unlikely I’ll be able to write detailed posts of any kind on this forum.

 

A quick 10K can do wonders for stress.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Tired of waiting, so I did the calculations.

 

Sorry Jesse, I messed up my calculations the first time. The winner is Frontal Snowsquall with a total error of 21.9 and an average error of 1.22

 

-----------------
Actual Departures
-----------------
SEA
Jun: +1.7
Jul: +5.0
Aug: +2.7
OLM
Jun: +0.1
Jul: +2.8
Aug: +1.7
PDX
Jun: +2.1
Jul: +4.8
Aug: +2.6
CQT
Jun: +0.9
Jul: +5.5
Aug: +4.0
DEN:
Jun: +5.0
Jul: +1.1
Aug: -0.1
DCA
Jun: +1.0
Jul: +0.9
Aug: +2.9

-----
Scott
-----
SEA
Jun: +1.0 (0.7)
Jul: +1.2 (3.8)
Aug: +1.1 (1.6)
OLM
Jun: +1.1 (1.0)
Jul: +1.2 (1.6)
Aug: +1.2 (0.5)
PDX
Jun: +1.3 (0.8)
Jul: +1.5 (3.3)
Aug: +1.3 (1.3)
CQT
Jun: +2.0 (1.1)
Jul: +2.0 (3.5)
Aug: +1.9 (2.1)
DEN:
Jun: +1.4 (3.6)
Jul: +1.2 (0.1)
Aug: +1.2 (1.3)
DCA
Jun: +1.0 (0.0)
Jul: +1.0 (0.1)
Aug: +0.9 (2.0)

Total error: 28.4
Average error: 1.58

-----------
BLI snowman
-----------
SEA
Jun: -0.8 (2.5)
Jul: +2.1 (2.9)
Aug: +3.2 (0.5)
OLM
Jun: -1.4 (1.5)
Jul: +1.5 (1.3)
Aug: +1.8 (0.1)
PDX
Jun: +0.1 (2.0)
Jul: +3.3 (1.5)
Aug: +3.9 (1.3)
CQT
Jun: -1.3 (2.2)
Jul: +0.4 (5.1)
Aug: +1.0 (3.0)
DEN
Jun: +3.6 (1.4)
Jul: +1.4 (0.3)
Aug: -0.2 (0.1)
DCA
Jun: +1.9 (0.9)
Jul: +0.7 (0.2)
Aug: +1.3 (1.6)

Total error: 28.4
Average error: 1.58

-----
Jesse
-----
SEA
Jun: +1.1 (0.6)
Jul: +2.1 (2.9)
Aug: +3.1 (0.4)
OLM
Jun: +0.5 (0.4)
Jul: +1.5 (1.3)
Aug: +2.5 (0.8)
PDX
Jun: +1.0 (1.1)
Jul: +2.0 (2.8)
Aug: +3.0 (0.4)
CQT
Jun:  0.0 (0.9)
Jul: +1.0 (4.5)
Aug: +2.0 (2.0)
DEN
Jun: +3   (2.0)
Jul: +1.5 (0.4)
Aug: -1.0 (0.9)
DCA
Jun: +1.0 (0.0)
Jul: -1.0 (1.9)
Aug: 0.0  (2.9)

Total error: 26.2
Average error: 1.46

--------
Deweydog
--------
SEA
Jun: 0 (1.7)
Jul: 0 (5.0)
Aug: 0 (2.7)
OLM
Jun: 0 (0.1)
Jul: 0 (2.8)
Aug: 0 (1.7)
PDX
Jun: 0 (2.1)
Jul: 0 (4.8)
Aug: 0 (2.6)
CQT
Jun: 0 (0.9)
Jul: 0 (5.5)
Aug: 0 (4.0)
DEN
Jun: 0 (5.0)
Jul: 0 (1.1)
Aug: 0 (0.1)
DCA
Jun: 0 (1.0)
Jul: 0 (0.9)
Aug: 0 (2.9)

Total error: 44.9
Average error: 2.49

---------------
Mr Marine Layer
---------------
SEA
Jun: 0.4 (1.3)
Jul: 0.5 (4.5)
Aug: 0.9 (1.8)
OLM
Jun: 0.9 (0.8)
Jul: 0.8 (2.0)
Aug: 1.3 (0.4)
PDX
Jun: 0.4 (1.7)
Jul: 1.2 (3.6)
Aug: 1.8 (0.8)
CQT
Jun: -0.5 (1.4)
Jul: 0.2 (5.3)
Aug: 0.3 (3.7)
DEN
Jun: 0.5 (4.5)
Jul: 1.2 (0.1)
Aug: 1.4 (1.5)
DCA
Jun: 2.8 (1.8)
Jul: 3.2 (2.3)
Aug: 2.5 (0.4)

Total error: 37.9
Average error: 2.11

-------------
ShawniganLake
-------------
SEA
Jun: 1.5 (0.2)
Jul: 2.5 (2.5)
Aug: 1   (1.7)
OLM
Jun: 1 (0.9)
Jul: 2 (0.8)
Aug: 1 (0.7)
PDX
Jun: 1 (1.1)
Jul: 2 (2.8)
Aug: 1 (1.6)
CQT
Jun: 1 (0.1)
Jul: 1 (4.5)
Aug: 1 (3.0)
DEN
Jun: 1 (4.0)
Jul: 1 (0.1)
Aug: 1 (1.1)
DCA
Jun: -1 (2.0)
Jul: 1 (0.1)
Aug: 2 (0.9)

Total error: 28.1
Average error: 1.56

------------
Front Ranger
------------
SEA
Jun: +.5 (1.2)
Jul: +1.5 (3.5)
Aug: +2 (0.7)
OLM
Jun: -.5 (0.6)
Jul: +.5 (2.3)
Aug: +1.5 (0.2)
PDX
Jun: 0 (2.1)
Jul: +1 (3.8)
Aug: +2 (0.6)
CQT
Jun: +1 (0.1)
Jul: -1 (6.5)
Aug: +1.5 (2.5)
DEN
Jun: +2.5 (2.5)
Jul: 0 (1.1)
Aug: +.5 (0.6)
DCA
Jun: +1.5 (0.5)
Jul: 0 (0.9)
Aug: +.5 (2.4)

Total error: 32.1
Average error: 1.78

------
TT-SEA
------
SEA
Jun: 1.4 (0.3)
Jul: 2.5 (2.5)
Aug: 0.5 (2.2)
OLM
Jun: 0.8 (0.7)
Jul: 2.1 (0.7)
Aug: 0.0 (1.7)
PDX
Jun: 1.0 (1.1)
Jul: 2.3 (2.5)
Aug: 0.3 (2.3)
CQT
Jun: -1.0 (1.9)
Jul: 0.5 (5.0)
Aug: 0.8 (3.2)
DEN
Jun: 3.1 (1.9)
Jul: 0.8 (0.3)
Aug: 1.0 (1.1)
DCA
Jun: 0.5 (0.5)
Jul: 0.8 (0.1)
Aug: 2.0 (0.9)

Total error: 28.9
Average error: 1.61

----
Phil
----
SEA
Jun: -0.25 (1.95)
Jul: +2.5 (2.5)
Aug: 0.0 (2.7)
OLM
Jun: -0.5 (0.6)
Jul: +1.5 (1.3)
Aug: -0.25 (1.95)
PDX
Jun: 0.25 (1.85)
Jul: +2 (2.8)
Aug: 0.0 (2.6)
CQT
Jun: +1.5 (0.6)
Jul: +2.5 (3.0)
Aug: +0.5 (3.5)
DEN
Jun: +2   (3.0)
Jul: +0.75 (0.35)
Aug: +0.75 (0.85)
DCA
Jun: +1 (0.0)
Jul: +1 (0.1)
Aug: +2 (0.9)

Total error: 30.55
Average error: 1.70

------------------
Frontal Snowsquall
------------------
SEA
Jun: +0.2 (1.5)
Jul: +4.0 (1.0)
Aug: +3.3 (0.6)
OLM
Jun: -0.2 (0.3)
Jul: +3.8 (1.0)
Aug: +3.1 (1.4)
PDX
Jun: +0.6 (1.5)
Jul: +4.2 (0.6)
Aug: +2.9 (0.3)
CQT
Jun: +1.5 (0.6)
Jul: +3.5 (2.0)
Aug: +2.7 (1.3)
DEN
Jun: +3.4 (1.6)
Jul: +1.5 (0.4)
Aug: +1.2 (1.3)
DCA
Jun: +0.5 (0.5)
Jul: -1.8 (2.7)
Aug: -0.4 (3.3)
Total error: 21.9
Average error: 1.22
 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Here they are from first place to last place

 

Frontal Snowsquall
Total error: 21.9
Average error: 1.22
Jesse
Total error: 26.2
Average error: 1.46
ShawniganLake
Total error: 28.1
Average error: 1.56
BLI snowman
Total error: 28.4
Average error: 1.58
Scott
Total error: 28.4
Average error: 1.58
TT-SEA
Total error: 28.9
Average error: 1.61
Phil
Total error: 30.55
Average error: 1.70
Front Ranger
Total error: 32.1
Average error: 1.78
Mr Marine Layer
Total error: 37.9
Average error: 2.11
Deweydog
Total error: 44.9
Average error: 2.49

[Anti Marine Layer]

Phil might have calculated differently if he subtracted "too cold" from "too hot", but I always use the absolute value of each difference, because 2 wrongs don't make a right.

[Jesse]

Thank you for grading this!

[Deweydog]

Phil might have calculated differently if he subtracted "too cold" from "too hot", but I always use the absolute value of each difference, because 2 wrongs don't make a right.

You must not be busy AF.

[Phil]

Thank you for doing this. I’ll buy you a drink if we ever run into eachother.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here they are from first place to last place

 

Frontal Snowsquall

Total error: 21.9

Average error: 1.22

Jesse

Total error: 26.2

Average error: 1.46

ShawniganLake

Total error: 28.1

Average error: 1.56

BLI snowman

Total error: 28.4

Average error: 1.58

Scott

Total error: 28.4

Average error: 1.58

TT-SEA

Total error: 28.9

Average error: 1.61

Phil

Total error: 30.55

Average error: 1.70

Front Ranger

Total error: 32.1

Average error: 1.78

Mr Marine Layer

Total error: 37.9

Average error: 2.11

Deweydog

Total error: 44.9

Average error: 2.49

Mr. Marine Layer, thanks for calculating the results and showing how well we all did for each location!

 

Based on my results, my most accurate location was PDX and my least accurate was DCA. Which makes sense because I live in PDX and I'm not really familiar with DCA and the East Coast.

[Front Ranger]

DEN was the only station to pull of a negative departure. 

[ShawniganLake]

DEN was the only station to pull of a negative departure.

Take that, global warming!

[Phil]

Mr. Marine Layer, thanks for calculating the results and showing how well we all did for each location!

 

Based on my results, my most accurate location was PDX and my least accurate was DCA. Which makes sense because I live in PDX and I'm not really familiar with DCA and the East Coast.

Likewise, DCA was the only station I did well at. I sucked everywhere else.

 

I still have a lot to learn about western climate..temp anomalies seem to work very differently out there compared to here, especially in the summer and autumn.

 

Those days in June with huge 500mb troughs that still produced positive departures @ SEA really surprised me.