Jump to content

Summer forecast contest, year three.


Phil

Recommended Posts

Trying to do an excel table w/ rankings and calculations of what leaders need to win. Some close calls in there.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Starting a bit here, but there’s been an absurd amount of rain here since May 1st. Will probably be tough to run large anomalies at DCA with everything so waterlogged.

 

Looks like 45 - 46” of rain here since 5/1:

 

5LZimPy.jpg

 

A flash flood apparently roared thru our backyard while we were gone. Mulch and soil washed away along with some cheap old furniture stored under the gazebo. Neighbor says it was 1-2 feet deep. Luckily it was just below our foundation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Starting a bit here, but there’s been an absurd amount of rain here since May 1st. Will probably be tough to run large anomalies at DCA with everything so waterlogged.

 

Looks like 45 - 46” of rain here since 5/1:

 

5LZimPy.jpg

 

A flash flood apparently roared thru our backyard while we were gone. Mulch and soil washed away along with some cheap old furniture stored under the gazebo. Neighbor says it was 1-2 feet deep. Luckily it was just below our foundation.

We've only gotten 1.22" of rain since May 1st. Which is 2.68% of what you have received. Pretty extreme difference right there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Tabulating the results to-date, but somehow I lost the link to downtown LA (CTQ). Does anybody have it?

 

Another fun fact: Since the solstice on June 21st, DCA has only seen 9 lows below 70*F. And most of those were scrapers. Brutal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just looking at SEA... I think I need to work on my cold bias.    :)

 

My forecast (actual):

 

SEA
J: 1.4   (1.7)
J: 2.5   (5.0)
A: 0.5   (3.7)

 

I am estimating SEA to date for August including the +10 today.   And it will likely come down significantly over the next week... maybe down to +2.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didn’t SEA have a faulty sensor or something? Cliff Mass did a blog post on it. I know it was reading 90+ on days when I was in the area, and it didn’t feel close to 90.

 

Plus there’s the antecedent UHI + third runway issue. So you can probably bet the majority of that warm anomaly is artificial. #FakeWarmth

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didn’t SEA have a faulty sensor or something? Cliff Mass did a blog post on it. I know it was reading 90+ on days when I was in the area, and it didn’t feel close to 90.

 

Plus there’s the antecedent UHI + third runway issue. So you can probably bet the majority of that warm anomaly is artificial. #FakeWarmth

 

They tested the sensor at SEA and it was actually reading a little cooler than reality.  

 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/its-hot-but-is-it-really-90-degree-hot-in-seattle

 

The National Weather Service sent out a technician to check out the weather station at the airport after UW Professor and weather blogger Cliff Mass posted a blog speculating the station was reading temperatures hotter than it should. Tests showed the thermometer was actually recording temperatures between .6 and .82 degrees cooler than it should.

 

I know about UHI and built that into my forecast.   My forecast for OLM was cooler in every month.    Even accounting for UHI... I was way too cold this summer.

 

And there was nothing "fake" about our hot July.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They tested the sensor at SEA and it was actually reading a little cooler than reality.

 

I know about UHI and built that into my forecast. My forecast for OLM was cooler in every month. Even accounting for UHI... I was way too cold this summer.

 

And there was nothing "fake" about our hot July. ;)

OLM only ran +2.8 in July and +0.1 in June. That +5 at SEA is a UHI-induced joke.

 

And if the sensor was running cold despite being a warm regional outlier, that simply speaks to SEA being unrepresentative of the majority of the region as far as climate norms are concerned. It’s certainly not representative of your backyard.

 

It’s a joke.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OLM only ran +2.8 in July and +0.1 in June. That +5 at SEA is a UHI-induced joke.

 

And if the sensor was running cold despite being a warm regional outlier, that simply speaks to SEA being unrepresentative of the majority of the region as far as climate norms are concerned. It’s certainly not representative of your backyard.

 

It’s a joke.

 

It was warmer here than at SEA on numerous days in July.   On a few days it was warmer here by more than 5 degrees.

 

And it was a very warm month across the entire region... consistently warm as well.      

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was in West Seattle on several of those supposed 90+ days. And I can tell you right off the bat, it wasn’t even close to 90 (except in the Sun over pavement...maybe).

 

But no way in hell would any properly-cited station have read 90+ in those conditions. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I in West Seattle on many of those supposed 90+ days.

 

I can tell you off the bat, it wasn’t even close to 90 (except

in the Sun over pavement..maybe).

 

:lol:

 

You are being a complete idiot now.   Are you drinking tonight?

 

It was 70, 74, 79, and 86 at SEA on the first 4 days of your trip.     Then you were off to Hippa Island and Leavenworth... and then it was August. 

 

And Everett is one of the coolest spots in the region... and not representative at all of the Seattle area.   It can easily be 10 degrees cooler there than most other places.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:lol:

 

You are being a complete idiot now. Are you drinking tonight?

 

It was 70, 74, 79, and 86 at SEA on the first 4 days of your trip.

When I got back from Hippa, doofus. I was in Seattle until August 6th, after a brief excursion to Leavenworth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, I was in Seattle from 7/19 - 23, again 7/29-30, then once more from 8/4-6. The only day that could have conceivably approached 90*F was the day I got back from Hippa (7/29) and that was very borderline. I was outside a lot that day too.

 

The rest were nowhere close.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, I was in Seattle from 7/19 - 23, again 7/29-30, then once more from 8/4-6. The only day that could have conceivably approached 90*F was the day I got back from Hippa (7/29) and that was very borderline. I was outside a lot that day too.

 

The rest were nowhere close.

 

Guess what... 7/29 is the only day you listed that did hit 90 at SEA.    :lol:

 

But I am sure your feelings as you move all over town through different microclimates is really the most accurate way to determine what the real temperature was at the Seattle airport where the readings are taken.

 

Are you high or drunk... this is silly talk.  

 

If you were around Everett... then you can subtract 5-7 degrees on any warm summer day.   Same thing with anywhere near the water like West Seattle.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guess what... 7/29 is the only day you listed that did hit 90 at SEA. :lol:

 

But I am sure your feelings as you move all over town through different microclimates is really the most accurate way to determine what the real temperature was at the Seattle airport where the readings are taken.

 

Are you high or drunk... this is silly talk.

 

If you were around Everett... then you can subtract 5-7 degrees on any warm summer day. Same thing with anywhere near the water like West Seattle.

I’m sober, thanks. 7/23 supposedly hit 90 too. Lots of 89’s in there as well. And while I wasn’t everywhere simultaneously, I spent time in Everett, West Seattle, and downtown. And not once (except on the 29th) did it feel even *remotely* close to 90 degrees outside.

 

That’s all I can say. Pretty obvious SEA is a UHI-skewed hotbox.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m sober, thanks. 7/23 supposedly hit 90 too. Lots of 89’s in there as well. And while I wasn’t everywhere simultaneously, I spent time in Everett, West Seattle, and downtown. And not once (except on the 29th) did it feel even *remotely* close to 90 degrees outside.

 

That’s all I can say. Pretty obvious SEA is a UHI-skewed hotbox.

 

It was only above 90 for a couple hours at SEA while you were here.   

 

It was likely in the low 80s in Everett and West Seattle when it was in the upper 80s at SEA and also in the upper 80s at my house.    That is how it works around here on warm summer days.    

 

Your temperature feelings in Everett and West Seattle does not mean it was not actually warmer elsewhere.    Because it was... as usual.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, that SeaTac microclimate is a fickle b*tch. Funny how SEA and Tim’s backyard at 1600ft elevation are consistently the two warmest locations on the westside.

 

#FakeWarmth #RunawayRunways

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, that SeaTac microclimate is a fickle b*tch. Funny how SEA and Tim’s backyard at 1600ft elevation are consistently the two warmest locations on the westside.

 

#FakeWarmth #RunawayRunways

Your trolling is so weak.

 

Jesse is much better... with his actual knowledge of our region.

 

And I live at 1,000 feet... just 570 feet higher than SEA.

 

North Bend and SEA are at the same elevation. The highest point in DC is the same elevation as North Bend.

 

There were several days in July with weak onshore flow and clouds for part of the day at SEA that were actually much warmer out here. Elevation and greater distance from the water is an advantage on many summer days. Your weak trolling does not change that. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They tested the sensor at SEA and it was actually reading a little cooler than reality.  

 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/its-hot-but-is-it-really-90-degree-hot-in-seattle

 

The National Weather Service sent out a technician to check out the weather station at the airport after UW Professor and weather blogger Cliff Mass posted a blog speculating the station was reading temperatures hotter than it should. Tests showed the thermometer was actually recording temperatures between .6 and .82 degrees cooler than it should.

 

I know about UHI and built that into my forecast.   My forecast for OLM was cooler in every month.    Even accounting for UHI... I was way too cold this summer.

 

And there was nothing "fake" about our hot July.   ;)

 

 

OLM only ran +2.8 in July and +0.1 in June. That +5 at SEA is a UHI-induced joke.

 

And if the sensor was running cold despite being a warm regional outlier, that simply speaks to SEA being unrepresentative of the majority of the region as far as climate norms are concerned. It’s certainly not representative of your backyard.

 

It’s a joke.

 

Phil, of course, is way off in most of this microclimate discussion. The post above, however, is accurate.

 

Testing the SEA sensor on one day (without doing any A/B tests at other major stations) does not prove that SEA's anomalies are an accurate representation of the area, or that they aren't significantly enhanced by UHI. SEA would not consistently have the warmest or near warmest anomaly for the region month after month in the warm season if that were the case.

 

SEA's anomalies (not the actual temps) are a joke.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand Jared... I started this by saying that I built in the UHI for SEA into my forecast and made each month significantly warmer than OLM.   Its 1-2 degrees warmer at SEA due to UHI.

 

And Phil's comments are comically inaccurate.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand Jared... I started this by saying that I built in the UHI for SEA into my forecast and made each month significantly warmer than OLM. Its 1-2 degrees warmer at SEA due to UHI.

 

And Phil's comments are comically inaccurate.

The post I cited was accurate, but you still disputed it.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEA's anomalies (not the actual temps) are a joke.

:huh:

 

If their temperature anomalies are a joke, then their temperatures must also be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:huh:

 

If their temperature anomalies are a joke, then their temperatures must also be.

 

 

No... there is a difference between UHI and a bad sensor.

 

UHI is very real and produces actual temperatures that are warmer than it would be without any development.    The temperature readings can be perfectly accurate and still influenced by UHI.

 

A bad sensor means that the readings do not represent the actual air temperature.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No... there is a difference between UHI and a bad sensor.

 

UHI is very real and produces actual temperatures that are warmer than it would be without any development. The temperature readings can be perfectly accurate and still influenced by UHI.

 

A bad sensor means that the readings do not represent the actual air temperature.

UHI skewed temps (or runway skewed temps) are fake temps in my book.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UHI skewed temps (or runway skewed temps) are fake temps in my book.

 

But UHI and sensor issues are two very different things.   

 

Jared has estimated the UHI effect at SEA is probably around 1-2 degrees.

 

So what would have been an 85-degree day 40 years ago is now actually 86 or 87 degrees.     Its not the difference between it being cold and hot like you imply... while running around south Everett which is naturally cooler than SEA by 5-7 degrees on most days because of geography.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your trolling is so weak.

 

Jesse is much better... with his actual knowledge of our region.

 

And I live at 1,000 feet... just 570 feet higher than SEA.

 

North Bend and SEA are at the same elevation. The highest point in DC is the same elevation as North Bend.

 

There were several days in July with weak onshore flow and clouds for part of the day at SEA that were actually much warmer out here. Elevation and greater distance from the water is an advantage on many summer days. Your weak trolling does not change that. :)

 

 

Bumped up so Phil actually reads it.    I might have to put my elevation in my signature!  

 

My elevation varies WILDLY per Phil.   Up to 5,000 feet sometimes when he is intoxicated or incoherent.  :lol:   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But UHI and sensor issues are two very different things.

 

Jared has estimated the UHI effect at SEA is probably around 1-2 degrees.

 

So what would have been an 85-degree day 40 years ago is now actually 86 or 87 degrees. Its not the difference between it being cold and hot like you imply... while running around south Everett which is naturally cooler than SEA by 5-7 degrees on most days because of geography. ;)

It’s been more like 2-3 degrees this summer.

 

Funny how no matter how outrageous the SEA-effect is, your location always matches said variance on the warm side. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bumped up so Phil actually reads it. I might have to put my elevation in my signature!

 

My elevation varies WILDLY per Phil. Up to 5,000 feet sometimes when he is intoxicated or incoherent. :lol:

And you say my trolling is weak? Lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s been more like 2-3 degrees this summer.

 

Funny how no matter how outrageous the SEA-effect is, your location always matches said variance on the warm side. ;)

 

That is not true.   I don't keep track of the temperature anomaly here compared to the long term average.     

 

I know there are numerous situations in the summer when its warmer in this area (and the entire east side of the Seattle area) than at SEA proper because we are farther away from the Sound.   The opposite is true when its troughy in the summer.   And it averages out be about the same overall. 

 

That is a fact that you would understand if you lived out here.    But you just assume I live on the side of Mount Rainier without understanding the details.   :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When its troughy in the summer... I am the first person to point out that its worse (colder/wetter) here than in Seattle.    Its not always the same or warmer than Seattle.   I have made that abundantly clear over the years and Jared will always remind me that its nicer in Seattle during those times.  :)

 

The flip side of that is when its not troughy in the summer... then it can be as warm or even warmer than SEA here.    I point out those times as well. 

 

I am attacked by Jared for complaining that its colder/wetter here than in Seattle at times... and attacked by Phil for saying its just as warm (or warmer) than SEA at other times.     But both actually happen!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think FrontalHeatSquall is gonna win, but I’ll post the numbers anyway when the month concludes.

 

DCA might sink him in the home stretch. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DCA just missed recording its latest 80+ low on record this morning. Dropped to 79 for like 10 minutes, then jumped back into the 80s.

 

Might do it tonight, though. Racking up those positive departures!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DCA just missed recording its latest 80+ low on record this morning. Dropped to 79 for like 10 minutes, then jumped back into the 80s.

 

Might do it tonight, though. Racking up those positive departures!

They were at 79 degrees at 5:52 and 6:52. That ten minutes must have been split into two 5 minute increments?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They were at 79 degrees at 5:52 and 6:52. That ten minutes must have been split into two 5 minute increments?

No they weren’t..the 5min updates for ASOS stations run on 1.25*F intervals and are rounded up every third degree.

 

Look at the metadata for the raw observations (down to two decimal places).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...