Summer forecast contest, year three.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at +2.4 now for June.

 

Probably end up between 1.5 - 2.0

[Front Ranger]

Positive anomalies run amuck.

[ShawniganLake]

Shawnigan Lake is close to +1.5 for the month. No UHI here.

[Front Ranger]

Shawnigan Lake is close to +1.5 for the month. No UHI here.

It's a travesty there's no Canadian representation in the contest locations.

[ShawniganLake]

It's a travesty there's no Canadian representation in the contest locations.

I agree.

[James Jones]

My completely unscientific gut feeling right now is that this will be the coolest PNW summer since 2012. September will torch though.

[Front Ranger]

SEA

J: 1.4

J: 2.5

A: 0.5

 

OLM

J: 0.8

J: 2.1

A: 0.0

 

PDX

J: 1.0

J: 2.3

A: 0.3

 

CQT

J: -1.0

J: 0.5

A: 0.8

 

DEN

J: 3.1

J: 0.8

A: 1.0

 

DCA

J: 0.5

J: 0.8

A: 2.0 

 

This guess appears to be winning so far.

[TT-SEA]

This guess appears to be winning so far.

 

 

Too bad the contest is for multiple months... I am sure I will end up in last place when all is said and done.   

[Phil]

Will calculate it tonight. FWIW, July looks like it could be rough on everyone.

[Jesse]

Will calculate it tonight. FWIW, July looks like it could be rough on everyone.

+6 at PDX! Score!!!

[TT-SEA]

Will calculate it tonight. FWIW, July looks like it could be rough on everyone.

 

 

I am pretty happy with my +2.5 at SEA.

 

I would make the same prediction now.

[Phil]

I am pretty happy with my +2.5 at SEA.

 

I would make the same prediction now.

That was my July guess for SEA as well.

 

Will probably be warmer in reality. I badly underestimated the potency of that UHI bubble. Same for PDX.

[Front Ranger]

That was my July guess for SEA as well.

 

Will probably be warmer in reality. I badly underestimated the potency of that UHI bubble. Same for PDX.

 

The 1.6 difference between OLM and SEA last month was on the high end...probably will be closer this month.

[ShawniganLake]

Will calculate it tonight. FWIW, July looks like it could be rough on everyone.

Like tonight tonight?

[Phil]

Like tonight tonight?

Lol, yeah finished all but a few. Definitely tonight.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at +2.2 for July after today... with lots of warm weather ahead.

 

My prediction of +2.5 might be too low.   

[Phil]

SEA is at +2.2 for July after today... with lots of warm weather ahead.

 

My prediction of +2.5 might be too low.

Would actually be a pretty good guess if it weren’t for the artificial UHI bulls**t.

 

#fakewarmth

[TT-SEA]

Would actually be a pretty good guess if it weren’t for the artificial UHI bulls**t.

 

#fakewarmth

 

 

Its real warmth in the Seattle area.    Might not be the way it would be naturally with no development... but the warmth itself is very real.  

[Front Ranger]

Its real warmth in the Seattle area. Might not be the way it would be naturally with no development... but the warmth itself is very real.

You know what he means. "Warmth" is relative - anomalies are relative. SEA's current anomalies are not realistically comparable to ones from the past.

[TT-SEA]

You know what he means. "Warmth" is relative - anomalies are relative. SEA's current anomalies are not realistically comparable to ones from the past.

But very real in terms of tangible weather and not going away.

[Jesse]

But very real in terms of tangible weather and not going away.

Does it make your location warmer? You live pretty far out in the boonies.

 

UHI is pretty localized. The fact that the addition of the third runway made such a dramatic difference says a lot of about the microscale nature of the phenomenon.

[TT-SEA]

Does it make your location warmer? You live pretty far out in the boonies.

 

UHI is pretty localized. The fact that the addition of the third runway made such a dramatic difference says a lot of about the microscale nature of the phenomenon.

 

 

Not sure... but I am assuming the general development of the entire Seattle area has also made it warmer.    Or maybe its just a warming climate overall.

[Jesse]

Not sure... but I am assuming the general development of the entire Seattle area has also made it warmer. Or maybe its just a warming climate overall.

The climate is warming. But SEA and PDX routinely run bigger positive anomalies than less developed stations. That is UHI.

 

I do realize you are doing your playing dumb shtick again though.

[TT-SEA]

The climate is warming. But SEA and PDX routinely run bigger positive anomalies than less developed stations. That is UHI.

 

I do realize you are doing your playing dumb shtick again though.

 

 

I am not.

 

When you say UHI... are you referring to the general development of metro areas or specific development within 500 feet of the airport sensor?  Or both?

 

I suspect both are meaningful.      

[Phil]

I am not.

 

When you say UHI... are you referring to the general development of metro areas or specific development within 500 feet of the airport sensor? Or both?

 

I suspect both are meaningful.

Both are meaningful. The third runway alone had probably added as much warming as all of the regional development since the inception of the station.

 

Based on what I’ve seen in the NCDC data, and what I’ve read from local experts/blogs there, my guess is that:

 

- approximately 25% of the SeaTac warming is a result of regional development/land use changes.

 

- another 25% of the warming a result of the third runway alone. There’s a definite jump there after it was constructed, especially on north winds. Red flag.

 

- the remaining 50% is a result of the regional climate warming (which is notably larger than the global warming component, due to circulation changes that have amplified warming across the western US).

 

Alignment of the stars to torch SEA.

[Phil]

Check out the difference between Baltimore and DCA if you want an example of the power of UHI.

 

It’s incredible.

 

[Phil]

[Phil]

Got it all calculated this morning. Will post when I’m finished working.

[Front Ranger]

Got it all calculated this morning. Will post when I’m finished working.

LIAR!!

 

Starting to look like only FrontalHeatmiser will be warm enough for July. Might even be too cool.

[ShawniganLake]

LIAR!!

 

Starting to look like only FrontalHeatmiser will be warm enough for July. Might even be too cool.

Maybe it’s a really long shift he’s been working.

[Phil]

LIAR!!

 

Starting to look like only FrontalHeatmiser will be warm enough for July. Might even be too cool.

Sorry. Got sidetracked by a lost passport and a ruptured hot water tank (second time in 2yrs on the latter).

 

Delayed, not denied.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at +3.1 for the month now with 5 more very warm days ahead and then maybe 2 days around normal (when Phil arrives) and then back to warm.

 

I think my prediction of +2.5 for SEA is going to end up significantly too cold.    Just my cold bias being exposed.  

[Phil]

That was my July guess for SEA as well.

 

Will probably be warmer in reality. I badly underestimated the potency of that UHI bubble. Same for PDX.

Nailed it.

[Jesse]

SEA is at +3.1 for the month now with 5 more very warm days ahead and then maybe 2 days around normal (when Phil arrives) and then back to warm.

 

I think my prediction of +2.5 for SEA is going to end up significantly too cold. Just my cold bias being exposed.

Every time I spend a few days from the forums and come back and see your posts, I realize how much better off I would be if I spent even more time away.

[TT-SEA]

Every time I spend a few days from the forums and come back and see your posts, I realize how much better off I would be if I spent even more time away.

 

 

SEA is +3.4 now.   

 

Does not seem like my +2.5 is going to work out.    And I padded it for UHI.    

 

How is that an incorrect assessment?   Frontal Snowsquall has this month just about locked up.  

[Jesse]

SEA is +3.4 now.

 

Does not seem like my +2.5 is going to work out. And I padded it for UHI.

 

How is that an incorrect assessment? Frontal Snowsquall has this month just about locked up.

Not responding this post specifically. Just your douchey posts in general. Figured I’d be better off saying that over here since it would take longer for your watch (Dewey) dog to find it.

[Deweydog]

Not responding this post specifically. Just your douchey posts in general. Figured I’d be better off saying that over here since it would take longer for your watch (Dewey) dog to find it.

Watching the meltdown progress is more funner.

[Jesse]

Watching the meltdown progress is more funner.

Tim’s or yours?

[Deweydog]

Tim’s or mine?

Both!

 

You guys are quite simular.

[Jesse]

Both!

 

You guys are quite simular.

Meh. Next!

 

Might need to resort to the butthurt guns now. That should exhaust your bag of tricks for trying to create a self fulfilling meltdown prophecy.